The prevalence of co-witnesses and co-witness discussions in real eyewitnesses

Abstract

Several laboratory studies have shown that eyewitness discussions can negatively affect memory recall. The current study looked at the prevalence of multiple witnesses using real witnesses at a UK identification suite. We investigated the frequency of co-witness discussion, what the co-witnesses tended to discuss and whether there was an association between this information, and the outcome of the identification. Sixty witnesses at the Force Identification Unit in Brighton (UK) filled out a questionnaire following the identification procedure. Co-witnesses were reported by 88% of the sample, with the average number of co-witnesses being 4.02 (SD=6.52). In addition, 58% of the multiple witnesses had discussed the criminal event with at least one co-witness. The most common areas of discussion were ‘general crime details’ (52%) and ‘suspect details’ (39%). The implications of these findings are discussed.     

Goffman on the Jury: Real Jurors’ Attention to the “Offstage” of Trials

Social psychologist Erving Goffman, in his classic work The Presentation of Self in Everyday Life, provides a framework that explains why jurors may turn their attention at the courthouse to information not formally presented from the witness stand. We dub this “offstage observation,” a type of juror behavior that has not been systematically examined empirically. Analyzing a unique data source of 50 actual jury deliberations in civil trials, we find that jurors do look to the offstage in evaluating the claims of the parties. However, in contrast to predictions, these observations played a surprisingly minor role in the jury deliberation process.     

Does prison strain lead to prison misbehavior? An application of general strain theory to inmate misconduct

Purpose

This paper applies macro-micro General Strain Theory (GST) to predict prisoner misconduct. It is hypothesized that prison-based strain will adversely affect inmates and increase their misconduct.

Methods

Data from a large southern state are used to examine how environmental strain measured at the prison level influence inmates’ violent misconduct. Analyses will include a group-based trajectory model on monthly counts of violent misconduct for the first three years of incarceration and assess whether the strain of the environment (using a latent measure of prison deprivation as a proxy for environmental strain) distinguishes between trajectories. The analysis will employ finite multilevel mixture modeling with environmental strain as both a within- and between-class predictor, but at the prison level.

Results

Findings suggest that prison strain is positively associated with prison misconduct; however, the magnitude of the effect varies across distinct inmate trajectories.

Conclusions

Theoretical and practical implications are highlighted as are directions for future research.     

What stock market returns to expect for the future?

In evaluating proposals for reforming Social Security that involve stock investments, the Office of the Chief Actuary (OCACT) has generally used a 7.0 percent real return for stocks. The 1994-96 Advisory Council specified that OCACT should use that return in making its 75-year projections of investment-based reform proposals. The assumed ultimate real return on Treasury bonds of 3.0 percent implies a long-run equity premium of 4.0 percent. There are two equity-premium concepts: the realized equity premium, which is measured by the actual rates of return; and the required equity premium, which investors expect to receive for being willing to hold available stocks and bonds. Over the past two centuries, the realized premium was 3.5 percent on average, but 5.2 percent for 1926 to 1998. Some critics argue that the 7.0 percent projected stock returns are too high. They base their arguments on recent developments in the capital market, the current high value of the stock market, and the expectation of slower economic growth. Increased use of mutual funds and the decline in their costs suggest a lower required premium, as does the rising fraction of the American public investing in stocks. The size of the decrease is limited, however, because the largest cost savings do not apply to the very wealthy and to large institutional investors, who hold a much larger share of the stock market's total value than do new investors. These trends suggest a lower equity premium for projections than the 5.2 percent of the past 75 years. Also, a declining required premium is likely to imply a temporary increase in the realized premium because a rising willingness to hold stocks tends to increase their price. Therefore, it would be a mistake during a transition period to extrapolate what may be a temporarily high realized return. In the standard (Solow) economic growth model, an assumption of slower long-run growth lowers the marginal product of capital if the savings rate is constant. But lower savings as growth slows should partially or fully offset that effect. The present high stock prices, together with projected slow economic growth, are not consistent with a 7.0 percent return. With a plausible level of adjusted dividends (dividends plus net share repurchases), the ratio of stock value to gross domestic product (GDP) would rise more than 20-fold over 75 years. Similarly, the steady-state Gordon formula--that stock returns equal the adjusted dividend yield plus the growth rate of stock prices (equal to that of GDP)--suggests a return of roughly 4.0 percent to 4.5 percent. Moreover, when relative stock values have been high, returns over the following decade have tended to be low. To eliminate the inconsistency posed by the assumed 7.0 percent return, one could assume higher GDP growth, a lower long-run stock return, or a lower short-run stock return with a 7.0 percent return on a lower base thereafter. For example, with an adjusted dividend yield of 2.5 percent to 3.0 percent, the market would have to decline about 35 percent to 45 percent in real terms over the next decade to reach steady state. In short, either the stock market is overvalued and requires a correction to justify a 7.0 percent return thereafter, or it is correctly valued and the long-run return is substantially lower than 7.0 percent (or some combination). This article argues that the "overvalued" view is more convincing, since the "correctly valued" hypothesis implies an implausibly small equity premium. Although OCACT could adopt a lower rate for the entire 75-year period, a better approach would be to assume lower returns over the next decade and a 7.0 percent return thereafter.     

