Testing the power of arguments in referendums: A Bradley–Terry approach

How can we determine which arguments in a referendum are most persuasive? We show that the Bradley–Terry model has several features that make it well-suited to this task, and thus preferable to other, more conventional approaches. Using a survey experiment conducted during an electoral reform referendum in Ontario, Canada in October 2007, we demonstrate how unstructured and structured Bradley–Terry models can be straightforwardly fitted and interpreted. In doing so, we gain insight into the factors which determine support for electoral reform. We identify a status quo bias and find that power varies with mention of fairness, local control over candidate selection, and the role of political parties. We conclude by discussing the limits, extensions and further applications of such models in electoral studies and political science more broadly.     

Personality and Political Participation: The Mediation Hypothesis

Recent analyses have demonstrated that personality affects political behavior. According to the mediation hypothesis, the effect of personality on political participation is mediated by classical predictors, such as political interest, internal efficacy, political discussion, or the sense that voting is a civic duty. This paper outlines various paths that link personality traits to two participatory activities: voter turnout in European Parliament elections and participation in protest actions. The hypotheses are tested with data from a large, nationally representative, face-to-face survey of the Spanish population conducted before and after the 2009 European Parliament elections using log-linear path models that are well suited to study indirect relationships. The results clearly confirm that the effects of personality traits on voter turnout and protest participation are sizeable but indirect. They are mediated by attitudinal predictors.     

Automated Texture Recognition of Quartz Sand Grains for Forensic Applications*

Quartz sand surface texture analysis has been automated for the first time for forensic application. The derived Basic Image Features (BIFs) provide computer-generated texture recognition from preexisting data sets. The technique was applied to two distinct classification problems; first, the ability of the system to discriminate between (quartz) sand grains with upturned plate features (indicative of eolian, global sand sea environments) and grains that do not exhibit these features. A success rate of grain classification of 98.8% was achieved. Second, to test the ability of the computer recognition system to identify specific energy levels of formation of the upturned plate surface texture features. Such recognition ability has to date been beyond manual geological interpretation. The discrimination performance was enhanced to an exact classification success rate of 81%. The enhanced potential for routine forensic investigation of the provenance of common quartz sand is indicated.     

Not by accident: An analytical approach to traffic crash harm reduction

Purpose

This study examines whether a problem-oriented approach used by police in Cincinnati, Ohio called the Crash Analysis Reduction Strategy (CARS) corresponded with a change in the number of traffic crashes that resulted in injuries after implementation onset. Under the CARS model, police developed tactics that focused on targeting high-risk driving behaviors, impaired drivers, and crash hotspot locations within the city.

Methods

Using a two-phase strategy we first assess local impact by examining injury-related traffic crash patterns at targeted locations. Second, we examine whether traffic crashes that resulted in injuries in Cincinnati significantly diverged relative to similar outcomes across a number of comparison sites.

Results

Difference-in-difference negative binomial regression analyses indicates that traffic crashes were significantly lower in Cincinnati - down roughly 5.7% to 10.3% in the post-intervention period - when contrasted with comparison sites.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that comprehensive problem solving approaches can significantly reduce the risk of life changing events such as automobile crashes that result in injuries beyond traditional policing efforts that explicitly focus on crime and violence.     

Problematic alcohol consumption by police officers and other protective service employees: A comparative analysis

Purpose

To examine differences between members of protective service occupations (PSOs) and other occupational groups on indicators of alcohol use/abuse and mental health.

Methods

A subset of 25,622 observations from the 2009 National Survey of Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) are used to evaluate whether PSO members exhibit a higher likelihood of problematic drinking behaviors and if so, whether these behaviors are mediated by mental health problems.

Results

Logistic regression models indicated that PSO members do not consume alcohol more frequently nor do they exhibit higher likelihood of alcohol abuse/dependency when compared to members of other occupational groups. However, PSO members report higher occurrence of binge drinking. The relationship between PSOs and binge drinking behaviors is mediated by gender, not mental health problems.

Conclusion

The results provide direction for the development of evidence-based alcohol related intervention programs that address the specific needs of police officers and other public servants.     

