The impact of globalization on the composition of government expenditures: Evidence from panel data

According to the disciplining hypothesis, globalization restrains governments by inducing increased budgetary pressure. As a consequence, governments may attempt to curtail the welfare state, which is often seen as a drag on international competitiveness, by reducing especially their expenditures on transfers and subsidies. This globalization-induced welfare state retrenchment is potentially mitigated by citizens’ preferences to be compensated for the risks of globalization (“compensation hypothesis”). Employing two different datasets and various measures of globalization, we analyze whether globalization has indeed influenced the composition of government expenditures. For a sample of 60 countries, we examine the development of four broad expenditure categories for the period 1971–2001: capital expenditures, expenditures for goods and services, interest payments, and subsidies and other current transfers. A second dataset provides a much more detailed classification: public expenditures, expenditures for defence, order, economic affairs, environment, housing, health, recreation, education, and social expenditures. However, this second data set is only available since 1990—and only for OECD countries. Our results show that globalization did not influence the composition of government expenditures in a notable way.     

Death of the East Asian Goose and the Rise of China’s Geoindustrial Policy

China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its associated domestic industrial policies represent a parallel trade and investment strategy that challenges the Akamatsu principle of the Flying Geese pattern of industrial development in East Asia. This paper is positioned against the dominant orthodox theory of national systems of industrial development in East Asia. It argues that China’s trade and industry policy in the 2012–2017 period has demonstrated that government will expand its industrial policy market intervention rather than retract, moving away from the regional economic integration order by moving industrial production and import trade away from the Asia-Pacific along a Westward axis to the Indian Ocean and Eurasia. Implications are that the emergence of China’s geoindustrial policy will subvert multilateral trade norms as China begins to institutionalise its external trade and industrial policies.     

Regulating balance sheet audit: A game theoretical analysis

Summary  The decision situation implicit to balance sheet audit is modelled as a game theoretical model and examined for its behavioural implications. Possible types of decisions are identified as Nash equilibria. The basic game model is characterized by an equilibrium in mixed strategies. Its properties are discussed in detail with respect to alternative scenarios of statutory audit. The regulatory propositions of separation between audit and consulting, on the one hand, and the rotation of auditors, on the other, are analyzed in the context of the game. It turns out that these measures may have contradictory effects on the quality of the balance sheet audit and it depends on the specification of regulatory details and the reaction of the agents whether the one or the other effect dominates in the end. Another proposition to enhance the audit performance is the extension of the liability of statutory auditors. Prerequisites for the success of this measure are that either no professional liability insurance exists or that, if otherwise, deductibles are calculated as a fixed percentage of the loss. The examples refer to German legal rules, however, similar legal rules are valid for most of the developed market economies.     

The communicative impact of terrorist attacks on the financial marketplace: a perspective from the efficient market hypothesis

This study measures patterns following a terrorist attack, from the perspective of market efficiency, to determine the communicative impact of terrorist attacks on the financial marketplace. The Efficient Market Hypothesis postulates that asset prices fully reflect all available information. An important implication is that, because market price changes are determined by new information (or variations in discount rates), it would be highly difficult to “beat the market” with expert stock selection or market timing. Overall, we found that, based on mixed results, terrorist attacks do not lead to a distinguishable pattern in the financial marketplace. Nevertheless, drawing on the Yale Model of Persuasion, these results suggest that terrorists are effective in their communicative goals, and they do lead to a compelling pattern in the proportion of negative returns on the day of the attack. More precisely, terrorists are able to communicate their message on a global scale, thereby resulting in investors adjusting their estimates of value downward. While a possible price correction pattern was found, the lack of statistical analysis performed on the variables, to a certain degree of significance, is a limitation of this study that ultimately renders the results of the study inconclusive.

     

Reformierung der Vergütungssysteme für die Finanzbranche – Eine rechtsökonomische Analyse

Die Vergütungspraktiken bei Spitzenmanagern gelten als Mitverursacher der Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise und stehen in der ?ffentlichen Kritik. Oft werden Spitzenmanager für kurzfristige Unternehmenserfolge mit gro?zügigen Bonuszahlungen ausgestattet, w?hrend Fehlverhalten nicht sanktioniert wird. Eine solche Vergütungspraxis setzt falsche Anreizmechanismen und f?rdert die Risikobereitschaft von Spitzenmanagern. In diesem Aufsatz werden zun?chst die derzeitigen Regulierungslücken im Lichte der Prinzipal-Agenten-Beziehung diskutiert. Anschlie?end wird anhand eines theoretischen Modells gezeigt, wie die kurzfristige Gewinnorientierung eines Managers zu einem Moral-Hazard-Verhalten führen kann. Des Weiteren werden m?gliche Reformma?nahmen diskutiert sowie die bisherigen Reformbemühungen beleuchtet. Mit der Verankerung der neuen Instituts-Vergütungsverordnung im deutschen Recht ist ein erster Schritt zu einer langfristigen und nachhaltigen Unternehmenspolitik erfolgt. Es kommt in naher Zukunft darauf an, dass alle Industrie- und Schwellenl?nder die internationalen Richtlinien in nationale Gesetzgebung umsetzen, damit keine Regulierungsarbitrage zwischen den einzelnen Staaten entsteht.     

Explaining IMF lending decisions after the Cold War

This paper empirically investigates the economic and political factors that affect a country??s likelihood to sign an arrangement with the IMF and the determinants of the financial size of such a program. Arguably the world and the global financial architecture underwent structural changes after the ending of Cold War and so did the role of the IMF. Hence, we update and extend the work of Sturm et al. (Economics and Politics 17: 177?C213, 2005) by employing a panel model for 165 countries that focuses on the post-Cold War era, i.e., 1990?C2009. Our results, based on extreme bounds analysis, suggest that some economic and political variables are robustly related to these two dimensions of IMF program decisions. Furthermore, we show that it is important to distinguish between concessional and non-concessional IMF loans.     

Do the IMF and the World Bank influence voting in?the?UN General Assembly?

Using panel data for 188 countries over the 1970–2008 period, this paper analyzes empirically the influence of the IMF and the World Bank on voting patterns in the UN General Assembly. Countries receiving adjustment projects and larger non-concessional loans from the World Bank vote more frequently in line with the average G7 country. The same is true for countries obtaining non-concessional IMF programs. Regarding voting coincidence with the United States, World Bank non-concessional loans have a significant impact, while IMF loans do not. This overall pattern of results is robust to the choice of control variables and method of estimation.     

Sudden death caused by myocardial tuberculosis: case report and review of the literature

A 25-year-old fit man died suddenly while playing social soccer. Autopsy revealed an infiltrative lesion involving the left ventricle with overlying pericarditis. No other significant pathologic changes were observed. Histologic examination showed necrotizing granulomatous inflammation. No acid-fast bacilli were demonstrated in the pericardial fluid or on histologic examination. The presence of Mycobacterium tuberculosis DNA complex was confirmed by use of the ligase chain reaction technique. The differential diagnosis of myocardial tuberculosis includes sarcoidosis, rheumatic fever, rheumatoid arthritis, giant-cell-containing tumors, idiopathic (giant-cell) myocarditis, and bacterial infections such as tularemia and brucellosis. This case illustrates the protean manifestations of tuberculosis and highlights the use of molecular biologic techniques in arriving at a definitive diagnosis in cases of suspected tuberculosis.