Gorbachev’s “new directions” in Asia

The Gorbachev regime has made a dramatic attempt to alter the political environment for Soviet policy in Asia and to shift regional perceptions in its favor. As elsewhere, the major components, of this new approach are the downplaying of the utility of military instruments of power, an emphasis on the peaceful resolution of regional disputes, a deemphasizing of the role of ideology, and a stepped-up effort to pursue relations with regional states through traditional diplomacy. The various elements of “new thinking” as qpplied to Asia have contributed to improved Soviet relations with China, South Korea, and several non-Communist states of Southeast Asia, and created an opportunity for improved relations with Japan. Carolyn McGiffert Ekedahl is a senior analyst at the Central Intelligence Agency and co-author ofThe Soviets and the Third World Under Gorbachev, (Westview Press, forthcoming).     

Assessing the Risk of Future Psychological Abuse: Predicting the Accuracy of Battered Women’s Predictions

Building on a handful of studies demonstrating battered women’s accuracy in assessing their risk of being physically reabused, this study examined how accurately victims assess their risk of future psychological abuse. Participants’ ratings of the likelihood that their partner would engage in controlling/dominance behaviors or efforts to humiliate/degrade them in the coming year and their reports 18 months later of whether this had actually occurred were used to create a four category version of accuracy (true positive, false positive, true negative, false negative). Victims were more likely to be right than wrong in their assessments of risk; PTSD symptoms, the recency of physical violence, and the degree of stalking and psychological abuse in the relationship predicted membership in the four accuracy categories. These findings overlap considerably with those examining victim accuracy in predicting physical abuse and inform ongoing debates about the value of incorporating victims’ insights into risk assessment efforts.

Acknowledgment

Acknowledgment

Acknowledgment     

Public Pensions and Collective Bargaining Rights: Evidence from State and Local Governments

An aging workforce and increasing retirement benefits are ongoing problems for states and municipalities. Unions are often blamed for governments offering too generous pension benefits. This contributes to budgetary pressures in some state and municipal governments. This article analyzes the impact of collective bargaining on pension benefit generosity under different economic conditions. The study finds that the impact of collective bargaining on pension benefits is not consistent over time or across pension plans. Collective bargaining has a positive effect on pension benefits under worsening economic conditions. Additionally, unions indirectly influence pension benefit generosity through campaign donations and unionization intensity. The findings suggest mixed impacts of collective bargaining on different groups of public employees regarding pension contributions. The article concludes with implications for the role of unions in public financial performance and strategic human resource management during fiscal austerity.     

The Developmental Unfolding of Sibling Influences on Alcohol Use over Time

Research has long demonstrated that siblings are similar in their alcohol use, however much of this work relies on cross-sectional samples or samples of adolescents alone and/or exclusive focus on older siblings’ impact on younger siblings. Using a three time-point design from early adolescence to early adulthood (M ages?=?14.9, 18.3, and 22.4 years, respectively; 55% female; 54% European ancestry, 38% Asian ancestry), we evaluated the prospective older and younger sibling influences on alcohol use across time (N?=?613 sibling pairs; 35% sisters, 26% brothers, 39% mixed-gender; average age difference?=?2.34 years; 34% full-biological siblings, 46% genetically-unrelated adopted siblings, 20% pairs where one child was the biological offspring of parents and the other was adopted). The results from both the traditional and random-intercept cross-lagged panel analyses showed that older siblings’ alcohol use predicted younger siblings’ alcohol use across each developmental transition and across a variety of sibling contexts (e.g., gender composition, age difference, genetic relatedness). On the other hand, younger siblings’ alcohol use only predicted older siblings’ alcohol use when siblings were close in age (1.5 years or less) and under conditions of high sibling companionship. These results add to a body of literature illustrating how both older and younger siblings are important socializing agents of adolescent and early adult alcohol use. Assessing or co-treating siblings for alcohol problems may be an important add-on to existing adolescent and early adult alcohol prevention and intervention programs.     

