The Strategist's Curse: A Theory of False Optimism as a Cause of War

This article proposes a new theory of false optimism as a cause of war. Named for its similarity to the winner's curse in auctions, this theory explains how and why established sources of misperception (cognitive, psychological, bureaucratic, and organizational) interact with the selection of one military strategy from a set of alternatives to produce a surprising amount of additional false optimism. Even if a state's general perceptions of how well it will fare in a potential war are not biased toward optimism, this theory explains why its perceptions of the particular strategy on which it will base its plans for fighting that war will be systematically biased toward optimism. Simulations and formal modeling confirm the logic of the theory and suggest that the strategist's curse can sharply increase the probability of war due to false optimism.     

Stealing from the past: Globalisation,strategic formation and the use of indigenous intellectual property in the biotechnology industry

Biotechnology has proven itself to be one of the most promising and volatile sectors in the world economy. From genetic engineering to the mapping of human cell lines, biotechnology is now a multibillion dollar venture. As a result the trade in biological specimens has increased, with researchers continually seeking new sources for specimens. The goal of our research is to explore two fundamental questions related to the biotechnology industry: (1) what has been the driving force behind the relatively recent explosive growth in the biotechnology industry; (2) what has been the impact on the developing world - which houses the natural resources that are the bases for many of these new biotechnology discoveries? We argue that globalisation has pushed governments, biotechnology firms and universities into strategic alliances that have unfairly included another partner in the creation of these new products: the developing world.     

Checking Executive Personalism: Collegial Governments and the Level of Democracy*

The world is facing a tide of “cult‐of‐personality” governments that threaten liberal democracy (e.g., Trump, Duterte, Bolsonaro, Orbán). Collegial executives are a long‐established institutional alternative, predicated upon disarming this very shortcoming in the practice of democracy. These are regimes in which multiple people share power, limiting executive excess. Historiographic accounts regard the collegial executive as inimical to resolute decision‐making and responsible for democratic deterioration. Despite being used since antiquity, there is no empirical research on how collegial executives influence democracy. This paper tests, for the first time, whether collegial executives are substantially worse for democracy than single‐leader executives. The focus is on the only robust polyarchy to have alternated twice between single‐person and collegial‐executive governments: Uruguay. Using the Synthetic Control Method, the paper creates a fictional Uruguay to compare with the country’s real experience. The results show that multiple‐executive governments have had no impact on Uruguay’s level of democracy.     

The Indigenous Land Corporation: An Analysis of Its Performance Five Years On

The Indigenous Land Corporation (ILC) is a relatively new Commonwealth statutory authority which commenced its operations on 5 June 1995. It is new not only in the sense of its short existence, but also in the unique framework enshrined in its enabling legislation that aims to provide improved outcomes in Indigenous land acquisition and land management. This article explores this unique policy and operational framework, contrasts it with past Commonwealth policies and practices for Indigenous land acquisition and management, and assesses the ILC's performance in its initial five years. The article argues that notwithstanding this new framework, the potential for future success will lie in the ability of the ILC to substantially address long-standing issues in the management of the Indigenous estate which now comprises in excess of 15 percent of Australia.