Can Social Media Predict Election Results? Evidence From New Zealand

The importance of social media for election campaigning has received a lot of attention recently. Using data from the 2011 New Zealand general election and the size of candidates’ social media networks on Facebook and Twitter, we investigate whether social media is associated with election votes and probability of election success. Overall, our results suggest that there is a statistically significant relationship between the size of online social networks and election voting and election results. However, the size of the effect is small and it appears that social media presence is therefore only predictive in closely contested elections.     

Norm Diffusion and Reputation: The Rise of the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative

Transparency in the extractives sector is widely seen as an important tool for improving accountability and deterring corruption. Yet for those very reasons, it is a puzzle that so many governments in corruption‐prone countries have voluntarily signed up to greater scrutiny in this area by joining the Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI). We argue that EITI serves as a reputational intermediary, whereby reformers can signal good intentions and international actors can reward achievement. International and domestic actors thus utilize EITI to diffuse the norm of resource transparency and to advance reformist aims in a highly problematic policy area.     

Vicarious Trauma in Child Welfare Workers: A Study of Organizational Responses

Child welfare is provided within an organizational context that both supports and thwarts the efforts of workers and administrators to meet the myriad of goals established by federal, state, and local regulation and professional bodies. As the field moves toward trauma-informed services for children and families (Ko et al., 2008 Ko, S. J., Ford, J. D., Kassam-Adams, N., Berkowitz, S. J., Wilson, C., Wong, M., Brymer, M. J., &; Layne, C. M. (2008). Creating trauma-informed systems: Child welfare, education, first responders, healthcare, juvenile justice. Professional Psychology: Research and Practice, 39(4), 396–404.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]), the effect of trauma on workers has received less agency attention (Middleton &; Potter, 2015 Middleton, J. S., &; Potter, C. C. (2015). Relationship between vicarious traumatization and turnover among child welfare professionals. Journal of Public Child Welfare, 9(2), 195–216.[Taylor &; Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). This exploratory, qualitative study examines the level of knowledge administrators have regarding vicarious trauma and probes the organizational responses of public child welfare agencies to the vicarious trauma experienced by workers.     

Mass murders in Germany – classification of surviving offenders based on the examination of court files

Personality, psychopathology, and motives of 44 surviving offenders committing mass murder in Germany over 25 years (1984–2009) were analyzed using court files and psychiatric expertises. Initially, 123 mass murders in Germany were detected in the time period 1980–2010 (inclusive deceased offenders). Using a data entry form based on ViCLAS (Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System), we categorized the 44 surviving mass murderers into three prototypes using the ‘TwoStep Cluster’-method (separation of the offenders in different groups depending on their similarity of specific items): 1. Narcissistic or aggressive men suffering from addiction or affective disorder, committing mass murder out of rage/hate when being intoxicated by alcohol, 2. Psychotic offenders with schizophrenia and comorbid substance abuse. 3. Aggressive, narcissistic or anxious adolescents, half of them suffering from affective disorder or ADHD, committing mass murder out of rage/hate. Not included are such events where the offenders died and therefore no court files or psychiatric expertises were available. Classification and subtyping of the offenders’ personalities and psychopathological conditions might help to improve the chances for an early detection of persons at risk.     

Policy entrepreneurship in the development of public sector strategy: the case of London health reform

The development of health policy is recognized as complex; however, there has been little development of the role of agency in this process. Kingdon developed the concept of policy entrepreneur (PE) within his ‘windows’ model. He argued inter-related ‘policy streams' must coincide for important issues to become addressed. The conjoining of these streams may be aided by a policy entrepreneur. We contribute by clarifying the role of the policy entrepreneur and highlighting the translational processes of key actors in creating and aligning policy windows. We analyse the work in London of Professor Sir Ara Darzi as a policy entrepreneur. An important aspect of Darzi's approach was to align a number of important institutional networks to conjoin related problems. Our findings highlight how a policy entrepreneur not only opens policy windows but also yokes together a network to make policy agendas happen. Our contribution reveals the role of clinical leadership in health reform.     

First-time DWI offenders are at risk of recidivating regardless of sanctions imposed

Objective

Research demonstrates that punitive approaches to DWI employed by the judiciary have failed to significantly reduce recidivism. However, little is known about the deterrent effects of administrative and diversion sanctions. We examine whether such sanctions deter first-time DWI offenders.

Methods

We grouped combinations of administrative, judicial, and diversion sanctions routinely employed in the state of Maryland for processing drivers arrested for DWI into one of eight mutually exclusive disposition sequences. We applied this classification to Maryland drivers who had been licensed in the state and had precisely one DWI on their record prior to January 1, 1999. We then used a proportional hazards model to estimate the probability of remaining free of a new DWI during a 6-year period (January 1, 1999 - December 31, 2004) as a function of the disposition of the index violation, and of selected factors that could affect that probability.

Results

Drivers with a prior DWI were at relatively high risk of recidivating regardless of how they were sanctioned. Those who received administrative and alternative sanctions had a risk of recidivating similar to that of drivers who were convicted.

Conclusion

All dispositions sequences, not just convictions, indicate that first-time DWI offenders are at high risk of recidivating.     

Total and Marginal Cost Analysis for a High School Based Bystander Intervention

Costs of providing the Green Dot bystander-based intervention, shown to be effective in the reduction of sexual violence among Kentucky high school students, were estimated based on data from a large cluster-randomized clinical trial. Rape Crisis Center Educators were trained to provide Green Dot curriculum to students. Implementing Green Dot in schools (N = 13) randomized to the intervention, over five years, cost $1.6 M and included start-up ($58 K) and ongoing implementation ($1.55 M). Costs for adding a school ($25,510) were calculated based on the final year, where no start-up costs were incurred. Knowing the $25,510 cost estimate for adding Green Dot may be particularly useful for high school administrators or school boards when they were making economic decisions based on strong evidence of program effectiveness to reduce violence.     

The effective design,implementation and enforcement of socio-economic equality duties: lessons from the pupil premium

Abstract

The UK has extremely high levels of socio-economic inequality, which are predicted to rise over the next five years. Traditionally, equality law was seen as inappropriate to address socio-economic inequality but in the last decade, a growing number of equality duties have been introduced to address this persistent form of inequality. There is, however, little research on the principles that underpin these duties. This article seeks to address this gap through the use of data from interviews conducted with primary school personnel implementing the pupil premium. The article explores understandings of socio-economic inequality by individuals in schools; policy conflicts; the wider context of action to address socio-economic inequality; different decision-making processes; and accountability mechanisms. On the basis of the findings of this study, broad principles are outlined to inform the design, implementation and enforcement of socio-economic equality duties in the future.