Exchange Rate Volatility and Democratization in Emerging Market Countries

We examine some of the consequences of financial globalization for democratization in emerging market economies by focusing on the currency markets of four Asian countries at different stages of democratic development. Using political data of various kinds—including a new events data series—and the Markov regime switching model from empirical macroeconomics, we show that in young and incipient democracies politics continuously causes changes in the probability of experiencing two different currency market equilibria: a high volatility "contagion" regime and a low volatility "fundamentals" regime. The kind of political events that affect currency market equilibration varies cross-nationally depending on the degree to which the polity of a country is democratic and its policymaking transparent. The results help us better gauge how and the extent to which democratization is compatible with financial globalization.     

Notes on social indicators: Promises and potential

Widespread interest in social indicators—indeed, what may be characterized as a new social movement—has developed among both social scientists and policymakers. The concept of social indicators, however, continues to be diffuse and there are exaggerated claims of the utility of indicators. Deficiencies in both conceptualization and method limit the potential of indicators for such tasks as priority setting and program evaluation. Moreover, the development of social accounts, based on the analogy with economic accounts, is fallacious. Redirection in effort and more realistic claims can reduce the possibility of an eventual decline in work on indicators and enhance the value of the movement for both policymakers and social scientists concerned with the analysis and prediction of social change.     

Characterization and validation studies of powerPlex 2.1, a nine-locus short tandem repeat (STR) multiplex system and penta D monoplex

In order to increase the power of discrimination for human identification purposes, a nine-locus short tandem repeat (STR) multiplex, the GenePrint PowerPlex 2.1 system (PowerPlex 2.1) developed by Promega Corporation and a separate pentanucleotide-repeat locus, Penta D, were tested. This megaplex system includes the highly polymorphic loci FGA, TPOX, D8S1179, vWA, Penta E, D18S51, D21S11, TH01, and D3S1358 and may be used in combination with the eight-locus STR multiplex, the GenePrint PowerPlex 1.1 system (PowerPlex 1.1) that has been previously developed. Three of the loci, TPOX, TH01 and vWA, have been included in both systems for quality control purposes. As with PowerPlex 1.1, PowerPlex 2.1 is also based on a two-color detection of fluorescent-labeled DNA products amplified by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and provides a valuable tool for accurate and rapid allele determination. The primer sequences used in the PowerPlex 2.1/Penta D system are also presented in this report. To meet the "Quality Assurance Standards for Forensic DNA Testing Laboratories" (FBI), we tested the efficiency and reproducibility of the PowerPlex 2.1/PentaD system by several validation studies that were conducted as a joint project among seven laboratories. Validation tests included concordance studies, sensitivity, and species specificity determination, as well as performance in forensic and environmentally impacted samples. The results produced from these tests demonstrated the consistency and reliability of the PowerPlex 2.1/Penta D system.     

Defining E‐leadership as Competence in ICT‐Mediated Communications: An Exploratory Assessment

While many aspects of the dramatic shifts caused by digital government have made enormous progress, the leadership of those who serve the public via electronic means has yet to take a significant step forward. This article addresses three questions: How significant has e‐leadership become? What are the challenges in trying to create a more comprehensive model of defining and measuring e‐leadership? And, based on current knowledge, what skill and behavioral elements are candidates for a concrete e‐leadership model? The authors develop and test an original model that focuses on e‐leadership as a competence in virtual communications (i.e., the use of ICT‐mediated communications) and the digital opportunities and challenges that are created. The results provide strong support for the proposed model. The article concludes with a discussion of a future agenda for e‐leadership research that can be developed in a manner that is fruitful for theory and practitioners.     

An Analysis of Reconciliatory Mediation in Northern Albania: The Role of Customary Mediators

Blood feuds are still festering wounds in northern Albanian society. This study will describe the process and the mechanisms utilised by traditional mediators in resolving blood feuds in northern Albania. It will describe the practice of mediation in northern Albania, and will discuss the reasons why people resort to traditional mediators in blood feuds, what their roles are in the process of mediation, forgiveness and achieving peace and what norms or values are used to influence the parties to make peace.     

Democracy,Al Qaeda,and the Causes of Terrorism: A Strategic Analysis of U.S. Policy

How will the strategy of spreading democracy affect the threat of terrorism from Al Qaeda and likeminded Islamic extremist groups? This article analyzes how spreading democracy would impact four different sets of underlying motivations that lead to this kind of terrorism. It will show that the widespread belief in the power of democracy is likely misplaced because democracy will be unlikely to change perceptions of occupation, will itself threaten Islamic identity and culture, will be unlikely to mitigate economic grievances, and will be unlikely to provide a more legitimate government than one based on religious law.     

Domestic violence and child participation: contemporary challenges for the 1980 hague child abduction convention

ABSTRACT

This article addresses two contemporary challenges for the 1980 Hague Child Abduction Convention: (i) domestic violence and (ii) child participation. It also outlines three components of a global socio-legal policy and research initiative undertaken to address these issues and, where relevant, their intersection. The published literature on these topics, including the children’s objections exception, is explored, as are the ways in which these challenges are addressed within some of the 101 Contracting States to the Convention and through the Guide to Good Practice on Article 13(1)(b) of the Convention. Regard is paid to the data provided by the statistical analysis of applications made under the Convention in 2015 by Lowe and Stephens, and the changes which will occur once the Recast of The European Brussels 11a Regulation comes into operation. The likely impact for 1980 Hague Convention abduction proceedings of the UK having left the European Union at 23.00 GMT on 31 January 2020 is contemplated. Other current international initiatives are discussed, including the development of a child-friendly version of the Convention through The International Association of Child Law Researchers. Training is a key to changing attitudes and upskilling family justice professionals to ensure the Convention operates in a fully child-centric way. This will maintain and strengthen the Convention by keeping it ‘fit for purpose’.