Using the Results from Rigorous Multisite Evaluations to Inform Local Policy Decisions

Evidence‐based policy at the local level requires predicting the impact of an intervention to inform whether it should be adopted. Increasingly, local policymakers have access to published research evaluating the effectiveness of policy interventions from national research clearinghouses that review and disseminate evidence from program evaluations. Through these evaluations, local policymakers have a wealth of evidence describing what works, but not necessarily where. Multisite evaluations may produce unbiased estimates of the average impact of an intervention in the study sample and still produce inaccurate predictions of the impact for localities outside the sample for two reasons: (1) the impact of the intervention may vary across localities, and (2) the evaluation estimate is subject to sampling error. Unfortunately, there is relatively little evidence on how much the impacts of policy interventions vary from one locality to another and almost no evidence on the implications of this variation for the accuracy with which the local impact of adopting an intervention can be predicted using findings from an evaluation in other localities. In this paper, we present a set of methods for quantifying the accuracy of the local predictions that can be obtained using the results of multisite randomized trials and for assessing the likelihood that prediction errors will lead to errors in local policy decisions. We demonstrate these methods using three evaluations of educational interventions, providing the first empirical evidence of the ability to use multisite evaluations to predict impacts in individual localities—i.e., the ability of “evidence‐based policy” to improve local policy.     

Population genetics of the STR loci HUMCSF1PO, HUMF13A01, HUMFES/FPS and D12S391 in Asturias (northern Spain)

In order to use genetic loci in forensic identity testing, some population data are needed. This paper presents a report of allele frequency data for the loci HUMCSF1PO, HUMF13A01, HUMFES/FPS and D12S391 in a population sample from Asturias (northern Spain).No deviation from the Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium was detected in any of the four markers investigated and there was no evidence of association between the alleles of these loci. Statistical analysis was also carried out to obtain some parameters of medico-legal interest and comparative studies were carried out with other populations studied to date for these loci. The Asturian sample does not differ substantially from other Caucasian and Spanish populations.     

Cardiopulmonary resuscitation-related injuries and homicidal blunt abdominal trauma in children

Defendants accused of inflicting fatal abdominal injuries to children occasionally raise the defense that the injuries were caused by cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). The purpose of this study is to answer the question: Does closed chest CPR result in fatal blunt abdominal injuries that can be mistaken for homicidal assault? To that end, a retrospective study was conducted of all homicidal blunt abdominal injuries in children 10 years and younger from the Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach Medical Examiner's Offices from 1981 through 1997. These were compared to cases of children who died of natural causes during the same time period in Broward County who had CPR (control group 1) and to children who died of nonvehicular accidental blunt abdominal trauma (control group 2). Children with life-threatening head injuries were excluded. Medical examiner records, autopsy reports, documenting photographs, and clinical records were reviewed. The data analyzed included subject demographics, whether CPR was performed and by whom, and autopsy findings. Thirty-three child homicides with fatal abdominal injuries were reviewed. Twenty-four (73%) of the homicides received CPR. There was no difference in the nature and severity of injuries between the 24 children who received CPR and the 9 who did not. Three hundred and twenty-four cases of pediatric natural deaths were reviewed, all of which had CPR. No traumatic abdominal injuries were found in any of the children who died of natural causes. Only four children who died of natural causes had evidence of extraabdominal trauma related to CPR. No cases of nonvehicular accidental blunt abdominal trauma were identified during the 17-year period, although there were nonvehicular accidental fatalities due to extraabdominal injuries. The likelihood of CPR-related primary abdominal trauma in child homicides is very low.     

Statistical sampling in a legislative framework for peer review of medicare services

This article discusses problems addressed in developing an efficient way of identifying levels of inappropriate professional practice in delivery of Medicare services, using statistical sampling within a legislative peer-review scheme. An efficient alternative to the current sampling methodology is proposed.     

Finding out rapidly: A soft systems approach to training needs analysis in Thailand

Thailand is experiencing the unfamiliar phenomenon of aid and multilateral agencies such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank lending money for internal development programmes. In the economic boom years, aid was neither sought nor required since structural development was funded from the growth which South-East Asian countries had begun to take for granted. Today, falling growth and rising unemployment linked to a depreciating currency and weak export markets have meant that Thailand has had to look elsewhere for development capital and to become proficient in managing educational projects. This article describes a rapid training needs analysis of the Thai educational sector commissioned by the British Council, the purpose of which was to discover the capacity of the education sector to undertake and deliver externally funded projects. Using the Kolb learning cycle as a paradigm of good practice, and an adapted version of the soft systems approach to planning, the paper describes a learning process for developing an action plan to produce a training package for enhancing project management skills. Finally, the paper reflects on the experience of the project and sets out some learning objectives for future exercises of this type.     

