Progress Toward the Determination of Correct Classification Rates in Fire Debris Analysis,,

Principal components analysis (PCA), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), and quadratic discriminant analysis (QDA) were used to develop a multistep classification procedure for determining the presence of ignitable liquid residue in fire debris and assigning any ignitable liquid residue present into the classes defined under the American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) E 1618‐10 standard method. A multistep classification procedure was tested by cross‐validation based on model data sets comprised of the time‐averaged mass spectra (also referred to as total ion spectra) of commercial ignitable liquids and pyrolysis products from common building materials and household furnishings (referred to simply as substrates). Fire debris samples from laboratory‐scale and field test burns were also used to test the model. The optimal model's true‐positive rate was 81.3% for cross‐validation samples and 70.9% for fire debris samples. The false‐positive rate was 9.9% for cross‐validation samples and 8.9% for fire debris samples.     

ATTITUDES TO COMMUNITY RELATIONS IN NORTHERN IRELAND: SIGNS OF OPTIMISM IN THE POST CEASE-FIRE PERIOD?

This article uses attitudinal data to explore Catholic and Protestant perspectives on community relations and equality since the paramilitary cease fires in 1994. Although attitudes tend to fluctuate with the ‘headline grabbing’ events of the day, the article argues that there are signs that some fundamental changes have taken place in the post cease fire period. Of particular importance in this regard is the positive response recorded by the Catholic community towards government measures to tackle disadvantage and inequality. Equally significant is the protestant response to many of these measures which is often one of ambivalence rather than derision. In so far as the data appear to challenge the ‘zero-sum’ game that traditionally underpins relations between the two communities in Northern Ireland, they provide some grounds for optimism. Yet such optimism is tempered somewhat by the seeds of discontent which are manifest within the protestant community, particularly around issues of equality in employment and cultural traditions. Despite the more positive assessment of community relations and equality in 2002, it is argued that further monitoring will be required to determine the long-term effects of policy reform on relationships between the two communities.     

The Puzzle of Personalist Performance: Iraqi Battlefield Effectiveness in the Iran-Iraq War

Saddam's Iraq has become a cliché in the study of military effectiveness—the quintessentially coup-proofed, personalist dictatorship, unable to generate fighting power commensurate with its resources. But evidence from the later years of the Iran-Iraq War actually suggests that the Iraqi military could be quite effective on the battlefield. What explains this puzzling instance of effectiveness, which existing theories predict should not have occurred? Recently declassified documents and new histories of the war show that the Iraqi improvements stemmed from changes in Saddam's perceptions of the threat environment, which resulted in significant shifts in his policies with respect to promotions, training, command arrangements, and information management in the military. Threat perceptions and related changes in these practices also help explain Iraq's return to ineffectiveness after the war, as evident in 1991 and 2003. These findings, conceived as a theory development exercise, suggest that arguments linking regime type and coup-ridden civil-military relations to military performance need to take into account the threat perceptions that drive autocratic leaders’ policies toward their militaries. After discussing how to define and measure battlefield effectiveness, the article reviews Saddam's changes and their effects; addresses alternative explanations for the improvement in Iraqi effectiveness; and explains how further research based on this initial exercise could generate a better understanding of the observed variation in states’ battlefield effectiveness, including variation within and across autocratic regimes.     

Autism behind bars: a review of the research literature and discussion of key issues

Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) may experience difficulties coping at all levels of involvement in the criminal justice system. Questions remain, however, regarding the presence and type of difficulties faced by individuals with ASD in the context of incarceration within prison settings. Despite the potential impact for community safety and concerns regarding justice, these issues have received very little academic attention. The research that does exist is generally limited by poor methodology and small sample sizes. The current paper provides a brief review and discussion of the limited extant literature regarding the experiences of prisoners with ASD with the view to summarising areas of difficulties potentially faced by such individuals. It is hoped that this brief review may highlight the need for academic attention in order to inform practice and policy regarding the criminal justice response to this potentially vulnerable population.     

