Revisiting prediction models in policing: Identifying high-risk offenders

The use of prediction models for classifying offenders has been a common practice by the criminal justice system. Given the recent developments in criminal career research and continuing evidence that a small proportion of chronic offenders are responsible for the majority of crime, there is a continued need to identify high-risk offenders early on in their offending careers. The present study provides support for the accuracy of an innovative prediction instrument that was developed for identifying high-risk offenders in a rural county in a southern state. Offender risk classification was found to be associated with reoffending across different dimensions of assessment and the high-risk offenders had accumulated a greater mean number of arrests upon six-month follow-up when compared to the medium and low-risk offenders. Policy implications and directions for future research incorporating prediction models in policing are also discussed.     

Pig Organ Energy Loss Comparison Experiments Using BBs

Torso models for ballistics research require that the mechanical properties of simulant materials must match the heterogeneous nature of tissues/organs within the human thorax/abdomen. A series of energy loss experiments were conducted on fresh porcine organs/tissues at room temperature and 37°C, using steel 4.5 mm BBs fired from a Daisy^® brand air rifle. They were compared to FBI and NATO specification ordnance gelatin and a candidate surrogate material called Simulant “A”. Two CED M2 chronographs measured BB velocity. The resulting energy loss was established using KE = 1/2 mv² before and after target perforation. The combined results at room temperature and 37°C were as follows: FBI specification gelatin was similar (p > 0.05) to heart and lung, spleen was similar to NATO specification gelatin, Simulant “A” was similar to hindquarter muscle, and hindquarter muscle, kidney, and spleen were similar to each other regarding energy retardation. These results can be used as a basis for the development of simulant materials to create an anatomically correct heterogeneous model.     

Do Rules Breed Rules? Vertical Rule-Making Cascades at the Supranational,National, and Organizational Level

Understanding where (ineffective) organizational rules come from is of vital importance for both public administration scholars and practitioners. Yet little is known about the underlying mechanisms that explain why external rules may cause organizational rule breeding and, as a by-product, red tape. Using a combination of archival and interview data, the authors empirically study rule-breeding processes in the case of Gasunie, which is a heavily regulated Dutch gas transport organization. The archival findings indicate that rule stocks have increased substantially over time at every policy level. Furthermore, the interview data support the notion that policymakers at different levels are jointly responsible for excessive rule breeding and, ultimately, organizational red tape.     

Reliability of a two-dimensional footprint measurement approach

Although footprint evidence can be taken from the scene of a crime, the science underpinning such measurement in forensic science has not been fully explored.A literature search revealed various measuring approaches, all of which demonstrated either little or no measurement rigour in terms of reliability. The aim of this study was to apply a robust measurement approach for testing the reliability of two-dimensional footprint impressions.Three dynamic and three static footprints were taken from the right foot of thirty female and thirty one male volunteers using the ‘Inkless Shoeprint Kit’. The images were digitised. Lengths, widths and angles were measured using a selection of currently employed methods.An investigation of the reliability of the chosen measuring method suggested high intra-rater agreement: for example, the length measurement suggested an intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) 0.99, 95% Confidence Interval (CI) ? 0.28 to 0.01, standard error of measurement (SEM) 0.07, Limits of Agreement (LOA) ? 0.91 to 0.65.Inter-rater reliability between three operators was also high: SEM ranged from 0.05 mm to 0.07 mm, ICC 0.99.Our study has established a reliable two-dimensional measuring technique that could be used for footprint comparison in further research.     

Why Not Let Kids Be Kids? An Exploratory Analysis of the Relationship Between Alternative Rationales for Managing Status Offending and Youths’ Self-Concepts

Over the past several decades, the juvenile justice system has struggled with an effective response to status offenders and their unwanted behaviors. Three divergent rationales have emerged for handling these youth: (1) treatment, (2) deterrence, and (3) normalization. Using data from over 300 youth under supervision by agencies in three states, the current study assesses how these differing practices are related to youths’ self-concepts. Results provide support for both deterrence and normalization-based rationales over the historical treatment-based rationale. Viewing status offending as normal adolescent behavior (i.e., normalization) has the most beneficial effect on self-concept. Study limitations and directions for future research are discussed.     

A review of the historical use and criticisms of gait analysis evidence

The use of gait analysis is a well-established facet of practice for many professions and a fundamental aspect of clinical practice. In recent times, gait analysis evidence has emerged as a new area of forensic practice. As its use has continued to spread and develop, the area of work has come under close scrutiny and subsequent criticism. The purpose of this paper is to examine the historical use of gait analysis evidence and consider the criticisms of this work. Through the use of the historical records of cases within the public domain it has been determined that gait analysis as evidence was first presented in court over 175?years ago, although it has only been utilized by experts in more recent times. The quality of analysis underpinning such evidence has been variable, and has been undertaken by both non-expert and expert witnesses. The work undertaken by expert witnesses appears to have been both non-scientific and scientific in nature, though there is limited reporting of cases involving scientific approaches. Given the variation in the quality of the methodologies utilized, there is the potential for confusion within the courts, where it may be difficult for the judge or jury to determine the appropriate weight that can be attributed to the evidence. It is concluded that future publications should explore the scientific basis of forensic gait analysis to evaluate standards, reliability and validity, as well as reporting the methodologies utilized in relevant cases in the field. It is also recommended that courts consider in greater depth an expert's theoretical approach and experience prior to admitting their evidence. The publication of ‘Forensic gait analysis: a primer for courts’, although limited in some aspects of its consideration of practice, is a welcome addition to the information available for guidance.     

An Exploratory Study of the Relationship Between Dispositional Aggression and Judgments About Batterers Among African American Adults: Does More of the Former Influence the Latter?

As one way of examining the role of personality in reactions to domestic violence, this study investigated the relationship between dispositional aggression and attitudes toward domestic violence in one sample of African American young adults. Dispositional aggression was assessed using the Aggression Questionnaire (AQ). The AQ purports to measure four distinctive components of the construct. The physical aggression component was expected to correlate the most positively with expressed beliefs about wife battering. Results revealed that individuals who reported high levels of physical aggression were more positive about wife beating and were less punitive in their judgments of batterers. In addition, analysis of scores on the AQ and the Inventory of Beliefs about Wife Beating (IBWB) also demonstrated important gender differences on both scales. Implications of these findings for victims of domestic violence and their sympathizers are discussed.