On the political and fiscal determinants of income redistribution under federalism and democracy: evidence from Germany

Several recent studies suggest that transfers from central to regional governments are motivated by political considerations. In this paper we examine if this is also the case for transfers from regional to central governments in the context of the German fiscal equalization system. We examine the factors that contribute to differences in tax revenues across German states. The evidence indicates that both fiscal incentives and political factors can explain these differences, although in Germany the former are more important. Moreover, accounting for fiscal institutions has important consequences for the empirical assessment of political influences on taxation. Overall we find that the political affiliation of the state governor is an important factor in explaining differences in state tax revenues. Thus, the right-wing party (CDU/CSU) is effective in relaxing the tax burden at the state level. In contrast, partisan alignment between the state government and the federal government loses its importance once fiscal conditions enter the empirical model.     

Yes, Prime Minister: The key to forecasting British elections

We use our “PM and Pendulum” Model to forecast the outcome of the 2010 General election. The vote function of the model, aside from a cyclical dynamic, relies on approval of the prime minister as the sole predictor. We find that PM Approval predicts the vote (and vote intention between elections) more accurately than does Government Approval. Turning to the forecasting of seats, we examine the accuracy of the autoregressive model of the vote-seat translation against the uniform-swing model, which is widely used by pollsters and the media. Testing the alternatives on election data since 1910, our autoregressive vote-seat translation model proves superior to the uniform-swing model.     

Utilization of paw prints for species identification in the Canidae family

In this report, the bodies of six skinned animals were submitted to the Oklahoma Animal Disease Diagnostic Laboratory for necropsy examination as authorities were concerned these animals were domestic dogs. Given the condition of the animals, identification of the animal species could not be based on traditional physical characteristics such as size, fur characteristics, and ear characteristics. The paw prints from these animals were characterized based on size, heel pad architecture, and claw characteristics. The length of the forepaws measured 3-3.25 in., four toes were observed and only the claws of digits 3 and 4 were identified, and the heel pad had a pronounced three-lobed rear margin. The rear margin of the heel pad of the hind foot was of circular shape with two slightly forward-pointing crescents laterally. Based on the features of the paw print it was determined that the animals necropsied were coyotes.     

The Effect of Gender of Perpetrator and Victim on Perceptions of Psychological and Physical Intimate Partner Aggression

Most studies of third-party perceptions of intimate partner violence focus on heterosexual relationships and report that male-to-female aggression is perceived more negatively than female-to-male. Since gender of aggressor and gender of victim are consistently confounded in these portrayals, it is not clear whether the gender of the aggressor or the gender of the victim accounts for the effect. The present research manipulated gender of perpetrator and victim to unravel this confound. Two hundred and fifty one participants (166 females) read scenarios involving psychological or physical aggression between two males, two females, or a male and a female. Participants reported their perceptions of the encounter and the character and emotional reactions of the individual couple members. Physical aggression was evaluated more negatively than psychological aggression. Participants evaluated the encounter and the perpetrator and victim in a manner consistent with stereotypical gender roles, revealing more concern for female than male victims and greater denigration of male than female perpetrators. These results have implications for programs aimed at the reduction of intimate partner violence and the services and programs developed for perpetrators and victims.     

King Faisal ibn Abdul Aziz Al Saud in the arena of world politics: a glimpse from Washington, 1950 to 1971

This paper aims to draw a portrait of King Faisal, as it emerges from the records of the various presidential administrations of the USA. The records which were available to me usually originate from the encounters of the heads of state and their ministers on the occasion of official visits. Despite ceremonial protocol and diplomatic courteousness, the encounters always also had a personal touch of character and emotion. Therefore we do not simply look at the portrait through an American mirror. No doubt, the documents at hand do contain specific perceptions of King Faisal and of Saudi society by the various administrations in Washington. On the other hand, the mere fact of the King's physical presence and verbal performance in those encounters brings authenticity to the fore. Because of the fairly wide range of topics on the political agenda of such state visits, the portrait sheds light on King Faisal's personality, public appearance and sense of humour, on his statesmanship as well as on his diplomacy and commitments in the arena of Middle Eastern politics and of international relations at large. Since it seems to me that the year 1966 is of particular significance for an assessment of King Faisal's political legacy in the Middle Eastern arena, I have depicted his visit in Washington and meeting with President L.B. Johnson in June of that year for a more comprehensive treatment. In contrast, Faisal's personal encounters with Harry S. Truman, Dwight D. Eisenhower, John F. Kennedy and later on—twice—with Richard Nixon are dealt with more cursorily.1 The sources for this paper were not really collected in any systematic fashion. Rather, they came my way in the course of a research project with a different, although related topic (see Helmut Mejcher, Sinai, 5 giugno 1967. Il conflitto arabo‐israeliano (Bologna: Società editrice il Mulino, 2000). On the other hand, it is not a random collection either. As I said before, the documents focus on the diplomatic highlights of official visits of the King and Crown Prince in Washington. View all notes     

