The predicament of elections in war-torn societies

Why do elections held in the shadow of civil wars sometimes generate more violence in already war-torn societies, while in other circumstances they do not? This article develops a conceptual framework based on three clusters of factors to analyse the conflict-generating aspects of elections in war-torn societies: the key actors in the electoral processes; the institutions of elections; and the stakes of the elections. Two types of war-related elections are distinguished: elections held during an ongoing civil war, and elections held in the post-war period when peace is to be implemented. While different in many respects, the two contexts share critical characteristics through their association with the legacy of warfare. Several important implications emerge from the analysis. First, relating to militant and violent actors, incentive structures need to be altered by addressing both the opportunities and means of violence. Second, to prevent inducements for violent behaviour, institutional arrangements – including electoral commissions – have to be crafted with consideration given to local conflict dynamics and the history of violent conflict. Finally, the stakes of elections in war-shattered societies can be reduced through, for instance, constitutional pact-making and the oversight of external actors in electoral processes.     

State of the world 2018: democracy facing global challenges*

This article analyses the state of democracy in the world in 2018, and recent developments building on the 2019 release of the V-Dem dataset. First, the trend of autocratization continues and 24 countries are now affected by what is established as a “third wave of autocratization”. Second, despite the global challenge of gradual autocratization, democratic regimes prevail in a majority of countries in the world (99 countries, 55%) in 2018. Thus, the state of the world is unmistakably more democratic compared to any point during the last century. At the same time, the number of electoral authoritarian regimes had increased to 55, or 31% of all countries. Third, the autocratization wave is disproportionally affecting democratic countries in Europe and the Americas, but also India’s large population. Fourth, freedom of expression and the media, and the rule of law are the areas under attack in most countries undergoing autocratization, but toxic polarization of the public sphere is a threat to democracy spreading across regimes. Finally, we present the first model to predict autocratization (“adverse regime transitions”) pointing to the top-10 most at-risk countries in the world.     

STR data for the AmpFlSTR SGM Plus loci from Warmia and Mazury (NE Poland)

Allele frequencies for the ten STRs included in the AmpFlSTR SGM Plus kit were determined in a sample of 320 unrelated individuals born in the region of Warmia and Mazury (NE Poland). All loci met Hardy-Weinberg expectations. Exact tests disequilibrium analysis revealed only one departure from independence out of 45 pair-wise comparisons of the 10 loci.     

The pluralization of policing and the rise of private policing in China

Policing in China has undergone tremendous change during the economic transformation of the past three decades. This paper describes the plural policing bodies that have existed during pre- and post-reform periods in China. In the pre-reform period the policing bodies were generally public in nature with the public security police playing an important role in providing professional guidance to the other policing bodies. In the post-reform period, there has been a transition from a monopoly of public policing to an integration of public/private policing, with the public security police still playing a leading role in the policing network. Apart from the emergence of private policing (the security service industry), there is also a trend towards privatizing some previously public policing bodies in line with the movement toward strengthening the rule of law and towards privatization in general.     

Quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) methodology in forensic toxicology: Modeling postmortem redistribution of structurally diverse drugs using multivariate statistics

Postmortem redistribution (PMR) constitutes a multifaceted process, which renders the analytical results of drug concentrations inaccurate to be interpreted by forensic toxicologists. The aim of the present study was to evaluate whether quantitative structure–activity relationship (QSAR) methodology could serve as an effective tool to estimate the ability of drugs to redistribute across tissue barriers during postmortem period on the basis of their molecular, physicochemical and structural properties. In this aspect, multivariate data analysis (MVDA) was applied to a set of 77 structurally diverse drugs. PMR data expressed by the central:peripheral concentration ratio (C:P ratio) was taken from the literature. An adequate and robust QSAR model (R² = 0.65, Q² = 0.56, RMSEE = 0.34) was established for 59 (77%) out of 77 drugs. Although the derived QSAR model presented limited applicability, it provided an informative illustration of the contributing molecular, physicochemical and structural properties in PMR process. Drugs with strong basic properties and enhanced molecular size, flexibility, lipophilicity and number of halogens were found to be susceptible to increased PMR. Due to the high complexity of PMR process, further QSAR studies need to focus on structurally related drugs to develop more specific models, which could serve as alternative tools to evaluate PMR for different chemical classes.     

Indispensable,yet Invisible: Drinking water management as a local political issue in Swedish municipalities

ABSTRACT

Local policy-makers’ incentives to address an issue is conditioned by how they perceive public attention. Our study focuses on drinking water management at the municipal level in Sweden. Provisioning and management of drinking water is a responsibility of the local governments. Interviews with local politicians and public administrators in seven municipalities reveal that local policy-makers think that citizens view provisioning of drinking water as a taken for granted service, and also lack knowledge of and interest in drinking water issues. Public attention is further seen as a double-edged sword since engagement in water issues often is a result of problems with water provision. The findings are discussed from a theoretical perspective of the role of agenda-setting in public policy. It is argued that the view of policy-makers of citizens as unengaged negatively affects the incentives to bring drinking water to a prominent place on the local policy agenda.