Aggregate level forecasting of the 2010 general election in Britain: The Seats-Votes model

The Seats-Votes model forecasts party seat shares in the House of Commons using data from general elections and opinion polls between 1945 and 2009. The model is built on a generalisation of the cube rule which provided a fairly accurate method of translating votes into seats when Britain was effectively a two party system prior to the 1970s. It combines past information on seat shares in the current Parliament with voting intention data six months prior to the general election to forecast seat shares. Applied to the task of forecasting the outcome of a general election in early May of 2010, it predicts a hung Parliament, with the Conservatives as the largest party. The relatively small sample used to estimate the model means that predictions about the size of the parties in Parliament are quite tentative, though predictions about the likelihood of a hung Parliament are more certain.     

Narrative identity and offender rehabilitation

The rehabilitation of offenders is an evaluative and capability-building process and is concerned with promoting primary goods and managing risk. At the heart of this process is the construction of a more adaptive narrative identity and the acquisition of capabilities to enable offenders to secure important values in their postrelease environments. In this article, the authors examine the idea of narrative identity and its relationship to values and to assessment and treatment.     

Where in the world is South Africa? Lecture by Ambassador Tony Leon 14 February 2013

Most of the current constructs which theoretically underpin foreign policy for this country are either overblown or incoherent; they do not appropriately define or advance or prioritise South Africa's national interests abroad, nor do they acknowledge the tensions embedded in the clash between normative policies and realpolitik. Drawing from ‘real time’ experiences in international diplomacy, this lecture explores some of the dilemmas that South Africa, as a middle-range power in the world, confronts in its international engagements. The cost-effectiveness of South Africa's global projection is also examined, and some practical reforms to achieve better results in the current age of austerity suggested.     

Toward a comprehensive theory of child sexual abuse: A theory knitting perspective

Abstract

In recent years a number of multifactorial theories of child sexual abuse have been developed. The most influential are Finkelhor's (1984) Precondition Model of child sexual abuse; Hall and Hirschman's (1992) Quadripartite Model; and Marshall and Barbaree's Integrated Theory (1990). While all three of these important theories have a number of strengths, each has serious weaknesses that limit its ability to provide a satisfactory explanation of child sexual abuse. In this paper we attempt to integrate the best elements of the three theories into a comprehensive etiological theory, or at least the beginnings of such a theory. After outlining the concept of theory knitting we briefly summarise each of the multifactorial theories and their major strengths and weaknesses. We then develop a comprehensive theoretical framework (the Pathways Model) integrating both the overlapping and unique elements of these broad perspectives with some additional concepts derived from various psychological domains. In the final section of the paper we consider the adequacy of the Pathways Model.     

A critique of hall and hirschman's quadripartite model of child sexual abuse

Abstract

The aim of the current article is to critically examine an extremely influential multi-factorial theory of child molestation. Hall and Hirschman's (1992) quadripartite model. This innovative model was originally presented as a theory of rape and later extended to explain the onset of child sexual abuse. Despite its prominent status the adequacy of its basic ideas have never been systematically evaluated. First, I describe the quadripartite model in detail and outline its core assumptions. Next, these ideas are subject to critical analysis and I highlight its strengths and weaknesses. Finally, I conclude with some brief comments about the model and the role of theory development in the sexual offending area.     

Criminogenic needs and human needs: A theoretical model

Over the last two decades, empirical evidence has increasingly supported the view that it is possible to reduce reoffending rates by treating or rehabilitating offenders rather than simply punishing them. In fact, this shift from a punishment to a rehabilitation model is arguably one of the most significant events in modern correctional policy. Criminogenic needs, dynamic risk factors, have been the focus of a considerable amount of research and are viewed as primary intervention targets. Drawing from the correctional, psychological, philosophical, and social policy literature, we distinguish between instrumental and categorical needs. The latter are derived from assumptions about human nature and provide the theoretical grounds for the former, as well as for criminogenic needs. We argue that an enriched concept of needs embedded in the notion of human well being, can provide a coherent conceptual basis for rehabilitation and also avoid the problems apparent in the concept of criminogenic needs. From this perspective, criminogenic needs are usefully construed as the internal and external obstacles associated with need distortion. Therefore, they are directly linked to basic need distortion and the absence of the internal and external conditions necessary for a person to lead a fulfilling life. Finally, we outline a possible framework utilising categorical needs and discuss the clinical and policy implications of our perspective.     

Dynamic risk factors: a theoretical dead-end?

While the quality of empirical research on risk predication, assessment and management in the sexual offending field has been of a high standard, relatively little attention has been paid to theoretical issues related to risk and its conceptualisation. In this paper, we develop alternative ways of understanding dynamic risk factors and their utility in theory construction and case formulation. We would stress that this work is of a preliminary nature but believe that it is crucial that standard clinical and research practices are critically challenged from time to time, and their underlying theoretical assumptions evaluated. Our aim is to encourage researchers and practitioners to look at the issue of dynamic risk factors from a different viewpoint; one that we hope can help move the sex offender field forward.     

Re-Defining Defamation: Psychological Sense of Community in the Age of the Internet

In the era of traditional media, courts typically relied upon geographic constraints, including where a plaintiff lived or worked, to determine the appropriate community in defamation cases. The rise of the Internet has dramatically changed society – easily and immediately linking users across geography while allowing the rapid spread of information through a variety of channels that pose a challenge to the traditional media model centered around editorial judgment and professional ethics. Thanks in part to its global reach, the Internet has allowed users to engage in both business and social relationships around the world. Because of this, a person's need for a good reputation can no longer be confined solely to location. As a result, this article argues that courts must begin to evaluate other factors when determining relevant community in online defamation cases, positing that courts should utilize factors associated with psychological sense of community theory.