The Limits of Rational Choice: New Institutionalism in the Test Bed of Central Banking Politics in Australia

This paper tests the explanatory capacities of different versions of new institutionalism by examining the Australian case of a general transition in central banking practice and monetary politics: namely, the increased emphasis on low inflation and central bank independence. Standard versions of rational choice institutionalism largely dominate the literature on the politics of central banking, but this approach (here termed RC1) fails to account for Australian empirics. RC1 has a tendency to establish actor preferences exogenously to the analysis; actors' motives are also assumed a priori ; actor's preferences are depicted in relatively static, ahistorical terms. And there is the tendency, even a methodological requirement, to assume relatively simple motives and preference sets among actors, in part because of the game theoretic nature of RC1 reasoning. It is possible to build a more accurate rational choice model by re-specifying and essentially updating the context, incentives and choice sets that have driven rational choice in this case. Enter RC2. However, this move subtly introduces methodological shifts and new theoretical challenges. By contrast, historical institutionalism uses an inductive methodology. Compared with deduction, it is arguably better able to deal with complexity and nuance. It also utilises a dynamic, historical approach, and specifies (dynamically) endogenous preference formation by interpretive actors. Historical institutionalism is also able to more easily incorporate a wider set of key explanatory variables and incorporate wider social aggregates. Hence, it is argued that historical institutionalism is the preferred explanatory theory and methodology in this case.     

B. reviews and notes: bibliographies and works of reference

WORLD SURVEY OF ISLAMIC MANUSCRIPTS. General editor: GEOFFREY ROPER. Volumes One and Two. London, Al‐Furqan Islamic Heritage Foundation, 1992–1993. 2 vols. Distributed by E.J. Brill, Leiden. Hfl. 250.‐ each vol.

MIDDLE EAST BIBLIOGRAPHY. By SANFORD R. SILVERBURG. (Scarecrow area bibliographies, no. 1.) Metuchen & London, Scarecrow Press, 1992. xxxi, 564 pp. US$69.50.

REPERTORIO BIBLIOGRÁFICO DE DERECHO ISLÁMICO (R.B.D.I.), Primera parte. By MARIA JESÚS CARNICERO, MARIBEL FIERRO, SUSANA PENA, DELFINA SERRANO, AMALIA ZOMENO‐ Madrid: Instituto de Coop‐eración con el Mundo Arabe, 1993. (Cuadernos de la Biblioteca Islámico ‘Félix María Pareja’, 55.) ix, 98pp.

THE JEWS IN IZMIR IN THE 19TH CENTURY: OTTOMAN DOCUMENTS FROM THE SHAR'I COURT. (YEHUDEY IZMIR BA‐ME'A HA‐TE?A’ ‘ESRE: TE'UDOT TURKIYYOT MIBBET HA‐DIN HA‐?AR'I). Edited by HAIM GER‐BER and JACOB BARNAI. Jerusalem, Misgav Yerushalayim, Institute for Research on the Sephardi and Oriental Jewish Heritage. 1984. vi, 114 pp.

WOMEN IN THE MUSLIM WORLD: A BIBLIOGRAPHY OF BOOKS AND ARTICLES PRIMARILY IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE. By HERBERT L. BOD‐MAN. Providence, Association for Middle East Women's Studies, 1991. v, 162pp. US$10.‐

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THE WATERS OF THE NILE: AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY. By ROBERT O.COLLINS. London, Hans Zell, 1991. 315pp. £48.‐

DICTIONARY OF MANAGEMENT TERMS: ENGLISH‐FRENCH‐ARABIC. Compiled by JAMES COVENEY & SHEILA J. MOORE; Arabic terms edited by WAGDI RIZK GHALI & HANI G. TABRI. Beirut, Librairie du Liban, 1990. x, 109pp.

