Mass murders in Germany – classification of surviving offenders based on the examination of court files

Personality, psychopathology, and motives of 44 surviving offenders committing mass murder in Germany over 25 years (1984–2009) were analyzed using court files and psychiatric expertises. Initially, 123 mass murders in Germany were detected in the time period 1980–2010 (inclusive deceased offenders). Using a data entry form based on ViCLAS (Violent Crime Linkage Analysis System), we categorized the 44 surviving mass murderers into three prototypes using the ‘TwoStep Cluster’-method (separation of the offenders in different groups depending on their similarity of specific items): 1. Narcissistic or aggressive men suffering from addiction or affective disorder, committing mass murder out of rage/hate when being intoxicated by alcohol, 2. Psychotic offenders with schizophrenia and comorbid substance abuse. 3. Aggressive, narcissistic or anxious adolescents, half of them suffering from affective disorder or ADHD, committing mass murder out of rage/hate. Not included are such events where the offenders died and therefore no court files or psychiatric expertises were available. Classification and subtyping of the offenders’ personalities and psychopathological conditions might help to improve the chances for an early detection of persons at risk.     

First-time DWI offenders are at risk of recidivating regardless of sanctions imposed

Objective

Research demonstrates that punitive approaches to DWI employed by the judiciary have failed to significantly reduce recidivism. However, little is known about the deterrent effects of administrative and diversion sanctions. We examine whether such sanctions deter first-time DWI offenders.

Methods

We grouped combinations of administrative, judicial, and diversion sanctions routinely employed in the state of Maryland for processing drivers arrested for DWI into one of eight mutually exclusive disposition sequences. We applied this classification to Maryland drivers who had been licensed in the state and had precisely one DWI on their record prior to January 1, 1999. We then used a proportional hazards model to estimate the probability of remaining free of a new DWI during a 6-year period (January 1, 1999 - December 31, 2004) as a function of the disposition of the index violation, and of selected factors that could affect that probability.

Results

Drivers with a prior DWI were at relatively high risk of recidivating regardless of how they were sanctioned. Those who received administrative and alternative sanctions had a risk of recidivating similar to that of drivers who were convicted.

Conclusion

All dispositions sequences, not just convictions, indicate that first-time DWI offenders are at high risk of recidivating.     

Can We Identify Bad Cops Based on History? Base Rates of Historical Markers in Law Enforcement Pre-employment Evaluations

While psychometric police selection processes have progressively evolved, the efficacy of simple background information has not been extensively evaluated. This study examined the utility of base rate information to predict job performance among law enforcement officers. Pre-employment historical markers from bad hires were compared to good hires from a large sample of 1536 officers. Of this sample, 205 officers were categorized as bad hires if they were arrested, had greater than five misconduct episodes, or were terminated for cause within 5 years following hire. Base rates of 40 pre-employment history variables were compared for good and bad hires. Analysis of markers showed that bad hires had a significantly higher frequency of markers across family factors, mental health variables, conduct problems, and criminal justice outcomes compared to good hires. Among the largest differences were history of multiple physical altercations, outpatient psychiatric treatment, and events related to previous law enforcement employment such as employer reprimands, suspensions, or fitness for duty evaluations. Many other intuitive markers occurred too infrequently to analyze or showed no significant difference between good hires and bad hires in law enforcement settings. Base rates in addition to psychological test data are necessary aspects of the police pre-employment evaluation.     

Total and Marginal Cost Analysis for a High School Based Bystander Intervention

Costs of providing the Green Dot bystander-based intervention, shown to be effective in the reduction of sexual violence among Kentucky high school students, were estimated based on data from a large cluster-randomized clinical trial. Rape Crisis Center Educators were trained to provide Green Dot curriculum to students. Implementing Green Dot in schools (N = 13) randomized to the intervention, over five years, cost $1.6 M and included start-up ($58 K) and ongoing implementation ($1.55 M). Costs for adding a school ($25,510) were calculated based on the final year, where no start-up costs were incurred. Knowing the $25,510 cost estimate for adding Green Dot may be particularly useful for high school administrators or school boards when they were making economic decisions based on strong evidence of program effectiveness to reduce violence.     