Administering elections in a digital age: Online voting in Ontario municipalities

To date, online voting studies have focused on impacts on political behaviour and voting security. Analyses of impacts on administrators and electoral governance remain sparse internationally and are relegated to overviews in technical reports in Canada (Pammett and Goodman 2013; Goodman and Pyman 2016). Drawing on an original survey of local administrators in Ontario following the 2014 municipal elections, this article explores how online voting impacts election administration. Findings suggest strong satisfaction with online voting, citizen‐centered rationales for adoption, and key differences in challenges and cost based on municipal size. We conclude with implications for the local governance of elections as technology plays a greater role in voting processes.     

The Longitudinal Consistency of Mother–Child Reporting Discrepancies of Parental Monitoring and Their Ability to Predict Child Delinquent Behaviors Two Years Later

This study examined the longitudinal consistency of mother–child reporting discrepancies of parental monitoring and whether these discrepancies predict children’s delinquent behaviors 2 years later. Participants included 335 mother/female-caregiver and child (46% boys, >90% African American; age range 9–16 years [M = 12.11, SD = 1.60]) dyads living in moderate-to-high violence areas. Mother–child discrepancies were internally consistent within multiple assessment points and across measures through a 2-year follow-up assessment. Further, mothers who at baseline consistently reported higher levels of parental monitoring relative to their child had children who reported greater levels of delinquent behaviors 2 years later, relative to mother–child dyads that did not evidence consistent discrepancies. This finding could not be accounted for by baseline levels of the child’s delinquency, maternal and child emotional distress, or child demographic characteristics. This finding was not replicated when relying on the individual reports of parental monitoring to predict child delinquency, suggesting that mother–child reporting discrepancies provided information distinct from the absolute frequency of reports. Findings suggest that mother–child discrepancies in reports of parental monitoring can be employed as new individual differences measurements in developmental psychopathology research.     

Book reviews

The following books are reviewed.

Between the lines: letters and diaries from elsie inglis's russian unit AUDREY FAWCETT CAHILL, 1999 Edinburgh: The Pentland Press. x + 372 pp., ISBN 1 85821 630 3, £17.00

For Freedom's Sake: the life of Fannie Lou Hamer CHANA KIA LEE, 1999 Urbana: University of Illinois Press, xvi + 225 pp. ISBN 0 252 02151 7

To Keep the Waters Troubled: the life of Ida B. Wells Linda O. McMurry, 1998 New York: Oxford University Press. xvi + 400 pp., ISBN 0 19 508812 3

Telling Women's Lives: narrative inquiries in the history of women's education KATHLEEN WEILER & SUE MIDDLETON (Eds), 1999 Buckingham: Open University Press. x + 166 pp., ISBN 0335 20173 3, paperback, £16.99

Remaking Women: feminism and modernity in the Middle East LILA ABU-LUGHOD (Ed.), 1998 Princeton: Princeton University Press. xi + 287 pp., ISBN 0 691 05792 3, paperback

Women's Writing of the First World War: an anthology ANGELA K. SMITH (Ed.), 2000 Manchester: Manchester University Press. xii + 340 pp., ISBN 0 7190 5072 3, hardback, 0 7190 5073 1, paperback     

Real Denial Rates: A New Tool to Look at Who Is Receiving Mortgage Credit

ABSTRACT

The observed mortgage denial rate (ODR), calculated from Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data, is often used to measure mortgage credit availability, but it does not account for shifts in applicants’ credit profiles. In this article, we develop an additional tool, which we call the real denial rate (RDR), as a way to account for credit differences and hence more consistently measure denial rates and mortgage credit accessibility. We match HMDA data with CoreLogic proprietary data to obtain both borrower demographic information (e.g., income and race and ethnicity) and mortgage credit characteristics (e.g., loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and credit scores). We account for shifts in applicants’ credit profiles by considering only the denial rate of low-credit-profile applicants. Our RDR results show that conventional mortgages have higher denial rates than government mortgages do, racial and ethnic differences are smaller than the ODR indicates but are not eliminated, and small-dollar mortgages have higher RDRs, particularly in the government loan channel.