WHO'S WHO IN LEBANON 1993–1994. Twelfth edition (thoroughly revised and completed). Beirut, Publitec Publications; Munich, K.G.Saur, 1993. 482pp. £95.‐     

D. Reviews and notes: bibliographies and works of reference

RANNYAYA PERSIDSKAYA LEKSIKOGRAFIYA, XI‐XV vv. [Early Persian lexicography, 11th‐15th centuries]. By S.I. BAEVSKII. Moscow, Nauka, 1989. 166pp.

PERIODICALS IN TURKISH AND TURKIC LANGUAGES: A UNION LIST OF HOLDINGS IN U.K. LIBRARIES. Edited by MUHAMMAD ISA WALEY. Oxford, Middle East Libraries Committee (U.K.), 1993. 95pp. £20.‐

DIRECTORY OF TURKISH STUDIES 1993. Edited by MALCOLM WAGSTAFF and CHRISTINE WOODHEAD. [Southampton,] Turkish Area Study Group, 1993. 19pp. £2.00

LEBANON. Compiled by C.H. BLEANEY. (World Bibliographical Series, 2.) Oxford, Clio Press, 1991. xxxi, 230pp. Map. £39.00.

THE ILLUSTRATED ATLAS OF JERUSALEM. By DAN BAHAT, with C.T. RUBINSTEIN. Jerusalem & New York, Carta Israel Map and Publishing Company; English‐language Edition: Simon & Schuster, 1990. 152pp. £60.‐

DER NAHOSTKONFLIKT SEIT AUSBRUCH DER INTIFADA: EINE AUSWAHL BIBLIOGRAPHIE / THE ARAB‐ISRAELI CONFLICT SINCE THE OUTBREAK OF THE INTIFADAH: A SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY. By IN‐GEBORG OTTO and MARIANNE SCHMIDT‐DUMONT. (Biblio, 17.) Hamburg, Deutsches Ubersee‐Institut, 1990. ix, 98pp. DM 15.‐

THE INTIFADA: THE PALESTINIAN UPRISING IN THE WEST BANK AND GAZA STRIP: A BIBLIOGRAPHY OF BOOKS AND ARTICLES 1987–1992. By HALA KALEH and SIMONETTA CALDERINI. (Middle East Libraries Committee Research Guides, 6.) Oxford, Middle East Libraries Committee, 1993. 59 + 10 + 50pp. [Arabic title: al‐INTIFADA. AL‐INTIFADA AL‐FILASTINIYYA FI AL‐ARADI AL‐MUHTALLA: BIBLIYUGHRAFIYYA LI‐L‐KUTUB WA‐AL‐MAQALAT i987–1992. By HALA KAYLA wa‐SIMUNITA KALDIRINI.] £25.‐

ALGERIEN‐BIBLIOGRAPHIE: PUBLIKATIONEN AUS DER BUNDES‐REPUBLIK DEUTSCHLAND, ÖSTERREICH, UND DER SCHWEIZ, 1962–1989. Compiled by ERNSTPETER RUHE. Wiesbaden, Harrassowitz, 1990. 181pp. DM48.‐

OPEC AND THE WORLD ENERGY MARKET: A COMPREHENSIVE REFERENCE GUIDE. By JOHN EVANS, fully revised by GAVIN BROWN. 2nd edition. Harlow, Longman Current Affairs, 1991. xxvii+749 pp. £115.‐

WHO'S WHO IN THE ARAB WORLD 1993–1994. Eleventh edition (thoroughly revised and completed). Beirut, Publitec Publications, in co‐edition with K.G. Saur, München, 1993. 978pp. £225.00.

RELIGION IN POLITICS: A WORLD GUIDE. Edited by STUART NEWS. (Longman International Reference.) Harlow, Longman, 1989. 332pp.     

Not in isolation: the necessity of systemic heuristic devices in all development practice

This brief essay is a response to the article by Cooke (Cooke, 1997) in which he sets out the case for a clinical model of development practice. Developing the theme that any methodology taken in isolation will become self-fulfilling in its activity and taking up Cooke's ‘challenges for Development Studies’ whilst building off the criticism set out by Blunt (Blunt, 1997) and upon an earlier work, I set out the imperative for inclusive and systemic tools to aid our understanding of development contexts. Paradigms of scientific thought (the prisons of Blunt) and tyrannies of methodology are unwholesome and ultimately self-destructive devices. It is argued that only by adopting a holistic systems approach, including the wealth of potential tools for problems solving and developing our creative thinking in partnership, can development studies achieve real understanding of what must otherwise always be seen as remaining an unknowable and mysterious context. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.