The Impact of Confidence on the Accuracy of Structured Professional and Actuarial Violence Risk Judgments in a Sample of Forensic Psychiatric Patients

Some previous research indicates that confidence affects the accuracy of probabilistic clinical ratings of risk for violence among civil psychiatric inpatients. The current study investigated the impact of confidence on actuarial and structured professional risk assessments, in a forensic psychiatric population, using community violence as the outcome criteria. Raters completed the HCR-20 violence risk assessment scheme for a sample of 100 forensic psychiatric patients. Results showed that accuracy of both actuarial judgments (HCR-20 total scores) and structured professional judgments (of low, moderate, and high risk) were substantially more accurate when raters were more confident about their judgments. Findings suggest that confidence of ratings should be studied as a potentially important mediator of structured professional and actuarial risk judgments.     

Extra Effort During Memory Retrieval May Be Associated with Increases in Eyewitness Confidence

When testifying in court, witnesses are motivated to try as hard as possible to give an accurate account. This study tested the proposition that extra effort by eyewitnesses during a memory test can lead to higher confidence ratings without any accompanying changes in accuracy. Participant-witnesses answered multiple-choice questions about a classroom visitor who had spoken 5 days earlier. In the high-motivation condition participants could earn prizes based on their memory test performance; in the low-motivation condition there were no special incentives. Although the motivation manipulation did not affect mean witness confidence, the confidence–accuracy and effort–accuracy correlations were substantially smaller in the high-motivation condition than in the low-motivation condition. Furthermore, the confidence ratings for those participants who reported expending high levels of effort in both motivation conditions were significantly higher than the confidence ratings for the low-effort participants, despite the fact that response accuracy did not differ as a function of reported effort. These findings have important implications for understanding how pressures to perform well in the courtroom can affect eyewitness confidence.     

Genetic diversity and forensic evaluation of 10 STR loci in Lodz region of Poland

Allele frequency data and forensic efficiency parameters for 10 STR loci: D3S1358, vWA, D16S539, D2S1338, D8S1179, D21S11, D18S51, D19S433, TH01 and FGA, were estimated from a sample of 207 unrelated individuals in Lodz region of Poland.     

Use of PCR-RFLP for differentiation of calliphorid larvae (Diptera,Calliphoridae) on human corpses

Blowfly larvae found on human corpses are important for the estimation of the postmortem interval (PMI) and other questions of forensic relevance. Some of these species are difficult to differentiate morphologically, therefore a molecular method was elaborated for species identification. Specific fragments of the COI and COII region of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) were amplified followed by digestion with different restriction enzymes. Using a 1.3 kb fragment, identification of Lucilia sericata, Calliphora vicina and Calliphora vomitoria was possible by digestion with only one restriction enzyme using either DraI or HinfI. Furthermore, we sequenced 349 bp (a part of the COI and COII regions) from the same three species and found 34 nucleotide distinctions between C. vicina and L. sericata, 30 between C. vomitoria and L. sericata and 15 between the two Calliphora species. These results aid in quick identification of species used for estimation of PMI.     

Leading the health policy orchestra: the need for an intergovernmental partnership

The past decade provides a useful window through which to examine whether states are likely to provide health care leadership. During this era, states were given increased discretion to set health care policy, they had the financial resources to encourage innovation, and their administrative capacity was at its strongest ever. Despite the favorable conditions, however, states were reluctant to spend their own funds on programs for the uninsured, their efforts to make private insurance more affordable for the small business community were disappointing, and their efforts to regulate the managed care industry fell short. At the same time, though, the most promising innovations over the past decade were in programs financed primarily with federal dollars, administered primarily by state officials, and advanced by an intergovernmental partnership in which administrators at different levels of government prod each other to try and do more. This sort of intergovernmental partnership provides the best model for innovative health policy leadership.     

Y-chromosomal STR haplotypes in Inuit and Danish population samples

Nineteen Y-chromosomal short tandem repeats (STRs), DYS19, DYS389-I, DYS389-II, DYS390, DYS391, DYS392, DYS393, DYS385, DYS388, DYS434, DYS435, DYS436, DYS437, DYS438, DYS439, DYS460, DYS461 and DYS462 were typed in Inuit (n=70) and Danish (n=62) population samples.     

Study of unusual phenomenon of contact firing on gelatine block using .38 Special revolver--forensic importance

Gunshot wounds in suicide cases are self-inflicted wounds. Self-inflicted wounds in suicide cases are usually caused by contact firing and are of great forensic significance. Evaluation of contact wound may be associated with difficulties if the bore gets obstruction prior to firing. This paper investigates the phenomenon and interprets the results of test firing conducted on 20% gelatine block at 10 degrees C, using .38 Special revolver with obstruction of a bullet in the bore. Test firings were conducted in three different muzzle-target contact conditions keeping the muzzle pressed against the gel block in each case. The physical evidence and the wound ballistic parameter namely bullet track, remaining velocity of the bullets and volume of permanent cavity have been studied. When compared with the results of contact firing conducted with the same firearm without having any bore obstruction under similar conditions, it has been found that the physical evidence and the wound ballistic parameters would be helpful for interpretation of such unusual incidents for forensic inference.