Russia's changing security role in Central Asia

The paper explores Russia's role in security in Central Asia, which analysts interpreted as projection of hegemony. It argues that this role is changing and is shaped by a variety of factors, sometimes acting in contradiction to one another. Domestic agenda is influenced by the danger discourse on drugs and anti-migrant sentiment and urges to detach from Central Asia. Moscow maintains a military presence in the region but is uncertain if it has serious enough stakes to justify a robust approach to security. Refusal to intervene in Kyrgyzstan in 2010 serves as a potent case. Regional organisations echo the non-intervention stance. As a ‘cost-benefit’ approach to security gains momentum, the paper asks if a policy of selective engagement is emerging when only the issues threatening Russia directly will be addressed. The implication can be a security vacuum in the region, affected by ethnic conflict, inter-state disputes and the consequences of withdrawal from Afghanistan.     

Long-term monarchical survival in the Middle East: a configurational comparison, 1945–2012

The survival of eight monarchies during the “Arab Uprisings” has put centre stage the fundamental question about the durability of this subtype of authoritarian regime. Seen from a broader historical perspective, however, the idea that monarchies have an inherent advantage in retaining power is less evident: a number of authoritarian monarchies broke down and subsequently became republics (Egypt 1952, Iraq 1958, North Yemen 1962, Libya 1969, Iran 1979), while others survived (Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates). To account for these divergent long-term pathways we systematically compare the 13 current and former Middle East monarchies. Using a fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), we concentrate on five central explanatory factors derived from previous research – namely, external support, rent revenues, family participation, the monarch's claim to legitimate rule, and hard repression. Our findings highlight the existence of three broad pathways to monarchical survival – linchpin monarchies, like Jordan and Morocco, versus the dynastic Gulf monarchies – and also reveal a possible hybrid third pathway, one which shares linchpin characteristics, but relates to cases on the Arabian Peninsula (Oman and the historical Imamate in North Yemen).     

Is there a “Depth versus Participation” dilemma in international cooperation?

Much of the International Relations literature assumes that there is a “depth versus participation” dilemma in international politics: shallower international agreements attract more countries and greater depth is associated with less participation. We argue that this conjecture is too simple and probably misleading because the depth of any given cooperative effort is in fact multidimensional. This multidimensionality manifests itself in the design characteristics of international agreements: in particular, the specificity of obligations, monitoring and enforcement mechanisms, dispute settlement mechanisms, positive incentives (assistance), and organizational structures (secretariats). We theorize that the first three of these design characteristics have negative and the latter three have positive effects on participation in international cooperative efforts. Our empirical testing of these claims relies on a dataset that covers more than 200 global environmental treaties. We find a participation-limiting effect for the specificity of obligations, but not for monitoring and enforcement. In contrast, we observe that assistance provisions in treaties have a significant and substantial positive effect on participation. Similarly, dispute settlement mechanisms tend to promote treaty participation. The main implication of our study is that countries do not appear to stay away from agreements with monitoring and enforcement provisions, but that the inclusion of positive incentives and dispute settlement mechanisms can promote international cooperation. In other words, our findings suggest that policymakers do not necessarily need to water down global treaties in order to obtain more participation.     

Spaced cognitive interviewing: Facilitating therapeutic and forensic narration of traumatic memories

Abstract

The evolution of the cognitive interview (CI) is reviewed from the original package of memory-enhancing techniques through to the revised (or enhanced) CI, and the cognitive approach now taught to police officers in UK. Many officers are reluctant to apply CI, particularly to traumatised victims. The traumatising effects of crime are examined in terms of immediate response and the potential for an acute stress response and post-traumatic stress disorder, with subsequent re-experiencing of dissociated traumatic memories in the form of intrusive, unwanted imagery. Traumatic memories are described, particularly their accuracy, detail and persistence. The therapeutic potential of prolonged experience of distress while narrating the content of traumatic imagery is explained. An approach to maximising the disclosure of dissociated detail - spaced cognitive interviewing (SCI) - is described and case material presented illustrating its forensic and therapeutic application. The practice and practical implications of SCI are summarised.     

Non-Western Threats and the Social Sciences

As the Department of Defense strives to take the social sciences more seriously in the face of threats emanating from the non-West, it confronts several challenges. Among them, we Westerners cannot model non-Western minds. Nor can we devise a methodology that will accurately capture contingency. We may already be doing our “scientific” best with “pattern of life” targeting. Consequently, DoD should invest more heavily in individuals who already have an affinity for, and interest in, the non-West and who show promise as future commanders and talented analysts rather than spend large sums on trying to devise more comprehensive models, methodologies, and metrics.     

