Outsmarting the Liars: The Benefit of Asking Unanticipated Questions

We hypothesised that the responses of pairs of liars would correspond less with each other than would responses of pairs of truth tellers, but only when the responses are given to unanticipated questions. Liars and truth tellers were interviewed individually about having had lunch together in a restaurant. The interviewer asked typical opening questions which we expected the liars to anticipate, followed by questions about spatial and/or temporal information which we expected suspects not to anticipate, and also a request to draw the layout of the restaurant. The results supported the hypothesis, and based on correspondence in responses to the unanticipated questions, up to 80% of liars and truth tellers could be correctly classified, particularly when assessing drawings.

Why bother campaigning? Campaign effectiveness in the 2009 European Parliament elections

This paper explores the effectiveness of European Parliament candidates' campaigns. We analyze the relationship between candidates' spending and their likelihood of success, controlling for a range of relevant co-varying factors. We then investigate whether the effects of electoral spending are conditioned by two variables: ballot design and incumbency. We find that, ceteris paribus, spending was positively related to a candidate's likelihood of electoral success in the 2009 campaign, though this effect is small in scale. We also reveal that the electorally positive effects of spending are observable across both 'party-centered' and ‘candidate-centered’ ballot structures, and that there is some evidence that incumbent spending is less effective than challenger spending.     

Inter-rater reliability of dynamic risk assessment with sexual offenders

Abstract

This paper describes the inter-rater reliability of the Structured Assessment of Risk and Need (SARN, formerly known as Structured Risk Assessment). The SARN is a structured framework for identifying sexual offenders’ dynamic risk factors. The SARN comprises 16 dynamic risk factors, categorized into four domains: Sexual Interests, Distorted Attitudes, Socio-Affective Functioning and Self-Management. Two studies, utilizing three samples, are reported. Study 1 examined the inter-rater reliability of four SARN cases with a sample of seven expert raters. Results indicated high inter-rater reliability amongst these participants. Study 2 examined the reliability of SARN with two samples who had received training before supplying inter-rater data (N=88). Results provided some support for the reliability of SARN. However, strength of reliability was dependent upon the method of analysis applied (percentage agreement, Cohen's Kappa, intra-class correlation coefficients). These results are discussed in terms of their clinical and methodological implications.     

Police officers’ judgements of veracity,tenseness, cognitive load and attempted behavioural control in real-life police interviews

Abstract

The present experiment examined the apparently incongruent findings that police officers (i) believe that suspects show nervous behaviour when they lie but (ii) seem able to detect deceit in suspects who do not show nervous behaviours. It was hypothesized that police officers’ judgements about whether a suspect is lying would not be correlated with their judgements regarding whether the suspect is tense, but, instead, would be correlated with their judgements regarding whether suspects are having to think hard or attempting to control their behaviour.

Each of 84 police officers saw seven truths and seven lies told by suspects during their police interviews. Participants in Condition 1 were asked to indicate after each clip whether the suspect was lying, whereas participants in Condition 2 were asked to note after each clip to what extent the suspect appeared to be tense, having to think hard or attempting to control their behaviour. Condition 3 was a combination of Conditions 1 and 2 and participants were asked all the above questions. The findings support the hypotheses and therefore negate the assumption that police officers primarily look for cues of nervousness when they attempt to detect deceit.     

‘I'm a photographer,not a terrorist’: the use of photography to detect deception

When planning large-scale incidents or bombing campaigns, terrorists often conduct reconnaissance research to identify key targets. This may include taking photographs of potential target locations. Identifying an effective real-time method to distinguish between genuine photographers and those with more sinister intent may be beneficial for law enforcement and security agencies. Participants took photographs in a public place with a genuine intent (truth tellers) or sinister intent (liars). After taking these photographs, the participants were approached by an undercover interviewer (a mime artist) who asked them whether he could see the photographs. Later, the participants discussed their photographs in a formal interview. First, liars were less cooperative in their interaction with the undercover interviewer than truth tellers. Second, in the formal interview, liars mentioned some security features that appeared in the photographs more than truth tellers. The findings suggest that ‘using photographs to detect deception’ is a subject that could prove important to explore to benefit forensic and counter-terrorist practice.