Virginia's Revenue Forecasting Process and Models

In Virginia, major differences between revenue forecasts and actual revenue collections raised questions from legislators about the adequacy of the state's econometric forecasting models and the forecasting process itself. Consequently, Virginia's process and models were examined by the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission (JLARC), a legislative watchdog agency. The review found most of the differences could be attributed to declining economic factors and not poor forecasting. However, a surprisingly large component of the forecast was based on undocumented judgmental inputs that required greater oversight. Other states in similar circumstances may wish to evaluate their own forecasting process and econometric models using the JLARC approach.     

Warriors in the “new world order”

He writes regularly on matters of strategy. His publications include The Strategic Dimension of Military Manpower;and Paradoxes of Power: The Military Establishment in the Eighties.     

Reviews

AIDS in Africa: The Social and Policy Impact edited by Norman Miller and Richard C. Rockwell Edwin Mellen Press, Lewiston (New York) and Queenston (Ontario), 1988. xxxi plus 336 pp. including map, tables, figures, notes, appendices and selected bibliographies. $110,00.

The Politics of Africa's Economic Stagnation by Richard Sandbrook Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1985. xiii plus 180 pp. including map, tables, notes and index. R.25,50 paperback.

Imperialism and Dependency: Obstacles to African Development by Daniel A. Offiong Howard University Press, Washington, DC, 1982. 304 pp. including tables, bibliography and index. $6,95 paperback.

Early Field Recordings: A Catalogue of Cylinder Collections at the Indiana University Archives of Traditional Music edited by Anthony Seeger and Louise S. Spear Indiana University Press, Bloomington, 1987. xviii plus 198 pp. $22,50.

Western Sahara: The Roots of a Desert War by Tony Hodges Lawrence Hill and Co., Westport (Connecticut), 1983. xii plus 388 pp. including maps, illustrations, tables, notes, appendix, bibliography and index. £6,95 paperback.

Somalia: Nation in Search of a State by David D. Laitin and Said S. Samatar Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado), and Gower, London, 1987. xvii plus 198 pp. including maps, illustrations, figures, tables, notes and index. $28,00.

Superpower Diplomacy in the Horn of Africa by Samuel M. Makinda Croom Helm, London and Sydney, 1987. 242 pp. including notes, appendices, select bibliography and index. £22,50.

Industrialization in West Africa by J.O.C. Onyemelukwe Croom Helm, London, 1984. v plus 226 pp. including tables, figures, bibliography and index. £17,95.

Modern Kongo Prophets: Religion in a Plural Society by Wyatt MacGaffey Indiana University Press, Bloomington, 1983. xiii plus 285 pp. including tables, figures, illustrations, notes, references and index. $12,00 paperback.

Naissance du Mozambique: Résistance et Révoltes Anticoloniales, 1854–1918 (Two Volumes) by René Pélissier Editions Pélissier, Orgeval (France), 1984. 833 pp. including maps, tables, notes, bibliography and index. $45,00 paperback.

The Political Economy of Namibia: An Annotated, Critical Bibliography by Tore LinnÉ Eriksen with Richard Moorsom Scandinavian Institute of African Studies, Uppsala, 1985. 423 pp. including map and authors’ index. SEK 110.

The Bureaucratic Struggle for Control of US Foreign Aid: Diplomacy versus Development in Southern Africa by Caleb Rossiter Bowker Publishing Co., Epping (England), and Westview Press, Boulder (Colorado), 1985. xiii plus 250 pp. including figures, tables, notes, bibliography and index. $25,50 paperback.

The Politics of Economic Power in Southern Africa by Ronald T. Libby Princeton University Press, Princeton (New Jersey), 1987. xxiii plus 361 pp. including maps, tables, bibliography and index. $45,00. $14,50 paperback.

South Africa in Crisis edited by Jesmond Blumenfeld Croom Helm, London, 1987. x plus 207 pp. including tables, notes and index. £19,95.

Pass Controls and the Urban African Proletariat in South Africa By Doug Hindson Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1987. xii plus 121 pp. including notes, bibliography and index. R 14,00 paperback.

