Trade Unions in Africa

The following address was given before a joint meeting of theRoyal African Society and the Royal Empire Society on June 30,1955. The Rt. Hon. James Griffiths, M.P., and former ColonialSecretary, took the Chair.     

The Politics of Forecast Bias: Forecaster Effect and Other Effects in New York City Revenue Forecasting

This paper examines the impact of forecasters, horizons, revenue categories, and forecast timing in relation to decision making on forecast bias or accuracy. The significant findings are: for the most part forecasters tend to report forecasts that are similar rather than competitive. Forecast bias (underforecasting) increases over longer horizons; consequently claims of structural budget deficit are suspect, as an assertion of structural deficit requires that a reliable forecast of revenue shows continuous shortfall compared with a reliable forecast of expenditures. There is an overforecasting bias in property tax, possibly reflecting demand for services. There is an underforecasting forecast bias in two revenue categories, all other taxes and federal categorical grants, resulting in a net total underforecasting bias for the city's revenue. There appears to be a period effect (forecasts in June are substantially biased), but this effect requires further study. The study suggests further examination of the bias associated with revenue categories, time within the budget cycle, and forecast horizon.     

West African Marketing Boards

This article represents the main parts of a lecture deliveredon the 30th October, with Lord Milverton in the chair. Mr. Williamsis editor of West Africa and the West African Review. He servedwith the Forces in East Africa during the War.     

PUBLIC PURCHASING: AN ADMINISTRATIVE CINDERELLA

The potential value of enlightened public sector purchasing policies (as distinct from crude'Buy-British policies) to stimulate industrial efficiency and technological innovation, although long recognized as of fundamental importance to the British economy, has been largely disregarded by those seeking policies for industrial revitalization. This article reviews the present government's renewed commitment to enlightened public purchasing, outlining exactly what such policies demand of and offer to buyers and suppliers; assessing the progress made to date; and suggesting a number of ways in which the impact of the current initiative might be improved.     

ENVIRONMENTAL ADMINISTRATION IN SIX EUROPEAN STATES: SECULAR CONVERGENCE OR NATIONAL DISTINCTIVENESS?

To what extent has environmental administration in Europe been shaped by common secular forces or by distinctive national contexts? Middle range theories of the policy process suggest competing answers to this question, with some implying the likelihood of convergence in administrative structures and others suggesting persistent national distinctiveness. Using data on Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Spain and the UK, we construct a measure of administrative concentration in each country. From this measure we assess the extent of convergence over time among the six nations. We argue that national context is a more important influence than common secular trends, and we identify in each state the political dynamics behind the national pattern. The symbolic role of administrative reorganization is thereby highlighted in the politics of environmental policy.