Dog saliva transmitted pathogens as etiology of fatal infections (on the topic of causal relationship)

The authors report on 4 deaths. 3 of the victims had been bitten by dogs shortly before death; in one case the victim had close contacts with a dog. In 3 of the cases death was caused by septicemia; microorganisms occurring in the saliva of dogs, but rarely causing infection could be determined in 2 of the cases. While in case 1 there was no bite injury so that transmission must have occurred by droplet infection (without trauma) or via a discrete skin lesion, case 2 showed a penetrating dog-bite injury; in both cases the spleen had been surgically removed some years before. In case 3 a causal relationship had to be assumed between a dog bite and death, although no pathogen could be identified in microbiological tests. In case 4 death was not attributable to the dog-bite injury suffered, but was due to an internal pathological cause.     

Tongue bite injuries--a diagnostic criterium for death in epileptic seizure?

Bite marks of the tongue are often associated with epileptic seizures, although information about the real frequency of bite marks of the tongue is hard to find. This is also true for their presence in deaths of epileptics or in deaths in general. The purpose of this investigation was to analyze the frequency of bite marks of the tongue in deaths of epileptics in comparison to a control group. Further points of interest were the spectrum of the causes of death recorded, toxicological data as well as the presence and localization of external head injuries. The study group consisted of 105 individuals with a known history of epilepsy, the control group of 107 individuals with sudden cardiac death. Autopsy reports were analyzed retrospectively. In the first group bite marks of the tongue were seen in 21% (in the subgroup "observed death during seizure" even in 64%) and were thus significantly more frequent than in the control group (2%). In 35 cases of the study material an unnatural manner of death was found (trauma, especially craniocerebral trauma, drowning, asphyxia, intoxication) and in 70 cases a natural death was assumed. However, in 41 of these the exact cause of death was not ascertainable. According to the SUDEP criteria (Ficker 2000, Nilsson 1999) 29 of these cases could be categorized as possible or probable SUDEP (sudden unexpected death in epilepsy) with 17 showing bite marks of the tongue. The fact that half of the remaining 12 cases showed bite marks of the tongue suggests at least for these cases that death occurred during the seizure. Head injuries were reported in 41% of the epilepsy group--in the subgroup "observed death during seizure" in 73%. Our investigation did not produce evidence for a higher frequency of bite marks of the tongue in cases in which resuscitation had been attempted. In our experience the presence of fresh bite marks of the tongue--according to histological findings--is a useful signs for the assignment of death to an epileptic seizure and especially for death during acute convulsion.     

Development,patterns and causes of violence against foreigners in Germany: Social and biographical characteristics of perpetrators and the process of escalation

Acts of violence against foreigners have increased dramatically since 1991 in Germany. The author underlines the wave‐like process of escalation and tries to identify triggering and amplifying factors (police reaction, political deficits, public opinion). He analyses police data concerning biographical and socio‐demographic characteristics of the perpetrators and discusses some of the prominent scientific interpretations (disintegration, individualisation, right‐wing activities) concerning the recent waves of right‐wing and xenophobic violence in Germany.     

FROM DEBRIS FIELD TO ECONOMIC POWERHOUSE

<正>The CPC offers an example in governing the economy The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)will take place on October 18.A communiqué,issued after the Sixth Plenary Session of the 18th CPC Central Committee in October last year,states that the 19th CPC National Congress constitutes a crucial event in the political life of the Party and the state.