Time series robustness checks to test the effects of the 1996 Australian firearm law on cause-specific mortality

Objectives

Many studies utilize time series methods to identify causal effects without accounting for an underlying time trend. We show that accounting for trends changes the conclusions in the study of Chapman et al. (JAMA, 316(3), 291–299, 2016), who evaluated the impact of the Australian firearm law in 1996. We also introduce a new empirical method that tests whether their empirical strategy can actually identify a causal effect that is also useful for panel analyses.

Methods

We use national data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, assembled in annual counts of: total firearm deaths, firearm suicides, and firearm homicides. These data are used in an independent re-analysis of the impact of the 1996 Australian firearm law that accounts for underlying stochastic trends. We then estimate a series of artificially created interruptions using interrupted times series analysis in a time frame before 1996, to test for changes in the slope of mortality across several years prior to the actual regulatory changes. This tests whether the empirical model produces effects in years other than the year of the intervention, thereby testing if the results can simply be replicated at random using other interruption years.

Results

Controlling for stochastic trends produces less statistical evidence of the impact of the firearm law on firearm mortality than previously reported by Chapman et al. (JAMA, 316(3), 291–299, 2016). Introducing artificial interruptions in 1990 through 1995 produces statistically significant decreases in all firearm-related mortality measures well above the expected type 1 error. Overall, 19 out of the 36 artificial interruption models we tested were found to be statistically significant, suggesting that the empirical model can be implemented in multiple non-intervention years with results similar to the true 1996 interruption year.

Conclusions

Current evidence showing decreases in firearm mortality after the 1996 Australian national firearm law relies on an empirical model that may have limited ability to identify the true effects of the law.

     

Sexual Dimorphism of the Humerus in Contemporary Cretans—A Population‐Specific Study and a Review of the Literature*

Abstract: Sex determination is the first essential step for positive identification when a decomposed body is recovered. Taking into consideration the population aspect of sexual dimorphism of the skeleton, the present study aimed to create a sex identification technique using osteometric standards, derived from a contemporary Cretan population. A total of 168 left humeri were measured according to standard osteometric techniques. The differences between the means in males and females were significant (p < 0.0005). About 92.3% of cases were correctly classified when all measurements were applied jointly. Stepwise procedure produced an accuracy rate of 92.9%. The most effective single dimension was vertical head diameter (89.9%). The current study provides standards for a population that has not been represented so far in the existing databases. It demonstrates that the humerus is an effective bone for the estimation of sex because even in a fragmentary state it can give high classification accuracy.     

The difficult issue of age assessment on pedo-pornographic material

The issue of juvenile pornography has seen an increase in the past few years of the number of expert opinions requested to forensic pathologists, paediatricians and other various experts within the forensic and medical fields concerning the age of represented individuals. Regardless of the entity of the problem, no actual method exists which can allow us to give an objective and scientific answer, particularly in the postpubertal stage. Using parameters related to sexual maturation can be very dangerous. Nonetheless some experts still insist with similar types of “expertises”. This study aims at verifying the ability of different experts in assessing age of postpubertal individuals represented in pornographic material. Results underline the difficulties and major uncertainties of age evaluation by visual observation of photographic material particularly when the subjects have reached the sexual maturation stage – and therefore in verifying whether the individual is above or below 18 years of age (an important age limit for most European countries as far as this type of crime is concerned). Furthermore the study stresses the need both to search for an alternate approach and to apply extreme caution in judicial evaluation.     

Soziales Mietrecht in Spanien

Der vorliegende Beitrag setzt die Reihe "Soziales Mietrecht in Europa" fort; die Beitr?ge werden im Rahmen eines von Prof. Dr. Paul Oberhammer (Zürich) und Univ.-Prof. Dr. Andreas Kletečka (Salzburg) geleiteten und vom Jubil?umsfonds der Oesterreichischen Nationalbank gef?rderten Projekts (Projektnummer 11997) erstellt und sollen rechtsvergleichende Impulse für die ?sterreichische Diskussion bieten.     

International Trends in Prison Upsizing and Downsizing: In Search of Evidence of a Global Rehabilitation Revolution