Gender and cultural citizenship among non-Jewish immigrants from the former Soviet Union in Israel

About 330,000 of partial Jews and gentiles have moved to Israel after 1990 under the Law of Return. The article is based on interviews with middle-aged gentile spouses of Jewish immigrants, aiming to capture their perspective on integration and citizenship in the new homeland where they are ethnic minority. Slavic wives of Jewish men manifested greater malleability and adopted new lifestyles more readily than did Slavic husbands of Jewish women, particularly in relation to Israeli holidays and domestic customs. Most women considered formal conversion as a way to symbolically join the Jewish people, while no men pondered over this path to full Israeli citizenship. Women's perceptions of the IDF and military service of their children were idealistic and patriotic, while men's perceptions were more critical and pragmatic. We conclude that women have a higher stake at joining the mainstream due to their family commitments and matrilineal transmission of Jewishness to children. Men's hegemony in the family and in the social hierarchy of citizenship attenuates their drive for cultural adaptation and enables rather critical stance toward Israeli society. Cultural politics of belonging, therefore, reflect the gendered norms of inclusion in the nation-state.     

Impelling and inhibitory forces in aggression: sex-of-target and relationship effects

The finding of symmetry in intimate partner aggression is now generally accepted, but the convergence of male and female rates in these relationships remains unexplained. From qualitative analysis of male and female focus group discussions, we identified factors believed to influence the expression of aggression toward targets differing in sex and degree of intimacy. These factors were then used to construct a questionnaire in which 355 respondents indicated the applicability of the items to conflicts with a partner, a same-sex friend, and an opposite-sex friend. Principal component analysis revealed a clear two-factor structure of impelling forces (tending to provoke or initiate aggression) and inhibitory forces (tending to suppress or diminish the likelihood of aggression). Participants' scores on scales derived from these two factors were used in the subsequent analyses. Men reported lower inhibition and greater impulsion toward same-sex friends than to female friends and partners, who did not differ significantly from one another. Women showed lower inhibition to male targets, regardless of relationship, than to a female target. However, women rated their male partners as significantly higher on impelling forces than their male friends, who in turn were rated significantly higher than female friends. The results are broadly consistent with a sex-of-target effect corresponding to a chivalry norm held by both sexes that inhibits the expression of aggression toward women. The reasons why women are especially impelled to aggression by intimate partners are explored. Disaggregating the dynamics of interpersonal conflict into impelling and inhibitory components may prove useful in understanding and treating dispute escalation and resolution.     

Constructing the Subject of Prostitution: A Butlerian Reading of the Regulation of Sex Work

The Policing and Crime Act 2009 introduced radical reforms relating to the regulation of sex work. In particular, section 14 criminalised paying for sexual services of a prostitute subjected to force. This article will provide a close and critical reading of the official texts relating to this new offence through a discourse theory developed from the work of Judith Butler. Drawing upon Butler’s insights, it will be argued that the official texts relating to section 14 problematically construct the subject of prostitution in a way which maintains and perpetuates certain partial and idealised identities. However, it will be argued that the law will inevitably fail and that more inclusive and productive measures need to be adopted in order to deal effectively with prostitution.     

“How an Ordinary Jury Makes Sense of it is a Mystery”: Barristers’ Perspectives on Rape,Consent and the Sexual Offences Act 2003

The Sexual Offences Act 2003 introduced significant reforms to the offence of rape, amid concerns regarding the low reporting and conviction rates for rape. One of the key aims of the Act was to improve the law relating to consent, in order to assist a jury in their decision making process. In addition, disquiet had been expressed with regards to the subjective nature of the mens rea of rape. Consequently, the 2003 Act reformulated the law so as to introduce an objective test. This article discusses the findings of a qualitative research project undertaken with 14 Barristers in the North West of England, in order to investigate counsels’ opinions regarding the 2003 reforms. Drawing upon data collected from semi-structured interviews, the article examines barristers’ perspectives with regards to the definition of consent, the ‘consent presumptions’, and the reformulated mens rea. In conclusion, it will be argued that while the barristers were not overly optimistic about the reforms introduced by the 2003 Act, they were also opposed to further reform to the substantive law and increased jury directions. Barristers argued that the law relating to rape should remain as simple as possible.