Hidden Struggles in Rural South Africa: Politics and Popular Movements in the Transkei and Eastern Cape, 1890–1930 by William Beinart and Colin Bundy Ravan Press, Johannesburg, 1987. xxvi plus 326 pp. including illustrations, maps, notes and index. R24,00 paperback.     

Dimensions of the self-concept: A source of further distinctions in the nature of self-consciousness

This study distinguished between forms of self-consciousness (private self-consciousness and social anxiety) and investigated the effect of self-esteem, vulnerability to criticism, and the tendency to fantasize on each. Utilizing a sample of adolescents (age 12 to 19 years), a structural equation analysis using unobserved variables revealed that, as expected, vulnerability to others' criticism heightened both private self-consciousness and social anxiety. In contrast, the tendency to fantasize in everyday life increased only private self-consciousness, and low self-esteem led directly only to increased social anxiety. Further, results showed that self-esteem had an appreciable indirect effect on both private self-consciousness and social anxiety, as mediated by vulnerability and the tendency to fantasize, indicating that the effect of self-esteem (a primary motivator) was more complex than an analysis of direct effects would indicate. Implications for our understanding of self-consciousness and the self-concept are discussed.My deepest thanks go to Morris Rosenberg, whose insights into the self-concept were indispensable, both in conceptualization and in analysis. I also thank John A. Fleishman and Edward Z. Dager for their constructive comments on early drafts of this article. Any errors remaining are my responsibility.This study was supported by NIMH Grant R01 MH27747-06 awarded to Morris Rosenberg. The data were analyzed using the facilities of the Computer Science Center, University of Maryland, College Park.Professor Elliott received his Ph.D. in sociology at the University of Wisconsin, Madison. His current major interest is in the structure of the self-concept.     

Estimating Dynamic Panel Data Models in Political Science

Panel data are a very valuable resource for finding empiricalsolutions to political science puzzles. Yet numerous publishedstudies in political science that use panel data to estimatemodels with dynamics have failed to take into account importantestimation issues, which calls into question the inferenceswe can make from these analyses. The failure to account explicitlyfor unobserved individual effects in dynamic panel data inducesbias and inconsistency in cross-sectional estimators. The purposeof this paper is to review dynamic panel data estimators thateliminate these problems. I first show how the problems withcross-sectional estimators arise in dynamic models for paneldata. I then show how to correct for these problems using generalizedmethod of moments estimators. Finally, I demonstrate the usefulnessof these methods with replications of analyses in the debateover the dynamics of party identification.     

Plasma,oral fluid and sweat wipe ecstasy concentrations in controlled and real life conditions

In a double-blind placebo controlled study on psychomotor skills important for car driving (Study 1), a 75 mg dose of +/- 3,4-methylenedioxymethamphetamine (MDMA) was administered orally to 12 healthy volunteers who were known to be recreational MDMA-users. Toxicokinetic data were gathered by analysis of blood, urine, oral fluid and sweat wipes collected during the first 5h after administration. Resultant plasma concentrations varied from 21 to 295 ng/ml, with an average peak concentration of 178 ng/ml observed between 2 and 4h after administration. MDA concentrations never exceeded 20 ng/ml. Corresponding MDMA concentrations in oral fluid, as measured with a specific LC-MS/MS method (which required only 50 microl of oral fluid), generally exceeded those in plasma and peaked at an average concentration of 1215 ng/ml. A substantial intra- and inter-subject variability was observed with this matrix, and values ranged from 50 to 6982 ng/ml MDMA. Somewhat surprisingly, even 4-5h after ingestion, the MDMA levels in sweat only averaged 25 ng/wipe. In addition to this controlled study, data were collected from 19 MDMA-users who participated in a driving simulator study (Study 2), comparing sober non-drug conditions with MDMA-only and multiple drug use conditions. In this particular study, urine samples were used for general drug screening and oral fluid was collected as an alternative to blood sampling. Analysis of oral fluid samples by LC-MS/MS revealed an average MDMA/MDEA concentration of 1121 ng/ml in the MDMA-only condition, with large inter-subject variability. This was also the case in the multiple drug condition, where generally, significantly higher concentrations of MDMA, MDEA and/or amphetamine were detected in the oral fluid samples. Urine screening revealed the presence of combinations such as MDMA, MDEA, amph, cannabis, cocaine, LSD and psilocine in the multiple-drug condition.