Natural Disasters and Political Participation: Evidence from the 2002 and 2013 Floods in Germany

How do natural disasters affect electoral participation? The existing social science literature offers contradictory predictions. A considerable body of research in sociology and psychology suggests that traumatic events can inspire pro-social behaviour, which might increase turnout. Yet, political science has long held that even minor changes to participation costs of low benefit activities can lead to considerable drops in civic engagement. Consequently, natural disasters should reduce electoral participation. We show how these distinct views can be jointly analysed within the Riker–Ordeshook model of voting. This paper then reports results on the impact of the 2002 and 2013 floods in Germany on turnout in federal and state elections in Saxony and Bavaria, conducted few weeks after the floods. Analysing community level turnout data, and drawing on a difference-in-differences framework, we find that flood exposure has a consistent negative effect on turnout. This indicates that the increase in the costs of voting outweighed any increase in political engagement in our case and stands in contrast to findings from developing contexts, where flood management was convincingly linked to electoral participation.     

The Threat Environment Created by International Terrorism from the German Police Perspective

International terrorism motivated by Islamist ideology poses completely new challenges to the security authorities of the affected states in terms of manner of commission and impact. The present contribution describes the threat created by international terrorism from the German police perspective. It begins by describing the threat represented by the terrorist crime phenomenon in terms of motivation, perpetrator and crime profiles, and organisational structure. This is followed by comments on how and to what extent international terrorism threatens German interests, as well as how German legislators have reacted. However, the main emphasis is placed on the counter-strategies of the German security authorities, in particular on mutual networking and intensified efforts to close ranks with other actors engaged in the battle against international terrorism.     

Modification of hematoma findings in the breast region

Subcutaneous bruises caused by blunt injury are common findings in medicolegal case work. If the hematoma involves the anterior thoracic wall, bruises are mostly absent in the region of the nipples and the surrounding areola. A similar phenomenon has already been described for hypostatic skin hemorrhages. A possible explanation for both phenomena is the special tissue texture in the nipple–areola complex. Based on four cases from the forensic autopsy material and two cases from clinical forensic examinations, the macromorphological findings and the histological correlates are presented.     

Peer Victimization and Social Anxiety in Adolescents: Prospective and Reciprocal Relationships

This study used a 2-month prospective research design to examine the bi-directional interplay between peer victimization and social anxiety among adolescents. Participants included 228 adolescents (58% female) in grades 10–12. Three types of peer victimization were examined: overt (physical aggression or verbal threats), relational (malicious manipulation of a relationship, such as by friendship withdrawal), and reputational (damaging another’s peer relationships, such as through rumor spreading). Adolescents’ self-reported feelings of social anxiety and peer victimization experiences were assessed at two time points, in November and January of the same school year. Peer victimization was strongly related to adolescents’ social anxiety, and relational victimization explained additional unique variance. Moreover, peer victimization was both a predictor and consequence of social anxiety over time, with the most robust results found for relational victimization. Limited support was obtained for gender as a moderating variable. Findings highlight the deleterious effects of peer victimization, especially relational victimization, and suggest avenues for future research and clinical intervention for adolescents experiencing such victimization.

Stability and Change in Party Preference

This article analyses stability and volatility of party preferences using data from the Swiss Household‐Panel (SHP), which, for the first time, allow studying transitions and stability of voters over several years in Switzerland. Analyses cover the years 1999–2007 and systematically distinguish changes between party blocks and changes within party blocks. The first part looks at different patterns of change, which show relatively high volatility. The second part tests several theories on causes of such changes applying a multinomial random‐effects model. Results show that party preferences stabilise with their duration and with age and that the electoral cycle, political sophistication, socio‐structural predispositions, the household‐context as well as party size and the number of parties each explain part of electoral volatility. Different results for within‐ and between party‐block changes underlie the importance of that differentiation.     

Questioning western universality: Sōseki's Theory of Literature and his novel Kusamakura

Focusing on the relation between the literary theory and the novels of modern Japanese writer Natsume Sōseki (1867–1916), this article argues that we need to include more ‘non-Western’ theories in the discussions of world literature. Furthermore, it concludes that a world literature contextualization of Sōseki's theory helps explain how his novels critically negotiate the influences from Western literature in Japan. By comparing Sōseki's theoretical and literary writing, this article shows continuity between his Theory of Literature and his novel Kusamakura, arguing that both question Western universality in defining literature. In other words, the comparison stresses Sōseki's continued preoccupation with understanding the transformation of literatures due to global interaction. During the modern period, such transformation was probably nowhere more conspicuous than in Meiji Japan, where not only society but also its literature was rapidly changing.     

Grand Coalition and Multi-Party Competition: Explaining Slowing Reforms in Gender Policy in Germany (2009–13)

Since 2005, the Christian Democrats (CDU) modernised family and labour market policy by supporting gender equality. Recent explanations trace this back to their competition with the Social Democrats (SPD) for female voters. What is missing from these accounts is a discussion of coalition dynamics. We argue that the drive for modernisation faltered under Angela Merkel's second term for three reasons: (1) coalitional dynamics in the new Conservative–Liberal coalition; (2) the traditionalist CSU wanted to distinguish itself from the moderate impulses of the CDU; and (3) the CDU reacted by moving away from its former ‘social democratisation’. As a result, gender equality policies in the family and labour market slowed and developed increasing inconsistency by indicating not only openness for modern but also emphasising conservative ideas. Despite the inherent contradictions this appealed to many different voters and contributed to a substantial victory for the CDU in the federal election of 2013.