Small winners and big losers: strategic party behaviour in the 2017 Dutch general election

Abstract

This article analyses party strategies during the campaign for the Dutch general election of March 2017, making use of issue-yield theory. It investigates whether parties strategically emphasise high-yield issues, by juxtaposing the issue opportunities provided by voters with parties’ issue emphasis during the campaign. More specifically, it asks whether parties strategically emphasised issues that were expected to reward them electorally. Analysing voter preferences and party campaign data, it is found that parties and most of their constituencies show high ideological consistency, that parties emphasise mostly positional issues and thus choose a conflict-mobilising strategy, and that most parties emphasise high-yield issues rather than following the general political agenda. Four small parties that won significantly behaved strategically while the social democrats – who severely lost – hardly did. The findings imply that the issue-yield framework can help to explain the election result in the fragmented Dutch multi-party context.     

The Role of Stressful Parenting and Mineralocorticoid Receptor Haplotypes on Social Development During Adolescence and Young Adulthood

Journal of Youth and Adolescence - The development of social behavior could be affected by stressful parenting. The mineralocorticoid receptor, one of the two main receptors for the stress hormone...     

The Longitudinal Role of Self-Concept Clarity and Best Friend Delinquency in Adolescent Delinquent Behavior

Journal of Youth and Adolescence - Adolescence tends to be characterized by a temporary peak in delinquent behavior, and friends in particular play a key role in the initiation and the development...     

Managerial autonomy: does it matter for the performance of water utilities?

The public administration literature asserts that autonomy is central to performance. In this article we develop a managerial autonomy index, which we apply to 22 water utilities in Africa, Asia and the Middle East. The 16 items that underlie our composite autonomy index display a high degree of internal consistency. This speaks for the validity of the autonomy concept. We find that the autonomy scores of the 22 utilities vary widely. We also find strong and positive associations between autonomy scores and six out of eight key performance indicators. Our results support the idea that autonomy is central to the performance of water service providers. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Disposable income,unemployment, inflation and state spending in a dynamic political-economic model

This paper formulates a medium-term macroeconomic model of disposable income, unemployment, inflation and state spending, proposes a theory of qualitative choice to explain electoral popularity in terms of these variables and develops three approaches to the formulation of political-economic policy. The first approach is static, sets the tax rate to reconcile the interests of various pressure groups and yields a political trade-off between the private and public sector. The second approach relies on maximizing the probability of winning the next election and gives rise to a political business cycle unless the electorate votes strategically. The implications of crowding out of private investment under alternative monetary rules, autonomous behaviour of the state bureaucracy and tax-indexation for the political business cycle are also examined. The third approach analyzes the objective of maximizing the uninterrupted length in office. It yields a short-run political cycle superimposed on a longer cycle.     

Plasma,oral fluid and sweat wipe ecstasy concentrations in controlled and real life conditions

In a double-blind placebo controlled study on psychomotor skills important for car driving (Study 1), a 75 mg dose of +/- 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) was administered orally to 12 healthy volunteers who were known to be recreational MDMA-users. Toxicokinetic data were gathered by analysis of blood, urine, oral fluid and sweat wipes collected during the first 5h after administration. Resultant plasma concentrations varied from 21 to 295 ng/ml, with an average peak concentration of 178 ng/ml observed between 2 and 4h after administration. MDA concentrations never exceeded 20 ng/ml. Corresponding MDMA concentrations in oral fluid, as measured with a specific LC-MS/MS method (which required only 50 microl of oral fluid), generally exceeded those in plasma and peaked at an average concentration of 1215 ng/ml. A substantial intra- and inter-subject variability was observed with this matrix, and values ranged from 50 to 6982 ng/ml MDMA. Somewhat surprisingly, even 4-5h after ingestion, the MDMA levels in sweat only averaged 25 ng/wipe. In addition to this controlled study, data were collected from 19 MDMA-users who participated in a driving simulator study (Study 2), comparing sober non-drug conditions with MDMA-only and multiple drug use conditions. In this particular study, urine samples were used for general drug screening and oral fluid was collected as an alternative to blood sampling. Analysis of oral fluid samples by LC-MS/MS revealed an average MDMA/MDEA concentration of 1121 ng/ml in the MDMA-only condition, with large inter-subject variability. This was also the case in the multiple drug condition, where generally, significantly higher concentrations of MDMA, MDEA and/or amphetamine were detected in the oral fluid samples. Urine screening revealed the presence of combinations such as MDMA, MDEA, amph, cannabis, cocaine, LSD and psilocine in the multiple-drug condition.