MDS use with crime scene data replicates poorly: response to Goodwill,Alison, and Humann (this issue) and Davis (this issue)

Abstract

Examinations of treatment attrition form an important – although sometimes neglected – component of evaluating a correctional programme's effectiveness in reducing recidivism. Previous research has identified offender characteristics that predict non-completion. This study investigated non-completion in 138 high-risk, violent male prisoners attending an intensive cognitive–behavioural programme. Almost one-third of men who commenced it did not complete the 7-month programme. Most asked to leave of their own accord, or were removed for ongoing offending. In contrast to previous research, no support was found for the hypothesis that those who terminated treatment prematurely were more in need of intervention than those who completed the programme; non-completers did not differ from completers on static estimates of criminal risk, PCL-R scores, demographic variables or self-report scales measuring dynamic risk factors. It was concluded that successful prediction using variables related to criminal risk and criminogenic need depends both on the characteristics of programme participants, and on contextual factors such as programme policies: when high-risk high needs offenders are a programme's target clientele, variables related to risk and need will have limited predictive utility. From a practice perspective, the programme was successful in retaining through to completion a relatively untreatable group: high-risk offenders with moderate to high PCL-R scores.     

Who are ‘The Parties’? Article 31, Paragraph 3(C) of the 1969 Vienna Convention and the ‘Principle of Systemic Integration’ Revisited

Netherlands International Law Review -     

Compliance and Conflict Management in the European Union: Nordic Exceptionalism

Why and to what extent do states differ in their implementation of international norms? Furthermore, why and to what extent do states differ in their mode of resolving conflicts regarding non‐implementation of international norms? In this article the empirical focus is on implementation of Community legislation by the member states of the European Union (EU) and the European Free Trade Association (EFTA). The analysis shows that over time there has been an overall reduction in the deficit in transposition, but the number of conflicts regarding non‐implementation has increased in the same period. While states converge on transposition, they diverge regarding their mode of handling conflicts related to non‐implementation. In general, the larger member states more frequently use court rulings to settle such conflicts. By contrast, the smaller states, and in particular the Nordic states, pursue a more consensus‐seeking approach, with limited use of courts. These observations indicate that domestic traditions and styles of decision making are more important for explaining variation than the enforcement capacity of the European institutions, and the extent of participation and power in decision making at the European level.     

Should I Stay or Should I Go Now? Voluntary Retirement from Danish Local Government

Why do politicians choose to retire voluntarily from a position they have been working hard to get? It is argued in this article that the institutional setting of the elected assemblies influences the direct, as well as the alternative costs and benefits of having a political career and hence the patterns of voluntary retirement. Drawing on previous research from the United States Congress, this is explored in a new empirical setting: local government in Denmark. The results show that positions at the labour market matter as private‐sector employees are more likely to retire than public‐sector employees. Furthermore, internal institutional factors matter. Holding an institutional position such as chairing a committee makes retirement less likely. Furthermore, seniority makes the councillors more likely to retire when age is controlled for – a result not found in national studies. However, councillors who reach a high‐ranking position at an early stage are not more likely to quit with seniority than those who do not reach such a position. A high personal share of votes decreases voluntary retirement. In contrast to previous findings, the ideological distance from the ruling party does not play a role. This may be due to norms of consensus in the local councils.     

Digital forensic osteology--possibilities in cooperation with the Virtopsy project

In forensic pathology, the reactions that occur in the body from somatic death to cell death are commonly termed "supravital reactions". There are many reports of grossly visible and microscopic supravital reactions; however, few papers are available on the supravital reaction concerning gene expression. The aim of this study was to examine the gene expression of immediate early genes (IEGs) including c-fos, fos-B and c-jun in mechanically asphyxiated mouse brain and lung after somatic death and to identify the IEGs expressed at the point of supravital reaction in the brain and lung. Our results confirm that the expression of IEGs changed after death during supravital reaction and that the alterations differed according to the cause of death and the types of organ examined. In addition, IEG expression significantly increased following mechanical asphyxia. These results suggest that there is a specific pattern of gene expression following asphyxia. It is therefore important to identify the specific genes involved, as this may give significant information to aid in the post-mortem diagnosis of strangulation and hanging.     

Foreign Policy as Battlefield: A Study of National Interest and Party Motives

In no other policy arena are party unity and national unity considered as critical as in security and foreign policy. Party unity on foreign policy is viewed as a national security strategy of particular importance in times of international crisis and uncertainty, or as an expression of party strategy and ideological considerations. Through an empirical study of programs, congresses, voters and ideology of the Swedish parties 1945–1993, we show that the presence or absence of tension in the international system does not affect the inclination of parties to take issue on matters of foreign policy. We also show that parties argue just as much about issues that are central to Swedish security policy as they do about issues that do not directly affect national interest. The main sources of party disagreement over foreign policy seem to be ideologically motivated.     

Peasants and the Process of Building Democratic Polities: Lessons from San Marino

This essay challenges the conventional wisdom that democracy must be built upon the foundation of an established middle class, a belief forthrightly asserted in Barrington Moore's resolute dictum of "no bourgeois, no democracy". Taking a lead from Aristotle who thought peasants to be the best social group on which to build a political order that would preserve liberty, I consider the hypothesis that peasants can construct democratic systems of government. The little-known little country of San Marino provides a case study. Its long history serves to demonstrate that the driving force behind the establishment of democracy need not be an educated and wealthy middle class but that a poor and uneducated peasantry can provide this impetus. This is a finding that calls into question the very formula that Western governments, scholars and institutions such as the IMF and World Bank routinely prescribe for Third World countries.     

Using multidimensional scaling for the analysis of sexual offence behaviour: A replication and some cautionary notes

Abstract

Crime scene profiling has received considerable attention, particularly in popular media. First, since low inter-rater reliability would affect the validity of profiling, we tested inter-rater agreement for 33 variables often used in manuals for the coding of crime-related behaviour. Thirty cases were chosen randomly from 146 cases of assault rape with unknown male offenders in Sweden during 1990–1994. Second, we used multidimensional scaling (MDS) with all 146 cases to replicate earlier work by Canter and Heritage (Journal of Forensic Psychiatry, 1, 185–212, 1990) regarding motivational dimensions in unknown assault rapists. On average, inter-rater reliability was good; physical behaviours were more reliably coded than were verbal behaviours. However, a two-dimensional MDS solution with the motivational dimensions suggested by Canter and Heritage was not replicated. We argue for better empirical support for the inclusion of specific variables in coding formats for crime scene information. This is particularly important for analyses like the MDS, since the number, representativity, and intercorrelations of such variables could affect results considerably.