中国与大国关系预测

根据对2007年4～6月相关资讯材料的评估,中国与各主要大国之间双边关系的实际变化如下:中美关系变化为平平降,由1.9降至1.7,两国围绕人权、西藏、国会议案等问题发生一系列纠纷;中日关系变化为升平升,由-1.3升至-0.6,温家宝总理访日、东海问题磋商、胡锦涛主席与安倍晋三首相在德会晤促进了双边关系的改善;中俄关系变化为平平平,分值为7.8,期间的主要事件是吴仪副总理访俄;中英关系变化为平平平,分值为4.9,期间的主要事件为英国副首相普雷斯科特和英国外交大臣贝克特访华;中法关系变化为平平平,分值为6.3,期间中法外交主要事件为胡锦涛主席与萨科齐总统在德会晤;中印关系变化为平平平,分值为5.3,期间的正面事件有印度舰队访华和中国副外长戴秉国访印,但双方就所谓的"阿鲁纳恰尔邦"官员访华签证一事发生纠纷;中德关系变化为平平平,分值为5.8,期间德国总统克勒访华,但双方就德国联邦议院通过涉华劳教制度议案一事发生纠纷.这表明,预测组于2007年4月所做预测的平均准确率为86%,平均分值误差为0.02.     

中国参与国际气候谈判的立场演变

中国参与国际气候谈判的历程是同期中国整体外交的缩影,其立场演变经历了被动却积极参与、谨慎保守参与以及活跃开放参与三个发展阶段,且每个阶段气候谈判立场的演变都有着内在的决定因素。气候外交作为中国整体外交的一部分,深刻反映了中国外交日趋成熟的发展进程。     

The EU’s Foreign Policy Under Debt Crisis

Under the impact of the sovereign debt crisis, the European Union pays less attention to its foreign policy and the Common Foreign Policy tends to be "renationalized"; the EU is again embracing "geo-economics" with an enhanced tendency of highlighting economic ties and trade in its external relations; EU countries have greatly cut their defence expenditures, making it more difficult to implement the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) in future. The author holds that the prospects of economic growth in the Eurozone countries, European integration under the pressure of structural changes in international relations, and competition and collaboration in a multiple structure of foreign policy establishments are combined to shape the EU’s foreign policy in the coming years.     

China's Greatest Contribution to the World Lies in Safeguarding Democracy and Wellbeing for One-Fifth of Humanity

China has a population that is one-fifth of humanity. Most of its people live in rural areas. This country has been built and developed on the ruins of semi-colonialism and semi-feudalism and on a foundation of poverty and blankness. The     

Return to Human Orientation: Route for China to Secure Human Rights in 21st Century

The 30 years of reform and opening up in China have given birth to fast economic development, the everchanging look of the society and great     

Poverty Elimination: An Innate Component of Contemporary Basic Concept of Human Rights

In 1969, the UN delivered its Declaration on Social Progress and Development, clearly call- ing for the elimination of poverty; the assurance of a steady     

国际货币权力的历史经验与"第三世界货币区"的可能性

通过对已有货币国际化历史进程的回顾与分析,本文总结了国际货币权力更迭的一般规律,并得出人民币国际化有必要夯实区域基础等基本结论。研究发现,除亚洲之外,非洲、拉美的一些国家和地区与中国在贸易投资等方面有紧密的联系,甚至存在对中国的不对称依赖。这些区域均具备推行人民币国际化的器物基础和一定的制度基础,人民币区域化的视野应当超越亚洲一隅,兼具亚洲特色和世界器局。最后,本文提出并初步论述了指向第三世界货币区的人民币区域化路线图。     

国际原子能机构的困境与未来

国际原子能机构成立的初衷是促进核能的民用,但如何在促进核能民用的同时防范核扩散是该机构诞生以来一直面临的困境。近年来,国际原子能机构在伊拉克和伊朗的核查历史表明,该机构所面临的挑战如果得不到妥善解决,那么,未来无论是在促进核能民用还是在防范核扩散方面均将作为有限。本文简要回顾了IAEA成立的历史,并在分析其内在困境以及在两伊核查中所存在问题的基础上,提出了IAEA应对日益增多的挑战的出路。     

World Economic Prospects in the Next Ten Years

The world economy,which has displayed unprecedented changes in the 21st century,has three characteristics: the collective rise of emerging powers,the escalating development of globalization,and the further deterioration of global imbalances. International economic development,the relationship between market demand and supply,the balance of power between South and North,and world economic relations and world order are in a state of constant flux. In the next ten years,the world economy will follow a trend th...     

Africa Welcomes Its New Opportunity for Peaceful Development

From the 1980s to the mid-1990s,Africa’s economic development stagnated. Its geopolitical importance diminished remarkably after the end of the Cold War. Africa was once a strategic abandoned pawn of the West. For quite a long period of time,Africa pessimism was very popular in international society. Nevertheless,over the past decade,major changes have taken place in Africa. Its economic development has changed from a low-ebb period into a growth period. Its international status has changed from being margi...