How to Cautiously Uncover the “Black Box” of Machine Learning Models for Legislative Scholars

Machine learning models, especially ensemble and tree-based approaches, offer great promise to legislative scholars. However, they are heavily underutilized outside of narrow applications to text and networks. We believe this is because they are difficult to interpret: while the models are extremely flexible, they have been criticized as “black box” techniques due to their difficulty in visualizing the effect of predictors on the outcome of interest. In order to make these models more useful for legislative scholars, we introduce a framework integrating machine learning models with traditional parametric approaches. We then review three interpretative plotting strategies that scholars can use to bring a substantive interpretation to their machine learning models. For each, we explain the plotting strategy, when to use it, and how to interpret it. We then put these plots in action by revisiting two recent articles from Legislative Studies Quarterly.     

When Heads Roll: Assessing the Effectiveness of Leadership Decapitation

Leadership targeting has become a key feature of current counterterrorism policies. Both academics and policy makers have argued that the removal of leaders is an effective strategy in combating terrorism. However, leadership decapitation is not always successful, and existing empirical work is insufficient to account for this variability. As a result, this project answers three primary questions: (1) Under what conditions does leadership decapitation result in the dissolution of a terrorist organization?; (2) Does leadership decapitation increase the likelihood of organizational collapse beyond the baseline rate of collapse for groups over time?; and (3) In cases where decapitation does not result in group collapse, to what extent does it result in organizational degradation and hinder a group's ability to carry about terrorist attacks? I develop a dataset of 298 incidents of leadership targeting from 1945–2004 in order to determine whether and when decapitation is effective. First, I identify the conditions under which decapitation has been successful in bringing about organizational decline. The data show that a group's age, size, and type are critical in identifying when decapitation will cause the cessation of terrorist activity. As an organization grows in size and age, it is much more likely to withstand the removal of its leadership. Organizational type is also significant in understanding the susceptibility of an organization to decapitation. Ideological organizations are most likely to experience a cessation of activity following the removal of leader, while religious organizations are highly resistant to leadership decapitation. Second, I determine whether decapitation is an effective counterterrorism strategy that results in organizational collapse. The data show that decapitation does not increase the likelihood of organizational collapse beyond a baseline rate of collapse for groups over time. Organizations that have not had their leaders removed are more likely to fall apart than those that have undergone a loss of leadership. The marginal utility of decapitation is negative for many groups, particularly for larger, older, religious, and separatist organizations. Finally, I look at the extent to which decapitation results in organizational degradation and hinders a group's ability to carry about terrorist attacks. Case studies illustrate whether decapitation has an effect on the operational capacity of an organization by identifying whether the removal of key leaders changes the number and lethality of attacks. If certain organizations are more resilient than others, it is important to know when decapitation should be effective and when it could lead to counterproductive outcomes. Overall, these findings illustrate the need to develop a new model for evaluating the efficacy of leadership decapitation and for developing effective counterterrorism policies.     

Spatial Patterns of Robbery at Tourism Sites: A Case Study of the Vieux Carré in New Orleans

This paper looks at the connection between spatial patterns of robbery within the framework of routine activities theory. This theoretical perspective sees robbery (and other crimes) as occurring when three factors converge: suitable targets, motivated offenders and guardianship. The Eighth and part of the First Police Districts of New Orleans become target rich environments during periods of time when large numbers of tourists and conventioneers are in the city. The city certainly has the neighborhoods of highly concentrated poverty and disorganization that tend to be criminogenic and produce motivated offenders. The spatial distribution of robbery is hypothesized to be a function of the presence or absence of guardianship. In order to test this hypothesis two types of data are examined: robberies (simple, armed, both successful and attempted) that occurred during the convention and tourism season and patterns of deployment and patrol in these areas. Preliminary results indicate that simple tourist/conventioneer robbery victimizations tend to be concentrated within tourist attraction areas while aggravated tourist/conventioneer robbery is concentrated in places that are primarily residential and where there are no attractions and no concentrated police presence. This is also an area of ingress and egress for people from perimeter neighborhoods of highly concentrated poverty and disorganization.     

