Lobbying and uncertainty: Lobbying's varying response to different political events

Does political uncertainty affect whether lobbyists contact government officials? We suggest that the answer depends on the type of uncertainty introduced. Distinguishing between policy objective uncertainty—where organized interests and lobbyists are uncertain about the policy intentions of decision makers—and issue information uncertainty—where policymakers are uncertain about the technical details of issues—we hypothesize that whereas an increase in policy objective uncertainty leads to a decrease in lobbying, a rise in issue information uncertainty leads to more lobbying. We test the hypotheses with longitudinal data from the Canadian Lobbyists Registry measuring change in the number of times lobbyists have contacted government ministries each month from 2008 to 2018. The results suggest that lobbying intensity does respond differently to these types of uncertainty. Whereas events introducing issue information uncertainty have a statistically significant positive relationship with lobbying, events introducing policy objective uncertainty do not.     

Regionalism and integration

Abstract

This book is a straightforward, well researched, meticulous study of regionalism and its associated problems during the early post-liberation period of Chinese political development. It is loaded with data and hypotheses that the expert will doubtless find stimulating, but which the layperson could easily afford to pass up.     

Does it Matter Who Works at the Center? A Comparative Policy Analysis of Executive Styles

This article develops the concept of executive style to explore how variations in the relationships between politicians, career civil servants, and political appointees affect the types of policy outputs. A comparative analysis of home care policies in New Brunswick and Nova Scotia finds that the former’s civil service executive style – where professional civil servants work in close partnership with politicians in all phases of the policy process – led to the development of an innovative home care program with a long-term vision, whereas the latter’s politicized executive style – where politicians marginalize the role of civil servants in favor of political appointees – led to frequent changes in policy largely driven by short-term considerations.     

The Contribution of Body Mass and Volume of Distribution to the Estimated Uncertainty Associated with the Widmark Equation

The Widmark equation is used forensically for the determination of the amount of ethanol (alcohol) that may have been consumed and also to determine the blood alcohol concentration (BAC) of an individual at a specific time. It is important to be able to estimate the uncertainty associated with Widmark equations. To date, there has been no detailed determination of contribution to the final uncertainty of Widmark calculations of the volume of distribution of ethanol (V_d), using anthropometric equations, or the contribution of an individual’s body mass. Using published data, published literature, and freedom of information data, we determined that the variability (%CV) associated with V_d was ~10% (Watson et al. and Forrest anthropometric equations) and that the %CV associated with estimated body mass was ~15% compared to ~3% when body mass was directly measured. These data allow an estimation of the overall uncertainty of Widmark calculations using general error propagation. The estimated total uncertainty for BAC calculations increased from ~11% (volume consumed) and ~22% (BAC) to ~19% (volume consumed) and ~37% (BAC) when using measured body mass compared to estimated body mass. These results demonstrate that forensic practitioners should be mindful of the increase in estimated uncertainty in calculated Widmark equation results when estimated body mass is used rather than measured body mass. These data further improve the knowledge around the uncertainty of results calculated with the Widmark equation.     

Culturally Distinctive and Academic Socialization: Direct and Interactive Relationships with African American Adolescents’ Academic Adjustment

Theories of ethnic minority development have largely suggested that African American parents engage in a combination of practices that include culturally distinctive socialization as well as behaviors that are characteristic of more universal forms of academic socialization. However, few studies have examined how these socialization dimensions interact to influence the academic adjustment of African American adolescents. The current study explored the independent and interactive roles of parental academic and culturally distinctive socialization on the academic adjustment of African American adolescents. The sample was comprised 144 African American adolescents (M = 12.4; SD = 1.14; 56% female). Findings provided partial support that cultural and academic socialization were independently associated with indicators of academic adjustment. However, the interaction between these dimensions also was associated with youths’ adjustment in the academic domain.     

The (Un)predictability of Primaries with Many Candidates: Simulation Evidence

It is common to describe the dynamic processes that generateoutcomes in U.S. primaries as ``unstable'' or ``unpredictable''. In fact, the way we choose candidates may amount to alottery. This paper uses a simulation approach, assuming10,000 voters who vote according to a naive, deterministicproximity rule, but who choose party affiliationprobabilistically. The voters of each party then must choose between twosets of ten randomly chosen candidates, in ``closed'' primaries.Finally, the winners of the two nominations compete in thegeneral election, in which independent voters also participate.The key result of the simulations reported here isthe complete unpredictability of the outcomes of a sequence ofprimaries: the winner of the primary, or the party's nominee,varied as much as two standard deviations from the medianpartisan voter. The reason is that the median, or any othermeasure of the center of the distribution of voters, isof little value in predicting the outcome of multicandidateelections. These results suggest that who runs may havemore to do with who wins than any other consideration. If more than two parties or candidates are expected, then thevote-maximizing position is not close to your opponents, butwell away from them. (Tullock, 1967: 55).     

Psychiatric Patients’ Comprehension of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Miranda</Emphasis> Rights

Seventy-five psychiatric inpatients were evaluated with respect to their Miranda-related abilities using Grisso’s (1998, Instruments for assessing understanding and appreciation of Miranda rights. Sarasota, FL: Professional Resource Press) instruments and Goldstein’s (2002, Revised instruments for assessing understanding and appreciation of Miranda rights) revision to determine: whether different versions of Miranda warnings translate into differences in understanding; the influence of psychiatric symptoms, diagnostic categories, and IQ upon Miranda comprehension; and the relative performance of persons with psychiatric impairment on Miranda-relevant abilities. Results indicated that although the Miranda language used in Goldstein’s revision generally showed lower grade reading levels and higher reading ease scores than Grisso’s original instruments, this did not translate into improved understanding. In addition, psychiatric symptoms were negatively correlated with Miranda comprehension, even after controlling for IQ. Finally, results revealed that psychiatric patients’ understanding and appreciation was substantially impaired compared to Grisso’s adult validation samples, and was roughly comparable to Grisso’s juvenile validation sample. Implications of these results for policy reform are discussed.