Candidate choice before the convention: The democrats in 1984

This paper analyzes prenomination presidential candidate preferences, using data from the Center for Political Studies' 1984 Continuous Monitoring Survey. Among Democratic identifiers, affective evaluations of the candidates were the strongest influence on candidate preference, but judgments concerning the candidates' nomination prospects and electability also influenced candidate preference, as did strength of party identification. The outcomes of particular primaries strongly influenced voters' opinions regarding the candidates' nomination prospects and, indirectly, their electability. Walter Mondale's decisive victory in the New York primary on April 3 apparently led to a bandwagon effect among Democratic voters across the nation; that is, the perception that Mondale was very likely to win the nomination produced a dramatic shift in candidate preference toward Mondale and away from Gary Hart.     

Public policy and health resource distribution

Despite federal health programs of the thirties, the Great Society programs and the establishment of health planning agencies in the sixties, health resources continue to accumulate in wealthier areas. According to a rational decision-making model public resources would be expected therefore to be directed toward those poorer areas with perceived needs. This paper explores the distribution of public and private health resources among towns of Connecticut. Using a rational decision-making model, the distribution of these resources is tested in a series of stepwise regression equations against the socioeconomic and health characteristics of the population. Private allocations of health resources (such as physician distribution) respond to socioeconomic factors while public resources do not show a clear pattern of overcoming the maldistribution effected by private actions. We find little evidence to support the hypothesis that Connecticut's town and state decision makers in health were following a rational model such as is the basis for health planning. Some other more complex model, such as a bureaucratic politics model, would explain better public policy decisions in health resource allocation.Research for this paper was carried out under Department of Health, Education, and Welfare Grant #5-R01-HS-00900. We wish to thank Berton Freedman for assistance with computer programming, and our former Yale Health Policy Project colleagues, George A. Silver, James Warner Bjorkman, and Christa Altenstetter for comments on an earlier draft. This earlier paper entitled Socio-Economic Indicators, Health Resources and Health Status: A Statistical Analysis and its Policy Implications was presented to the Statistics Section, American Public Health Association Meetings, November 16–20, 1975, Chicago, Illinois.     

Social determinism,rationality, and partisanship among college students

This study finds high rates of defection from parental partisanship among a sample of undergraduate students at the State University of New York at Stony Brook, despite relying on students' perceptions of their parents' party loyalties, which almost certainly exaggerate agreement between students and parents. There was a much higher rate of defection among students from Republican families than among students from Democratic families. The pattern of defections from parental partisanship was consistent with the rational reevaluation hypothesis: liberal-conservative self-placement was strongly related to party identification among students from Republican families and families without a party preference.     

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