Abstract

Our review of global trends in the use of incarceration reveals that both the number of people incarcerated worldwide and the global rate of incarceration continue to increase in every global region. In addition, there have been sizable global increases in the use of pretrial detention, the proportion of female prisoners, the proportion of foreign prisoners, prison privatization, and prison crowding. After reviewing these global trends, we examine the available data on correctional performance, focusing on global crime trends in the subgroup of countries (n = 20) where three-quarters of the world’s prison population is currently located. While most (17/20) of these countries continued to increase their prison population despite decreases in most crime categories, three countries—the Russian Federation, South Africa, and Pakistan—have reduced their reliance on incarceration (number and rate) while also reducing their crime rates. Compared to other countries with large prison populations, the United States’ overall increase in both the prison population (+14.4% since 2000) and incarceration rate (+2.2) can be described as modest. Our review of global trends in corrections and sentencing policy reforms revealed an emerging focus on offender rehabilitation in both prison and community corrections settings and a growing recognition of the link between community development and crime. Focusing on the potential impact of rehabilitation-rich policy reforms in the United States, we highlight the results of a recent simulation modeling study (Taxman & Pattavina, 2013 Pattavina, A., & Taxman, F. S. (2013). Using discrete-event simulation modeling to estimate the impact of RNR program implementation on recidivism levels. In F. S. Taxman & A. Pattavina (Eds.), Simulation strategies to reduce recidivism (pp. 267–281). New York, NY: Springer.[Crossref] , [Google Scholar]) designed to estimate the impact of expanding our institutional corrections treatment infrastructure. This study reported significant, but relatively small, long-term reductions in prison populations when treatment capacity and treatment quality are increased. These findings suggest that even major improvement in the quantity and quality of prison programming—by itself—will not fundamentally change the life course of prisoners, resulting in continued high return-to-prison rates for these offenders. We conclude that for the United States to significantly reduce its reliance on incarceration, we will need to rethink our approach to crime and punishment. Our global review of corrections and sentencing strategies identified a number of possibilities. Using the global incarceration rate and the global crime rate as benchmark performance “tipping points,” we call for the development of corrections and sentencing policies—and the hiring of corrections personnel—based on the new goal of corrections: individual and community rehabilitation.     

Sex estimation in a Turkish population using Purkait’s triangle: a virtual approach by 3-dimensional computed tomography (3D-CT)

Sex estimation is considered one of the first steps in the forensic identification process. Morphological and morphometrical differences between males and females have been used as means for morphoscopic and metric methods on both cranial and postcranial skeletal elements. When dry skeletal elements are not available, virtual data can be used as a substitute. The present research explores 3-dimensional (3D) scans from a Turkish population to test a sex estimation method developed by Purkait (2005).Overall, 296 individuals were used in this study (158 males and 138 females). Purkait’s triangle parameters were measured on computed tomography (CT) scans obtained from both right and left femora of each patient at the Bakirkoy Dr. Sadi Konuk Training Research Hospital (Istanbul, Turkey). Intra- and inter-observer errors were assessed for all variables through technical error of measurements analysis. Bilateral asymmetry and sex differences were evaluated using parametric and non-parametric statistical approaches. Univariate and multivariate discriminant function analyses were then conducted.Observer errors demonstrated an overall agreement within and between experts, as indicated by technical error of measurement (TEM) results. No bilateral asymmetries were reported, and all parameters demonstrated a statistically significant difference between males and females. Fourteen discriminant models were generated by applying single and combined parameters, producing a total correct sex classification ranging from 78.4% to 92.6%. In addition, over 67% of the total sample was accurately classified, with 95% or greater posterior probabilities.Our study demonstrates the feasibility of 3D sex estimation using Purkait’s triangle on a Turkish population, with accuracy rates comparable to those reported in other populations. This is the first attempt to apply this method on virtual data and although further validation and standardisation are recommended for its application on dry bone, this research constitutes a significant contribution to the development of population-specific standards when only virtual data are available.

Key points

• CT analysis using Purkait’s triangle is a suitable tool for assessment of sex in unidentified individuals.
• The best overall estimation rate was achieved with the F11 model, with around 92% of accuracy.
• The results suggested 78.4% to 92.6% correct sex identification rates.
• More research is needed to expand the sample set and verify the results.

     

Contemporary Russian conservatism

This article analyzes contemporary Russian conservatism through the prism of ideational and positionist ideological perspectives. The author argues that Russian conservatism proposes a distinct value package through its anthropocentric nature, its plans for modernization of Russia, and its future outlook that must rest on the best elements of tradition. The author compares these trends with the Western conservative tradition, making distinct parallels between the two strands of conservative thought. The author also explores the attitude of Russian conservatism toward the post-modern world. This is intrinsically linked to the discussion of Russia's attempts to develop a political and ideational alternative to the West, introduce a distinct model for the architecture of international relations, and find Russia's position in the global world.     

Development of a heptaplex PCR system to analyse X-chromosome STR loci from five Italian population samples. A collaborative study

Many X-chromosome short tandem repeats (X-STRs) have been validated for forensic use even if further studies are needed on allele frequencies and mutation rates to evaluate the extent of polymorphism in different populations and to establish reference databases useful for forensic applications and for anthropological studies. A single multiplex reaction of seven X-STRs, which includes the DXS6789, HUMARA, DXS10011, DXS7423, HPRTB, DXS6807, DXS101 loci, is presented and their allele frequency distribution in a large population sample including 556 subjects (268 females and 288 males) analysed by five forensic laboratories of Central and Northern Italy is shown. Our results demonstrate the feasibility of a single amplification/detection reaction involving seven markers of the X chromosome, which can be fruitfully used in complex kinship analysis.