Development of an immunoassay for the differentiation of menstrual blood from peripheral blood

This study examined all unintentional firearm fatalities while hunting that occurred in Sweden between 1983 through 2008. The circumstances as well as the impact of the hunter's exam on fatality frequency were analysed. During these 26 years, there were 48 such fatalities, representing 53% of all (n=90) unintentional firearm deaths during the same period. The average annual number of fatalities decreased over the last few decades. Very restrictive firearm legislation in Sweden combined with the introduction of a mandatory hunter's exam since 1985 accounted, at least partly, for this finding. Moose hunting accounted for 46% of the fatalities and small game hunting for the remaining cases. The mean age of the victims was 50 years and 96% of them were males; all shooters were males. During moose hunting, most of the victims were mistaken for game, whereas in small game hunting most of the fatalities were related to falls and improper handling of the weapon. Human error was thus the main cause of these fatalities.     

A concept study on identification and attribution profiling of chemical threat agents using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry applied to Amanita toxins in food

Accidental or deliberate poisoning of food is of great national and international concern. Detecting and identifying potentially toxic agents in food is challenging due to their large chemical diversity and the complexity range of food matrices. A methodology is presented whereby toxic agents are identified and further characterized using a two-step approach. First, generic screening is performed by LC/MS/MS to detect toxins based on a list of selected potential chemical threat agents (CTAs). After identifying the CTAs, a second LC/MS analysis is performed applying accurate mass determination and the generation of an attribution profile. To demonstrate the potential of the methodology, toxins from the mushrooms Amanita phalloides and Amanita virosa were analyzed. These mushrooms are known to produce cyclic peptide toxins, which can be grouped into amatoxins, phallotoxins and virotoxins, where α-amanitin and β-amanitin are regarded as the most potent. To represent a typical complex food sample, mushroom stews containing either A. phalloides or A. virosa were prepared. By combining the screening method with accurate mass analysis, the attribution profile for the identified toxins and related components in each stew was established and used to identify the mushroom species in question. In addition, the analytical data was consistent with the fact that the A. virosa specimens used in this study were of European origin. This adds an important piece of information that enables geographic attribution and strengthens the attribution profile.     

Unexpected natural death secondary to intra-abdominal bleeding: report of one idiopathic spontaneous intraperitoneal hemorrhage case

A 39-year-old woman was found dead at home. She was single, foreign national, chronic alcoholic, and had given shelter to a compatriot for three days. This man found the deceased in her bed, after a night of heavy drinking. The emergency medical team observed numerous recent blue ecchymoses of the upper limbs. Because of the unclear circumstances, a medicolegal autopsy was ordered by the public prosecutor. Massive hemoperitoneum was diagnosed with no visible internal traumatic injury. Autopsy revealed hepatic and pancreatic abnormalities secondary to chronic alcoholism, which were confirmed by pathological study. The source of the hemoperitoneum was not identified despite careful visceral and vascular examination. The authors concluded that death was secondary to idiopathic spontaneous hemoperitoneum or abdominal apoplexy. The forensic literature on unexpected death due to massive nontraumatic intra-abdominal hemorrhage in association with liver cirrhosis is sparse, with only five cases reported, including the present case.     

Postnatal ontogenesis of the tibia. Implications for age and sex estimation

The growth of five variables of the tibia (diaphyseal length, diaphyseal length plus distal epiphysis, condylo-malleolar length, sagittal diameter of the proximal epiphysis, maximum breadth of the distal epiphysis) were analysed using polynomial regression in order to evaluate their significance and capacity for age and sex determination during and after growth. Data were collected from 181 (90♂ and 91♀) individuals ranging from birth to 25 years of age and belonging to three documented collections from Western Europe. Results indicate that all five variables exhibit linear behaviour during growth, which can be expressed by a first-degree polynomial function. Sexual significant differences were observed from age 15 onward in the two epiphysis measurements and condylo-malleolar length, suggesting that these three variables could be useful for sex determination in individuals older than 15 years. Strong correlation coefficients were identified between the five tibial variables and age. These results indicate that any of the studied tibial measurements is likely to serve as a useful source for estimating sub-adult age in both archaeological and forensic samples.