Friendship and Attachment Among Heterosexual and Sexual-Minority Youths: Does the Gender of Your Friend Matter?

One-hundered and sixty-eight sexual-minority and heterosexual youths aged 15–24 completed questionnaires to assess gender and sexual orientation differences in the percentage of same-gender peers in youths' friendship networks, the gender of their best friends, and their degree of attachment to these friends. Most youths had predominantly same-gender peer networks and same-gender best friends. Notable gender differences emerged among sexual minorities. Female sexual-minority youths reported heightened participation in close same-gender friendships, whereas sexual-minority male youths showed the opposite pattern. Unlike all other groups, male sexual-minority youths had more cross-gender than same-gender friends and were more attached to their best friends than were heterosexual males. They were also less attached to their romantic partners than were heterosexual males. It is suggested that male sexual-minority youths might become highly attached to friends to compensate for low expectations of intimacy with male romantic partners. Cultural factors contributing to these gender differences in sexual-minority youths' experiences are discussed.     

Either with us or against us? Third-country alignment with EU sanctions against Russia/Ukraine

Since the mid-1990s, selected neighbours have in impressive numbers aligned with European Union (EU) foreign policy sanctions. However, much more than for any other sanctions case, neighbours have declined joining recent measures against Russia/Ukraine. This article uses freshly gathered data from the entire period of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) to analyse how the practice of alignment influences international relations in Europe. Thereby, the article demonstrates that: (1) sanctions are not a two-party game, but an instrument that impacts broadly on relations with third countries; (2) alignment with sanctions not only articulates similarity, but contributes to normative polarization in wider Europe; (3) for a high-salience case such as Russia sanctions, neighbours are reluctant to be instrumentalized for EU foreign policy purposes.     

Irish Unification After Brexit: Old and New Political Identities?

This article contends that the outcome of the prolonged dispute about the future constitutional status of Northern Ireland (NI) will be shaped by the emerging dynamic between ‘old’ and ‘new’ political identities in NI. The ‘old’ identities conceived political outcomes as defined by two monolithic ethno-cultural blocs: nationalism (alongside republicanism) and unionism (alongside loyalism). Nationalism and unionism formed the ‘two communities model’ of consociational governance enshrined in the Belfast/Good Friday Agreement (B/GFA). Today, despite the Agreement being in existence for over twenty years, growing numbers of citizens identify with neither ethno-cultural category. Recent elections indicate that more pluralistic ‘new’ political identities are gaining ground at the expense of traditional alignments. The implications for NI's constitutional future are likely to be profound. The emerging constituency of non-aligned voters will have a decisive impact on the final outcome of any border poll on Irish unification. Such voters typically support the cross-community Alliance Party, the Greens, or the left People Before Profit (PBP) party. Crucially, these parties are concerned as much with economic and social issues as constitutional questions. In the context of growing political fluidity, the result of any future border poll remains contingent.     

The Party's View of Dyadic Responsiveness: A Survey Experiment in Sweden

When responding to citizens who make direct contact, politicians perform an act that matters not only to themselves and the contacting citizen, but also to colleagues within the party. This article studies whether some types of responsive behaviour are more accepted within the party than others. It also studies the circumstances that increase and decrease acceptability for party colleagues’ responsiveness. In a survey experiment, 1,660 Swedish politicians were asked to approve of different communicative and adaptive responses given by a fictive colleague. Results show that responses that aim at changing the party from within are well regarded, but that open and external responses, which are more visible to voters, are considerably less liked by the politician's colleagues. The implication is that norms surrounding dyadic responsiveness are strong within parties and that they are likely to influence when and how citizens get responses from individual politicians.