Introduction

SUMMARY

Previously homeless women (17) and men (12) were surveyed on their experience as a caregiver to physically challenged senior citizen clients (16 men, 13 women: age M= 64.7, SD = 16.8). Caregivers had training in service delivery and experience before the survey. More satisfaction than stress from providing care was reported by caregivers. Caregiving satisfaction was significantly positively related to global life satisfaction and a sense of personal vulnerability to being disabled. Caregiving stress was significantly negatively related to perceived knowledge of the disability. Overall, these previously homeless caregivers reported that providing care to the disabled was positive, and would be repeated and recommended to Others.     

Complaints against higher education establishments – an evaluation of recent reform

As a result of the Higher Education Act 2004, the Office of the Independent Adjudicator (OIA) was established to deal with student complaints against universities. This reform was essential for various reasons including human rights legislation compliance and disparity between universities established by royal charter and post-1992 universities (former polytechnics). However, it is arguable that the new system is ill conceived and not performing the required function. As we are all obliged to ensure students are receiving the required pastoral care, this issue has significant and potentially far reaching impact on our practice.     

Restraint in order to feed: justifying a lawful policy for the UK

In the UK, restraining medical patients in order to provide care is widely considered to be outmoded and difficult to justify. The prevailing clinical intuition that restraining patients is generally wrong (even when restraint is essential in order to provide artificial nutrition and hydration) has prompted us to develop a policy that is compatible with common law, the Mental Capacity Act 2005 and the Human Rights Act 1998. The nature and scope of the problem are illustrated with clinical cases. These, in turn, serve to demonstrate the tension that arises between article 2, article 3 and article 8 rights, when incompetent patients are restrained in order to feed.     

Governmental Efforts on Homeland Security and Crime: Public Views and Opinions

This paper examines views of the respondents regarding homeland security and traditional crime in the United States. Using questions from the 2007 Penn State Poll, a sample of 862 Pennsylvanians participated through a telephone interview. Participants were questioned about their concerns regarding the effectiveness of homeland security, their fear of crime (white-collar, property, violent and terrorist attacks). The results revealed that citizens were satisfied with the effectiveness of homeland security since the September 11, 2001, attacks. The results indicate that fear of crime is different for demographics, and we were able to show that those that thought homeland security had been effective increased the likelihood of fear of white-collar crime. We were also able to show demographic differences for national spending on crime. In addition, we were able to show that those who believed that homeland security was effective did not believe that national spending was at the proper level for property, violent, or white-collar crime. The implications of these results are discussed.     

The Mask of Neutrality: Judicial Partisan Calculation and Legislative Redistricting

Do judges ruling on redistricting litigation increase electoral competition in congressional races while simultaneously drawing districts favoring their party's congressional candidates? I offer a novel theory of judicial partisan calculation, arguing that judges draw more competitive districts than legislatures or commissions, but that judge‐drawn districts favor the electoral interests of their copartisans. These claims are reconcilable because judges target districts held by contrapartisan legislators to maximize their copartisans’ fortunes. I find that Democratic judges draw competitive districts by adding Democratic voters to Republican‐held House constituencies. Court‐administered redistricting increases competitiveness, ostensibly due to judicial neutrality. This mask of neutrality, however, conceals sophisticated partisan calculation.     

‘It is necessary that the issue be heard to cry or squall within the four [walls]’: Qualifying for Tenancy by the Curtesy of England in the Reign of Edward I

This article considers the test used to determine the presence or absence of life in newborn babies, in relation to a widower’s entitlement to remain in land brought to the marriage by his wife, as tenant by the curtesy of England. To qualify for curtesy, a widower needed to have produced a live and legitimate child, but, since even a short period of life was sufficient, there might be disputes as to whether a child which was now dead had ever been alive. The common law therefore had to develop a way of settling this difficult matter of confirming or denying the presence of life. Several thirteenth-century sources show an emphasis on a sound as an indicator of life. This article considers the use of a sound criterion in this area, arguing that thinking and practice surrounding the appropriate test were more complex, less settled, and more interesting than has been represented in somewhat perfunctory accounts in the work of later lawyers and legal historians. This is significant for the understanding of this area of medieval law, but also has broader implications within legal history and historiography, and for scholars from other fields such as medieval social and medical history.