The devil’s advocate in intelligence: the Israeli experience

Many intelligence services around the world maintain mechanisms intended to help minimize the risk of erroneous intelligence assessments. One of the best-known mechanisms is the ‘devil’s advocate’ whose goal is to present – sometimes artificially – an intelligence assessment that contradicts the prevailing view. The goal of this practice is to try to encourage doubts, both among intelligence assessors and among decision-makers. This paper will describe the importance and function of the 'devil’s advocate' mechanism in intelligence. Using Israel as a test case, the paper will seek to draw conclusions regarding the desirable format of operations of this mechanism.     

Ironie als Methode

Dieser Artikel stellt theoretische und methodische Ansätze einer neoklassischen Soziologie vor. Die neoklassische Soziologie versteht sich als eine Habermas’sche Rekonstruktion der von ihren klassischen Theoretikern, hier vor allem Max Weber, konzeptualisierten, grundlegenden Idee der Disziplin. Mit Blick auf die Entwicklungen in Ost- und Mitteleuropa widersprechen wir der dominanten Vorstellung einer einzigen, homogenisierenden Globalisierungslogik. Sowohl in der Geschichte als auch in der Gegenwart lässt sich nämlich eine bemerkenswerte Vielfalt kapitalistischer Formen und Ausprägungen feststellen. Weder soziologische Netzwerktheorien oder Theorien der ?Einbettung“ noch ökonomische Modelle rationalen Handelns vermögen diese Vielfalt angemessen zu erfassen. Der hier vorgestellte neoklassische Ansatz verknüpft empirische, vergleichende Ansätze der Untersuchung des Kapitalismus mit einem ironischen historischen Analyseansatz und ermöglicht so erst eine differenzierte und kritische soziologische Analyse der verschiedenen Formen des Kapitalismus.     

Explaining Self‐Interested Behavior of Public‐Spirited Policy Makers

Public choice theory (PCT) has had a powerful influence on political science and, to a lesser extent, public administration. Based on the premise that public officials are rational maximizers of their own utility, PCT has a quite successful record of correctly predicting governmental decisions and policies. This success is puzzling in light of behavioral findings showing that officials do not necessarily seek to maximize their own utility. Drawing on recent advances in behavioral ethics, this article offers a new behavioral foundation for PCT's predictions by delineating the psychological processes that lead well‐intentioned people to violate moral and social norms. It reviews the relevant findings of behavioral ethics, analyzes their theoretical and policy implications for officials' decision making, and sets an agenda for future research.     

Moral Courage: A Sociological Perspective

While many social scientists have written about obedience and conformity, few have analyzed the conduct of outliers and nonconformists who defy these forces by engaging in acts of moral courage. Among psychologists and philosophers, moral courage is often portrayed as an individualistic phenomenon that is immune to sociological analysis. This paper challenges this view, positing that social ties with like-minded coconspirators, an identification with ‘imagined others’ who espouse similar moral beliefs, and social interactions that awaken the conscience play a crucial role in facilitating these seemingly solitary acts. Drawing on two original case studies – a border guard who defied a restrictive immigration law on the eve of World War II, and a Serb who crossed the lines of ethnic division during the Balkan wars of the 1990s – the article illuminates the social dimensions of moral courage and contributes to the project of developing a social psychology of conscience.     

Hizballah in Lebanon ‐ at the crossroads

Hizballah, the Party of God, burst onto the Lebanese scene in a whirlwind of violence at the end of 1983. Since then, it has become a power with considerable clout in the Shi'i community of Lebanon. At the end of the 1980s it reached the height of its strength when it gained control of most parts of the Shi'i concentrations in Lebanon. However, since then, Hizballah has faced a series of challenges which threaten its continued activity, if not its very existence, including the Ta'if agreement, the Middle East peace process and Iran's increasing inability to support Hizballah. In the face of these challenges, Hizballah appears pragmatic, willing, it seems, to abandon its goals, at least for the time being. This, however, raises a key question: Can the organization truly change course and turn away from the ideological commitment and path of violence that have characterized it to date? Or do those aspects indeed define the organization? It is still too early to lay odds on the organization's future, but it seems that it may be in jeopardy.