Using multidimensional scaling for the analysis of sexual offence behaviour: A replication and some cautionary notes

Abstract

Crime scene profiling has received considerable attention, particularly in popular media. First, since low inter-rater reliability would affect the validity of profiling, we tested inter-rater agreement for 33 variables often used in manuals for the coding of crime-related behaviour. Thirty cases were chosen randomly from 146 cases of assault rape with unknown male offenders in Sweden during 1990–1994. Second, we used multidimensional scaling (MDS) with all 146 cases to replicate earlier work by Canter and Heritage (Journal of Forensic Psychiatry, 1, 185–212, 1990) regarding motivational dimensions in unknown assault rapists. On average, inter-rater reliability was good; physical behaviours were more reliably coded than were verbal behaviours. However, a two-dimensional MDS solution with the motivational dimensions suggested by Canter and Heritage was not replicated. We argue for better empirical support for the inclusion of specific variables in coding formats for crime scene information. This is particularly important for analyses like the MDS, since the number, representativity, and intercorrelations of such variables could affect results considerably.     

Direct Democracy and its Critics: Support for Direct Democracy and ‘Stealth’ Democracy in Finland

In this article support for direct democracy and for stealth democracy in Finland is analysed. Stealth democracy represents a step towards a democracy in which there would be even less citizen involvement than in the representative form of today's democracy. The authors found that both options gained significant support among the Finnish electorate. Additionally, they found that it is mostly the same variables that contribute to the probability of citizens being supporters of either direct democracy or stealth democracy. It is the people with less education, who do not know much about politics and who feel that the current system does not respond to citizens' needs, that want change. The direction of change appears to be a matter of secondary interest. Political ideology affects which of the two options respondents favour. Right-wing citizens are more likely to favour stealth democracy. Citizens leaning to the left are more interested in direct democracy.     

Attitudes and beliefs about domestic violence: results of a public opinion survey: II. Beliefs about causes

This report presents findings from a public opinion survey designed to measure beliefs about the causes of domestic violence (DV) based on telephone interviews with 1,200 residents across six New York State communities. Findings reveal substantial diversity and complexity among beliefs and interesting similarities and differences across open- and close-ended questions regarding explanations for partner abuse. Most respondents think about the causes of violence in the context of individual problems, relationships, and families, not as a problem with roots in our society or culture. Few believe that women are the cause of their own abuse, one fourth still believe that some women want to be abused, and most believe that women can end abusive relationships. Secondhand experiences with DV were associated with some beliefs about causes of abuse, and gender, age, education, and race were associated with certain beliefs in predictable ways.     

Comparing Known and Reconstructed Circumstances of Death Involving a Blunt Force Trauma Mechanism through a Retrospective Analysis of 21 Skeletonized Individuals

Little is known about to what extent the events surrounding death can be reliably reconstructed from blunt force trauma analysis alone. In this study, we reconstruct circumstances of death from a blind blunt force trauma analysis using a sample of 21 individuals of known death circumstances, obtained from two identified skeletal collections in Portugal. Fresh versus dry bone trauma and probable mechanism of fracture production were identified. The overall pattern of injuries was then used to reconstruct the most likely circumstances of death. Results show an agreement between the proposed and the reported circumstances for 13 individuals (68.4%), disagreement for 3 (15.8%), and similarity in 3 cases (15.8%). Although the significant amount of agreement highlights the potential of trauma analysis, the cases with disagreement draw attention to the pitfalls and shortcomings of attempting to reconstruct the death circumstances from skeletal trauma analysis alone.     

Implementation of the Strategic Approach to International Chemicals Management in Cambodia: effects of regime design

Over the past 20 years, a cluster of international environmental agreements has developed aiming at reducing the risks associated with production and use of chemicals. The Strategic Approach to International Chemicals Management (SAICM) is the newest addition to this cluster and serves to guide efforts to meet the 2020 goal to use and produce chemicals in a way that minimizes significant adverse effects on human health and the environment. SAICM differs from other chemical and waste agreements on several key points: It is a policy framework that is legally non-binding; it comprises a broad scope of activities; and it allows for active participation of non-governmental stakeholders. A central aim of SAICM is to decrease the gap between developed and developing countries in terms of capacities to manage chemicals safely. This article examines the early implementation of SAICM, based on a national-level case study in Cambodia and interviews with SAICM stakeholders. The results show that SAICM has generated a clear momentum in Cambodia and has led to several implementation projects. Based on the interviews, the overall conclusion is that design features of the SAICM—its broad scope, multi-stakeholder participation and voluntary status—are appropriate for the purpose of improving chemicals management in a developing country like Cambodia. However, these features also bring about difficulties in measuring progress on implementation. The future development of SAICM therefore needs to balance the benefits of its key design features with the need to more effectively and precisely monitor progress toward the 2020 goal.     

Finding Partisanship Where We Least Expect it: Evidence of Partisan Bias in a New African Democracy

Much of the literature on political behavior in Africa’s new semi-democracies has treated partisan affiliation as weak, purely pragmatic, or a proxy for other, more meaningful identities such as ethnicity. In this article, I dispute these conceptions by demonstrating that partisanship in an African context, like partisanship in established democracies, is a psychologically meaningful identity that can inspire voters to engage in motivated reasoning. By combining survey data with an original dataset of objective indicators of local public goods quality in Uganda, I show that supporters of the incumbent president systematically overestimate what they have received from government, while opposition supporters systematically underestimate. Partisan support precedes, rather than results from, this mis-estimation. I also show that partisans of the incumbent (opposition) are significantly more (less) likely to attribute any bad outcomes they observe to private actors rather than the government. I argue that these findings are consistent with the predictions of social identity theory: the conflict that marked many African political transitions, and the mapping of African parties onto existing social cleavages, are sufficient conditions for the creation of strong political-social identities like those that characterize partisanship in the West. My findings indicate that Africanists should take partisanship seriously as a predictor of political behavior and attitudes.