Perilous semi-presidentialism? On the democratic performance of Timor-Leste government system

ABSTRACT

Timor-Leste chose semi-presidentialism as its government system to steer the country towards a democratic state. This government system became popular in the course of the ‘Third Wave’ of democratization, but has no other example in Southeast Asia. The Timorese Constituent Assembly was guided not by an appraisal of the virtues and pitfalls of competing systems, but by historical and political factors that led it to craft an institutional solution in line with significant features of Timorese society. Yet the specific form of semi-presidentialism adopted in Timor-Leste (‘president-parliamentarism’) is regarded in the literature as prone to instability. However, in spite of episodes of instability, the conclusion emerging from three consecutive presidencies is one of positive steps in democracy-building and consolidation. This is mainly due to the emergence of ‘independent’ presidents who have sought power-sharing arrangements and promoted inclusive governance.     

Analysing stages of subnational mobilisation across the European Union: The case of subnational administrations in Turkey

Subnational mobilisation literature has tended to focus on EU members and either their establishment of liaison offices or the engagement activities of their subnational administrations (SNAs) with the EU institutions in Brussels. Extending this scope to include cases from a candidate state, this article aims to enhance our understanding of such processes by proposing a four-stage model for subnational mobilisation in the EU. The model includes: growing awareness; changing organizational settings; building transnational activities; and conducting EU-level activities in Brussels. Based on 65 semi-structured interviews with representatives from local and national institutions in Turkey and EU institutions in Brussels, this work evaluates six SNAs from three Turkish cities (?zmir, Samsun and Diyarbak?r) between 1999 and 2013. Findings reveal that patterns of subnational mobilisation can vary significantly within a single candidate country, owing mostly to organizational-level factors and region-specific factors related to how particular administrations are embedded.     

Public Choice Failure and Voter Incompetence in France

This article explains failures of politics and government through the incompetence of voters and their perception biases. It illustrates this argument using the French case. If voters lack knowledge and develop irrational beliefs, then voting is probably not effective as a mechanism for sanctioning public policy. The incompetence of French voters and their anti‐capitalist bias is well documented. This incompetence can be partly explained by the low cost of holding irrational beliefs in politics. Voters’ anti‐capitalist attitudes are explained by the utility they obtain from expressing themselves in favour of state intervention, and by France's prohibitive level of justification costs of holding pro‐capitalist views. The resulting biases contribute to the failure of public choice.     

The Fulfillment of Parties’ Election Pledges: A Comparative Study on the Impact of Power Sharing

Why are some parties more likely than others to keep the promises they made during previous election campaigns? This study provides the first large‐scale comparative analysis of pledge fulfillment with common definitions. We study the fulfillment of over 20,000 pledges made in 57 election campaigns in 12 countries, and our findings challenge the common view of parties as promise breakers. Many parties that enter government executives are highly likely to fulfill their pledges, and significantly more so than parties that do not enter government executives. We explain variation in the fulfillment of governing parties’ pledges by the extent to which parties share power in government. Parties in single‐party executives, both with and without legislative majorities, have the highest fulfillment rates. Within coalition governments, the likelihood of pledge fulfillment is highest when the party receives the chief executive post and when another governing party made a similar pledge.     

Inter-industry Productivity Spillovers: An Analysis Using the 1989–1998 Brazilian Trade Liberalisation

Abstract

A major obstacle in the estimation of inter-industry (vertical) productivity spillovers is the need of an exogenous productivity shock. In this article, I propose the use of trade policy changes as a large productivity shock, since the literature has found evidence that trade liberalisations increase industry-level productivity. To do so, I develop a new empirical methodology using spatial econometrics, and apply it to the large economy-wide shock represented by the 1989–1998 Brazilian trade liberalisation. My results indicate the existence of positive and substantial upstream productivity spillovers. Nevertheless, no evidence of downstream productivity spillovers is found.     

Confidentiality and Privilege for Family and Child Protection Mediation: A Roadmap for Navigating the Innovation,Inconsistency and Confusion

This article will identify the inconsistency and confusion in mediation regarding the definition of mediation, the role of the mediator, and the difference between mediation confidentiality and privilege. Further, it will discuss the confusion and inconsistency in the protection of mediation communication, specifically regarding the definition of mediation communication, the time frame for protected communication, waiver of the protections and exceptions to protected mediation communication. It will provide a roadmap and fact pattern for determining whether mediation communications are protected and if so, the protection they are afforded. Lastly, it will offer recommendations so parties, professionals and the courts may better understand and reap the benefits of mediation.     

A tale of two railways and the Reuter family

Between the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, the influence of Baron Julius de Reuter and his famous agency, Reuters, was evident in his and his family's investments around the world. By looking at the histories of the Reuter Concession and the Greek Railway Concession, this work aims to offer insight into the international politics of certain governments and the value of news as a commodity at the time. The Reuter Concession illustrates part of the British-Russian conflict over Persia while the Greek Railway Concession demonstrates British policy toward the Ottoman Empire and Greco-Ottoman relations.     

Yet Another Case of Electoral and Government Epidemic? The Turkish Cypriot Legislative Election of January 2018

Following Bosco and Verney’s analyses of ‘electoral’ and ‘government epidemics’, the 2018 Turkish Cypriot legislative election is examined in the context of the impact of the economic crisis on elections and government formation in southern Europe. Despite its obvious idiosyncrasies as a self-declared state with 335,000 inhabitants, in the last decade of economic crisis and austerity policies, the Turkish Cypriot case has followed a largely similar pattern to other southern European countries: declining turnout; emergence of start-up parties; three consecutive early elections; a more fragmented parliament; sidelining of the biggest party in government formation; the first ever grand coalition; and, finally, an unprecedented four-party coalition bringing together parties from left, right, and centre.     

The role of rural indebtedness in the evolution of capitalism

Few studies have attempted to systematize the broader consequences of ordinary indebtedness – the inevitable other side of credit. My purpose here is to suggest four preliminary theses on the role of indebtedness in the evolution of capitalism, with special reference to the rural sphere. I argue that across time and space, credit/debt relations have not only been a key factor behind social differentiation through the control of land, labour and capital (Thesis I). They have also fostered market discipline by forcing the borrower – whether a poor peasant or a company manager – to calculate, pay, trade, work, intensify (Thesis II). Interest-bearing and guarantee-based loans have thus generated pressures for economic growth, short-termism and innovations, but have also undermined traditional community bonds and environmental conditions (Thesis III). Through its remarkable reward-or-punish nature, the credit/debt couple represents a powerful mechanism of social selection that has, in the long run, crucially shaped the evolution of capitalism (Thesis IV).     

The Influence of Romantic Attachment and Intimate Partner Violence on Non-Suicidal Self-Injury in Young Adults

Several theoretical models for non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) have been proposed. Despite an abundance of theoretical speculation, few empirical studies have examined the impact of intimate relationship functioning on NSSI. The present study examines the influence of romantic attachment and received intimate partner violence (physical, psychological and sexual) on recent reports of NSSI behaviors and thoughts. The sample was composed of 537 (79.9% female) primarily Caucasian university students between the ages of 18 and 25 years and currently involved in a romantic relationship. The results reveal that anxiety over abandonment was a significant predictor of NSSI thoughts and behaviors in women and a significant predictor of NSSI thoughts in men. Moreover, the experience of intimate partner violence emerged as a significant predictor of NSSI behaviors in both men and women. Continued empirical investigations into the influence of intimate relationship functioning on NSSI will facilitate the development of psychological interventions for young adults dealing with self-harm.