The use and limitations of conflict analysis: the case of the UNDP in the occupied Palestinian territory

The past two decades have seen international agencies pay closer attention to the relationship between conflict and development. An example of this is the UNDP and its conflict-related development analysis (CDA), which aims to identify the causes of conflict and design measures that will enhance development while reducing conflict. Through the case study of the CDA's application in the occupied Palestinian territory, the article reveals its main limitations including an emphasis on conflict management (as opposed to conflict reduction), the choice of (neo-liberal) development model, prioritisation of particular partners over others (i.e. ‘state’ over non-state) and an erroneous assumption of neutrality. These have become manifested into the UNDP's current programme for action which undermines its own stated objectives, to work ‘on’ the causes of conflict rather than ‘in’ or ‘around’ conflict. The UNDP's experience therefore has important lessons for the use of conflict analysis and policy design elsewhere.     

The maharishi effect: A model for social improvement. Time series analysis of a phase transition to reduced crime in merseyside metropolitan area

Abstract

Time series analysis was used to test the hypothesis that Merseyside crime rate was reduced by a group practising Maharishi Mahesh Yogi's Transcendental Meditation and TM-Sidhi programme. Previous research suggests that a phase transition to increased orderliness u evidenced by reduced crime rate should occur when the group size approaches the square root of 1% of the total population. Analysis of Merseyside monthly crime data and coherence group size from 1978 to 1991 shows that a phase transition occurred during March 1988 with a 13.4% drop in crime when the group size first exceeded the √1 % or Maharishi Effect threshold (p < 0.00006). Up to 1992, Merseyside crime rate has remained steady in contrast to the national crime rate which has increased by 45%. In 1987 Merseyside had the third highest rime rate of the eleven largest Metropolitan Areas in England and Wales; by 1992 it had the lowest crime rate. 40% below levels predicted by the previous behaviour of the series. There were 255,000 less crimes in Merseyside from 1988 to 1992 than would have been expected had Merseyside continued to follow the national crime trend. Home Office figures indicate savings to Merseyside could exceed £1250 million for the five year period. Demographic changes, economic variables, police practice, and other factors could not account for the changes.     

Sperm elution: An improved two phase recovery method for sexual assault samples

This report describes the validation of a two phase cell recovery technique for the elution of two common cell types, epithelia and spermatozoa, from frequently examined items submitted as part of sexual assault casework. Furthermore, separation of cell types prior to microscopic examination of cell pellets improves the scientist's confidence in observing and scoring spermatozoa that may be present. During the validation, Orchid Cellmark's Sperm Elution© method consistently recovered a greater number of spermatozoa from simulated sexual assault items and swabs taken following consensual sexual intercourse compared to a water extraction technique. On average the Sperm Elution method recovered over twice the number of spermatozoa compared to the water method. The ability to separate the cell types present allows a rapid microscope slide search for spermatozoa and faster DNA extraction protocol in comparison to Cellmark's previous preferential method.     

Comparison of methods for visualizing blood on dark surfaces

Difficulties can arise when screening dark casework items for blood, a poor contrast between blood and the background can mean stains are not always evident. Typical indirect searching methods can be time consuming and may result in potentially important bloodstains being missed. Luminol, fluorescein, hydrogen peroxide, ultraviolet light and infrared photography were tested in an effort to find a rapid and efficient blood search tool for direct application to dark surfaces. Methods were compared in their sensitivity, specificity, ability to work on various surface types and their effect on DNA extraction and typing. Along with experimental results, the ease of use, costs and the health and safety considerations were also compared. Hydrogen peroxide was determined to be the most effective method. However, where blood was likely to be dilute, luminol was proposed due its greater sensitivity.     

Politics-as-usual on trial: regional anti-corruption campaigns in Indonesia

Abstract

This article explores to what extent to local pro-reform actors matter in Indonesia through the prism of anti-corruption campaigns in the country's regions. I argue that the rash of anti-corruption campaigns and related trials involving legislative members, especially from mid-2004 onward, can be attributed neither to the resources lavished on anti-corruption organizations based in Jakarta, nor to the popularity of President Yudhoyono's anti-corruption rhetoric. Instead, it can be traced to a particular anti-corruption campaign that began in earnest in 2002 in Padang, West Sumatra. Using a multi-dimensional approach, a small group of activists relentlessly pursued their newly elected provincial legislators to be accountable to their democratic mandates and as important, to respect the rule of law pursuant to new national anti-corruption legislation. The guilty verdicts of May 2004 galvanized similar groups across the country to investigate their respective legislative bodies. This exemplary case of societal accountability also demonstrated the leverage activists can gain over local politicians when they forge coalitions with other elite actors, especially those in Jakarta. I further explore two anti-corruption cases in the province of West Kalimantan to place post-Padang developments in their proper perspective. If hopes were raised that regional anti-corruption movements–based on the Padang model–might accomplish more than sensational trials but help consolidate democracy at the regional level by holding elected officials accountable, these two examples show how fleeting these expectations might be. The trials that took place but which produced no convictions resulted from the fallout of local political tussles, and not from local civil society organizations galvanized by the ideals of transparency and good governance.     

Book reviews

Deane Curtin, Chinnagounders’ Challenge: The Question of Ecological Citizenship. Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1999.

Jim Yong Kim, et ah, ed., Dying For Growth: Global Inequality and the Health of the Poor. Monroe, ME: Common Courage Press, 2000.

Lester R. Brown, Christopher Flavin, Hilary French, et al., eds., State of the World 1998. New York: W.W. Norton and Company, 1998.

Margit Mayer and John Ely, eds., The German Greens. Paradox Between Movement and Party. Translated by Michael Schatzschneider. Philadelphia: Temple University Press, 1998.     

Oxytocin and the Biological Basis for Interpersonal and Political Trust

Political scientists have documented the many ways in which trust influences attitudes and behaviors that are important for the legitimacy and stability of democratic political systems. They have also explored the social, economic, and political factors that tend to increase levels of trust in others, in political figures, and in government. Neuroeconomic studies have shown that the neuroactive hormone oxytocin, a peptide that plays a key role in social attachment and affiliation in non-human mammals, is associated with trust and reciprocity in humans (e.g., Kosfeld et al., Nature 435:673–676, 2005; Zak et al., Horm Beh 48:522–527, 2005). While oxytocin has been linked to indicators of interpersonal trust, we do not know if it extends to trust in government actors and institutions. In order to explore these relationships, we conducted an experiment in which subjects were randomly assigned to receive a placebo or 40 IU of oxytocin administered intranasally. We show that manipulating oxytocin increases individuals’ interpersonal trust. It also has effects on trust in political figures and in government, though only for certain partisan groups and for those low in levels of interpersonal trust.     

Religion,Secularization and Democracy in the Mediterranean Region: Problems and Prospects

Political debates in many Mediterranean countries today are increasingly framed in dichotomous terms, highlighting divisions between religious and secular worldviews. In some countries, for example Israel, the issue is so contentious that it is described as a ‘culture war’. While Israel struggles to balance its commitment to a Jewish state and a democracy, it does not seem to matter if the countries in question are democracies or non-democracies, or what their majority religious faith is. Instead, the role of religion in public life or, put another way, the ‘public return of religion’, is a pertinent and controversial political question everywhere in the Mediterranean region. How do we explain this phenomenon? On the one hand, we can point to both economic and demographic changes, while, on the other, we can trace the impact of continuing secularisation. Together these two sets of developments produce new challenges to existing political arrangements.