Expert Opinion, Agency Characteristics, and Agency Preferences

David E. Lewis Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540 e-mail: delewis{at}princeton.edu e-mail: clinton{at}princeton.edu (corresponding author) The study of bureaucracies and their relationship to politicalactors is central to understanding the policy process in theUnited States. Studying this aspect of American politics isdifficult because theories of agency behavior, effectiveness,and control often require measures of administrative agencies'policy preferences, and appropriate measures are hard to findfor a broad spectrum of agencies. We propose a method for measuringagency preferences based upon an expert survey of agency preferencesfor 82 executive agencies in existence between 1988 and 2005.We use a multirater item response model to provide a principledstructure for combining subjective ratings based on scholarlyand journalistic expertise with objective data on agency characteristics.We compare the resulting agency preference estimates and standarderrors to existing alternative measures, discussing both theadvantages and limitations of the method. Authors' note: We thank Tom Hammond, George Krause, and JoshuaTucker for helpful comments. We are grateful to Simon Jackmanand Shawn Treier for generously providing their code and oursurvey respondents for their time and expertise.     

The (Un)predictability of Primaries with Many Candidates: Simulation Evidence

It is common to describe the dynamic processes that generateoutcomes in U.S. primaries as ``unstable'' or ``unpredictable''. In fact, the way we choose candidates may amount to alottery. This paper uses a simulation approach, assuming10,000 voters who vote according to a naive, deterministicproximity rule, but who choose party affiliationprobabilistically. The voters of each party then must choose between twosets of ten randomly chosen candidates, in ``closed'' primaries.Finally, the winners of the two nominations compete in thegeneral election, in which independent voters also participate.The key result of the simulations reported here isthe complete unpredictability of the outcomes of a sequence ofprimaries: the winner of the primary, or the party's nominee,varied as much as two standard deviations from the medianpartisan voter. The reason is that the median, or any othermeasure of the center of the distribution of voters, isof little value in predicting the outcome of multicandidateelections. These results suggest that who runs may havemore to do with who wins than any other consideration. If more than two parties or candidates are expected, then thevote-maximizing position is not close to your opponents, butwell away from them. (Tullock, 1967: 55).     

EVIDENTIARY ISSUES WITH PARENTAL ALIENATION SYNDROME

Expert testimony on unsubstantiated social science syndromes such as the Parental Alienation Syndrome (PAS) has been increasingly admitted in courtrooms across the United States. This is a problem because a trier of fact is making a determination based on theories that are inaccurate or incorrect. To remedy this, the standards of admissibility for expert testimony must be heightened. The broad discretion given to trial judges in determining admissibility should be reevaluated and a new rule of evidence for social science testimony should be adopted.     

Subjective effect of September 11, 2001 among pregnant women: is cumulative history of interpersonal violence important?

Prior history of trauma may sensitize individuals to subsequent trauma, including terrorist attacks. Using a convenience sample of secondary, cross-sectional data, pregnant women were grouped based on lifetime interpersonal violence history. Cumulative risk theory was used to evaluate the association of lifetime interpersonal violence history and subjective impact of the September 11, 2001 (9/11) terrorists attacks. Using hierarchical linear regression, cumulative risk theory was partially supported. Women with a history of only one type of interpfersonal violence reported greater effect of 9/11 than did women without a history, but women with both types of violence did not report a greater effect of 9/11 compared to women endorsing history of one type. These data corroborate the literature in that level of exposure to terrorist-related trauma predicts subjective reaction to the attacks. Future research with a larger sample and standardized instruments is warranted.     

Thinking about the future in criminal justice administration: Trends and implications

This paper utilizes the technology of Futures Research to discuss issues that may confront the criminal justice system in the year 2000. Conceptually, the criminal justice agencies are viewed as a social system which is open to external influence both in terms of organizational design and operation. The specific model of criminal justice agencies is based on the work of Lyman Porter and recognizes three primary factors: 1) contextual factors; 2) structural factors; and 3) behavioral consequences. The specific administrative issues discussed are derived from a series of long term social trends identified by futurist Herman Kahn of the Hudson Institute.     

The Process of Leaving an Abusive Relationship: The Role of Risk Assessments and Decision-Certainty

Seventy female residents of an urban domestic violence shelter were interviewed to examine a series of hypotheses concerning two factors relevant to the process of leaving an abusive relationship: risk assessments and decision-certainty. Participants' subjective estimates of their own risk of returning to the batterer were examined relative to their perceptions of the likelihood that most battered women will return to the batterer, their certainty regarding the decision to leave the batterer, and their status on known risk factors for returning to an abusive relationship. As hypothesized, battered women's perceptions of personal risk for returning to the batterer were biased by unrealistic optimism; specifically, personal risk was estimated as significantly lower than the risk of most battered women and was not correlated with actual risk factors. Further, the magnitude of the optimistic bias was significantly greater among women expressing high certainty about their decision to leave than among women who expressed less certainty. The clinical implications of these findings are discussed.     

Foreign fame is not enough to confer US trade mark rights

On appeal from the Southern District of New York, the SecondCircuit affirmed the award of summary judgment against ITC'strade mark infringement, unfair competition, and false advertisingclaims under state and federal law, holding that the famousmarks doctrine was not incorporated by Congress into the LanhamAct and thus not a federally protected right.