‘A confession of ignorance’: deaths from old age and deciphering cause-of-death statistics in Scotland, 1855–1949

A large amount of the research undertaken in an attempt to discover the reasons underlying the late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century mortality decline in Britain has relied on the statistics published by the Registrars General. The processes by which individual causes of death are recorded and then processed in order to create the statistics are not, however, well understood. In this article, the authors build on previous work to piece together a time series of causes of death for Scotland, which removes many of the discontinuities encountered in the published statistics that result from the Registrar General deciding to update the nosology, or classification system, which was being used to compile his figures. Having regrouped individual causes of death to ‘smooth’ the time series, the authors use the new groups to examine the changing causes of death in Scotland for selected age groups, before turning to undertake a detailed examination of mortality amongst those aged 55 or more. The authors find that when deaths from ‘old age’ in the latter age group are separated from other ‘ill-defined’ causes, it becomes obvious that there was a ‘rebranding’ of cause of death. The authors then use individual-level data from two Scottish communities to further dissect the roles played by ‘informants’ and ‘doctors’ in this rebranding, in order to see how these roles may have altered over time and what the consequences might be for one's view of how mortality changed in Scotland between 1855 and 1949. Finally, the authors argue that their findings have important implications for some of historical demography's most prominent theories: the McKeown thesis and the theory of epidemiological transition.     

Performance characteristics of the Cozart RapiScan Oral Fluid Drug Testing System for opiates in comparison to ELISA and GC/MS following controlled codeine administration

Oral fluid is an interesting alternative matrix for drug testing in many environments, including law enforcement, workplace drug testing, and drug treatment facilities. Performance characteristics of the FDA-cleared, qualitative, Cozart RapiScan Opiate Oral Fluid Drug Testing System (Opiate Cozart RapiScan System or Opiate CRS) were compared to the semi-quantitative Cozart Microplate EIA Opiate Oral Fluid Kit (Opiate ELISA) and to gas chromatography/mass spectrometry (GC/MS). The following oral fluid opiate cutoffs were evaluated: the GC/MS limit of quantification (LOQ) of 2.5 mg/l; 15 microg/l currently used for oral fluid testing in the United Kingdom (UK); 30 microg/l (Opiate CRS cutoff); and 40 microg/l, the proposed Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration (SAMHSA) cutoff. Subjects provided informed consent to participate in this IRB-approved research and resided on the closed research ward throughout the study. Three oral codeine doses of 60 mg/70 kg were administered over a 7-day period. After a 3-week break, subjects received three doses of 120 mg/70 kg within 7 days. Oral fluid specimens (N = 1273) were analyzed for codeine (COD), norcodeine (NCOD), morphine (MOR) and normorphine (NMOR) by GC/MS with an LOQ of 2.5 microg/l for all analytes. MOR and NMOR were not detected in any sample; 26.5% of the specimens were positive for COD and 13.7% for NCOD. Opiate CRS uses a preset, qualitative cutoff of 10 microg/l; this is equivalent to 30 microg/l in undiluted oral fluid as the oral fluid collection process involves a 1:3 dilution with buffer. Sensitivity, specificity, and efficiency of Opiate CRS compared to Opiate ELISA were 98.6, 98.1, and 98.2% at a 30 microg/l cutoff and 99.0, 96.2, and 96.6% at a 40 microg/l cutoff. Compared to the much lower GC/MS LOQ of 2.5 microg/l, sensitivity, specificity and efficiency were 66.8, 99.3 and 90.7%. Increasing the GC/MS cutoff to the current UK level yielded performance characteristics of 81.5% (sensitivity), 99.3% (specificity), and 95.4% (efficiency). Using a GC/MS cutoff identical to the preset Opiate CRS cutoff yielded sensitivity, specificity, and efficiency of 88.5, 99.2, and 97.5%, respectively. At the proposed SAMSHA confirmation cutoff of 40 microg/l, sensitivity increased with little change in specificity and efficiency (91.3% sensitivity, 98.9% specificity, and 97.5% efficiency). Oral fluid is a suitable matrix for detecting drugs of abuse. Opiate CRS, with a 30 microg/l cutoff, is sufficiently sensitive, specific and efficient for oral fluid opiate analysis, performing similarly to Opiate ELISA at the same cutoff, and having performance characteristics >91% when compared to GC/MS at the proposed SAMHSA cutoff.     

Lifetime and six-month prevalence of psychiatric disorders among sentenced female offenders

The authors determined the six-month and lifetime prevalence of psychiatric disorders among 100 consecutively admitted female offenders to a prison, using Diagnostic Interview Schedule (DIS Version III) and found high prevalence rates of schizophrenia, major depression, substance use disorders, psychosexual dysfunction, and antisocial personality disorders. The prevalence rates of these disorders were significantly higher than those of the general population. The authors note the implications of their findings for treatment of women within the correctional system.     

Reducing homicide: A review of the possibilities

This paper explores the potential for reducing homicide, with a particular focus on the United Kingdom. It draws upon data from the Homicide Index, international research on homicide, and the general crime reduction literature. Homicide is highly diverse in its characteristics, causes and dynamics, so effective strategies to reduce it are likely to require tailoring to specific forms. The paper focuses upon four important categories: domestic (partner) homicide; the killing of infants; alcohol-related homicide; and homicide involving guns and knives. Attention is also paid briefly to issues around dangerous offenders and mental disorder, and to homicide victimisation in relation to specific occupations.This paper was written in 2001 and accepted for publication by Crime Law and Social Change in 2002. Some minor updating has been undertaken by the authors, but due to the delay some sections will inevitably not refer to the most recent research. An earlier version of the paper was published online by the Home Office in 2003.