Are jurors' perceptions of eyewitness credibility affected by the cognitive interview?

Abstract

Ninety-one college subjects listened to Cognitive Interviews (CI) and Standard police interviews of 7-year old children who were attempting to describe an earlier incident of playing a game of Simon Says. The subjects evaluated the witness's credibility and also the interviewer's manipulativeness. The perceived credibility of the witness was not affected by the type of interview, i.e., the CI did not render the witness unduly credible. In addition, the CI interviewer was judged to be less manipulative than the Standard police interviewer. These results were discussed in light of some potential legal concerns about using the CI.     

Some notes on the validation of VRS-SO static scores

ABSTRACT

The present study was a psychometric examination of Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offender version (VRS-SO; Wong, S., Olver, M. E., Nicholaichuk, T. P., & Gordon, A. (2003 Wong, S., Olver, M. E., Nicholaichuk, T. P., & Gordon, A. (2003). The violence risk scale: Sexual offender version (VRS-SO). Saskatoon: Regional Psychiatric Centre and University of Saskatchewan. [Google Scholar]). The violence risk scale: Sexual offender version (VRS-SO). Saskatoon: Regional Psychiatric Centre and University of Saskatchewan) static item scores in a Canadian multisite sample of 668 treated adult male sexual offenders. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) of 13 nonredundant Static-99R and VRS-SO static items generated three factors labelled Youthful Aggression, Sexual Criminality, and General Criminality. The factor and total scores converged with Static-99R and VRS-SO dynamic factor scores. Scores on the VRS-SO static items, EFA-derived factors, and total score each significantly predicted 5- and 10-year sexual, violent, and general recidivism through ROC analyses. Cox regression survival analyses showed all three factors uniquely predicted sexual recidivism to varying degrees in the overall sample; however, only Youthful Aggression and General Criminality uniquely significantly predicted violent and general recidivism in the overall sample and among sexual offender subgroups. Implications for theory, clinical practice, and instrument refinement are discussed.     

A Cautionary Tale: Council Amalgamation in Tasmania and the Deloitte Access Economics Report

Contemporary Australian public policy has come to rely increasingly on technical reports produced by commercial consultants in contrast to the traditional approach, which employed disinterested public servants to generate the specialist information required to inform decision makers. This approach is fraught with problems, not least the fact that ‘hired guns’ have strong incentives to create the ‘answers’ sought by their employers. By way of a ‘cautionary tale’, this paper examines the empirical evidence adduced in favour of radical amalgamation of Tasmanian local authorities in Local Government Structural Reform in Tasmania, produced by Deloitte Access Economics (DAE) (2011), and commissioned by the Property Council of Tasmania. In particular, the paper provides a critical analysis of the econometric modelling undertaken in the DAE (2011) Report. We find that if the DAE model is re‐estimated – employing alternative functional forms – then the empirical evidence in support of Tasmania council merges evaporates.     

Using multiple choice questions to examine the content of the qualifying law degree accurately and reliably: the experience of the Qualified Lawyers Transfer Scheme

The Qualified Lawyers Transfer Scheme (QLTS) provides a route for lawyers from other jurisdictions and barristers from England and Wales to qualify as solicitors in England and Wales. One of the three tests in the QLTS, the Multiple Choice Test (MCT), uses multiple choice questions to examine the syllabus of the qualifying law degree together with some pervasive subjects from the Legal Practice Course. This paper examines the MCT in detail. Particular attention is paid to the format and structure of the questions. We describe the detailed editing which each question goes through before it is used, the statistical analysis and review which take place after an exam, and the rationale for these processes. An explanation is given of what reliability and accuracy mean and how they are measured statistically. There is also an explanation of the “Angoff method” by which pass marks are set. Finally, the paper reports on the first four sittings of the MCT and their statistical results including their reliability and accuracy. Use of the multiple choice test, though well established for examining applied knowledge in medicine and in law in other jurisdictions, is a radical departure for the assessment of law in England and Wales. The experience of QLTS has shown that a carefully constructed multiple choice test of a suitable length can assess the qualifying law degree content both reliably and accurately.