Measurement problems in official and survey crime rates

This paper analyzes sources of error in the two major methods we use to measure crime in America—official police statistics and victimization surveys. The two produce quite different pictures of the volume and distribution of crime, but it is not clear that this is because victim-based statistics are “accurate.” Each measurement procedure has its characteristic errors, some of which it shares with the other. Comparisons of official and survey data on crime are helpful in revealing the dimensions of these error terms, and they point out the analyses which must be conducted if we are to specify their exact proportions.     

The bird in hand: A feasible strategy for gun control

Policy analysis has failed to guide gun control policy away from its current impasse because analysts have avoided facing several crucially important features of the current reality: the existence of some widely held values in the United States public that favor the possession of guns; the limitations on the ability of public agencies in the United States to enforce restraints on the possession of handguns; and the implications of the fact that so many guns are already in the hands of the public. These factors greatly reduce the possibility that effective measures will be introduced to reduce the existing supply of guns. Some effective measures of gun control may be possible nonetheless, mainly through the mobilization of large metropolitan police forces.     

Mental Health Court Outcomes: A Comparison of Re-Arrest and Re-Arrest Severity Between Mental Health Court and Traditional Court Participants

Mental health courts have been proliferating across the country since their establishment in the late 1990's. Although numerous advocates have proclaimed their merit, only few empirical studies have evaluated their outcomes. This paper evaluates the effect of one mental health court on criminal justice outcomes by examining arrests and offense severity from one year before to one year after entry into the court, and by comparing mental health court participants to comparable traditional criminal court defendants on these measures. Multivariate models support the prediction that mental health courts reduce the number of new arrests and the severity of such re-arrests among mentally ill offenders. Similar analysis of mental health court completers and non-completers supports the prediction that a "full dose" of mental health treatment and court monitoring produce even fewer re-arrests.     

Stability of Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) in oral fluid using the Quantisal collection device

This article details the stability of Delta(9)-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) in oral fluid during collection, extraction and storage. Oral fluid is being increasingly used as the specimen of choice for the detection of drug use in various applications. Studies to determine the extraction efficiency of THC from the collection buffer and stability under various laboratory storage conditions were carried out. THC was extracted from the collection pad and buffer with an average efficiency over 80% and was stable in Quantisal oral fluid extraction buffer when stored at refrigerated temperatures. Fluorescent lighting caused THC losses of over 50%, however the presence of the pad reduced the loss. In the dark, the loss of THC at room temperature was approximately 20% over 14 days. When stored with the serum separators in place, THC losses were significant. After 3 days, THC concentration was reduced by almost 30%, and after 14 days, 60% of the drug was lost and the losses were not concentration dependent.     

The Transformation of the Western State: The Growth of Democracy,Autocracy, and State Power Since 1800

This article uses POLITY II, a new dataset on the authority traits of 155 countries, to assess some general historical arguments about the dynamics of political change in Europe and Latin America from 1800 to 1986. The analysis, relying mainly on graphs, focuses first on the shifting balance between democratic and autocratic patterns in each world region and identifies some of the internal and international circumstances underlying the trends, and deviations from them. Trends in three indicators of state power also are examined in the two regions: the state's capacity to direct social and economic life, the coherence of political institutions, and military manpower. The state's capacity has increased steadily in both regions; coherence has increased in the European countries but not Latin America; while military power has fluctuated widley in both regions. The article is foundational to a series of more detailed longitudinal studies of the processes of state growth. Ted Robert Gurr is a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland and Distinguished Scholar at the University's Center for International Development and Conflict Management (Mill Building, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742). Among his 14 books and monographs areWhy Men Rebel (awarded the Woodrow Wilson Prize as best book in political science of 1970).Patterns of Authority: A comparative Basis for Political Inquiry (with Harry Eckstein, 1975), andViolence in America, (3d edition. 1989). He is engaged in a long-term global study of minorities' involvement in conflict and its consequences and resolution. Keith Jaggers is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Colorado and research assistant in the Department's Center for Comparative Politics, Campus Box 333, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309. He is co-author with Will H. Moore of “Deprivation, Mobilization, and the State,” recently published in theJournal of Developing Societies, and is currently working on an empirical study of the impact of war on the growth of the state. Will H. Moore is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Colorado and research assistant in the Department's Center for Comparative Politics. He is also a co-author with Maro Ellena of a forthcoming article inWestern Political Quarterly on the cross-national determinants of political violence. His current research interests include the resolution of internal wars and the formation of coercive states.     

The “Morpeth Mind” and Australian Politics 1927–1934

The publication of the Morpeth Review between 1927 and 1934 was a milestone in the evolution of an authentic public sphere for Australian political intellectuals. The Review covered several areas of political and philosophical concern, ranging ideologically from Christian socialism and idealist liberalism, through market economics, to reactionary anti‐Bolshevism, within the editorial context of a strongly idealist liberalism inspired by the Oxford liberals of the early twentieth century, and both evangelical and sacramentalist Anglican Protestantism. Ernest H. Burgmann and Roy Lee used the magazine to develop a unique form of Anglican social and political activism and other members of an identifiable group of radical clergy also contributed. A.p. Elkin's writings on Indigenous politics are of particular interest as they can be viewed simultaneously as a turning toward the novel idea of Aboriginal citizenship, and at the same time as a restatement of Darwinist biological determinism and racialism, both lit by genuine compassion and affection for Aboriginal Australians.     

The causal relationship between gang joining and violent victimization: A critical review and directions for future research

Purpose

This article provides a critical review of the state of research on the gang membership-violent victimization relationship.

Methods

This study examines a comprehensive list of published quantitative studies that have assessed the relationship between gang membership and violent victimization.

Results

By examining strengths and weaknesses of the design features of various studies, this article identifies theoretical, conceptual, methodological, and statistical issues that should be considered when interpreting the causal effect of gang membership on violent victimization. Some of the methodological and design issues discussed include, but are not limited to, consequences of failing to establish temporal order, failure to conduct sensitivity analyses to determine treatment effects, use of bootstrapping methods with propensity score analysis, measurement of violent victimization, and corrections for dependence in matched samples of gang and non-gang members.

Conclusion

Suggestions for future research are provided that will help advance the empirical study of the gang membership-violent victimization nexus.