Packed primaries and empty caucuses: voter turnout in presidential nominations

In presidential nomination contests, the number of voters participating in selecting the presidential candidates varies considerably across states. In the same election year, turnout in presidential nomination contests ranges from less than 1 % of party supporters participating in some caucuses to record breaking turnout levels upwards of 50 % in primaries in other states. This variation is attributable, in part, to the electoral rules, which vary across states, years, and parties. In this paper, I provide a comprehensive examination of the extent to which party and state rules affect voter turnout in nomination contests from 1980 to 2012. Using the normal partisan support score as the voter turnout denominator, I find that primaries, open contests, and proportional representation rules result in higher levels of turnout. I also show that within the window of competitiveness, turnout is higher in states that hold contests later in the nomination season. Overall, my analysis provides insight into the institutional structures that influence the number of people who participate in the presidential nomination process and enhances understanding about the factors that affect voter turnout.     

Convenience stores and routine activities in a summer tourist destination

In this paper we examine the effects of alcohol outlets, with particular attention to convenience stores, located in an East Coast Tourist City. Tourist City offered an opportunity to observe the interplay between convenience stores and robberies and assaults in the presence of large volumes of summer tourists. Guided by Routine Activities Theory, we focused on the convergence of potential victims, guardianship and offenders in the vicinity of convenience stores. The first part of our paper concerns the effects of convenience stores on assaults and robberies in block groups. Using grocery stores as a comparison to convenience stores, we found that the number of convenience stores was correlated with significantly higher levels of both robberies and assaults. The second part of our investigation employed small circular buffer areas focusing on the immediate area around the convenience stores. This analysis revealed that these small areas were associated with significantly higher assaults in the summer and offseason but robberies only during the offseason. In addition, we found that variation in the number of other alcohol outlets near the convenience stores increases the number of assaults within the buffer areas.     

Who moves? Elite and mass-level depolarization in Britain, 1987–2001

Over the past two decades the British Labour and Conservative parties have depolarized on economic and social welfare policy, at both the elite and mass levels. We ask the question: Does mass-level depolarization in Britain extend throughout the electorate, or is it confined primarily to the stratum of affluent, educated, and politically engaged citizens? We report longitudinal analyses of British Election Study respondents' policy beliefs and partisan loyalties over the period 1987–2001, and find that depolarization extends across all subgroups in the electorate, as do perceptions of elite depolarization. These effects are (moderately) more pronounced among the electoral subgroups of highly educated, affluent, and politically informed citizens. The findings have important implications for elite representation of voters' policy preferences, and for differences in representation patterns between Britain and the United States.     

Observing Environmental Destruction Stimulates Neural Activation in Networks Associated with Empathic Responses

The negative impacts of environmental disruption disproportionately affect marginalized and underprivileged communities; thus, the degree to which society is complicit in allowing unchecked environmental destruction to occur has important social justice applications. Although decades of research have sought to understand factors which determine acceptance of environmental destruction, most of this research has been based on self-report surveys. In the present work, we used neuroimaging techniques to examine the neural correlates of environmental concern. To do this, we compared responses to observing suffering dogs with responses to observing suffering ecosystems. Our results extend previous findings which had shown largely overlapping neural response patterns to observing animal and human suffering. Critically, we found activation in regions previously identified as active in empathy processes in response to viewing harm to ecosystems (i.e., without any animals present in the images). We also found relative differences in response patterns between the two types of stimuli: witnessing harm to environments (vs. dog suffering) led to reduced activation in some regions, but similar activation in others. We discuss these findings in terms of their potential implications for behavioral interventions and possibilities for continued neuroimaging research examining neural responses to environmental ecosystems and other nonhuman entities.     

Specificity of sibship determination using the ABI Identifiler multiplex system

Fifty known siblings and fifty unrelated pairs were genotyped using the ABI Identifiler STR system and sibship indices computed for each pair. Combined sibship indices (CSIs) for the known siblings ranged from less than 10 to greater than 1 billion. CSIs for the unrelated pairs ranged from 4.5 x 10(-8) to 0.12. In the known sibling group the percentage of loci where both alleles matched was approximately 40%, while the percentage of loci where neither matched was approximately 10%. In the non-sibling group, the percentage of loci where both alleles matched was approximately 6%, while the percentage of loci where neither matched was approximately 45%. Interestingly, the percentage of loci where a single allele matched was the same in both the known siblings and unrelated pairs, approximately 50%.