Measuring and managing ‘state fragility’: the production of statistics by the World Bank,Timor-Leste and the g7+

Indicators are currently being widely used in international policy making to substantiate analyses and justify decisions on the basis of their alleged scientific objectivity. This article analyses the role of indicators and statistics in the labelling and managing of ‘fragile states’, examining the powerful consequences of these classifications but also discussing the untraceable nature of numbers and the difficulties in attributing ownership of numerical claims and assigning responsibility for their many unforeseen impacts. Focusing on the education sector in Timor-Leste and on the World Bank’s Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (cpia) programme, the article shows how accountability and ownership are negotiated within the context of the g7+ group of self-labelled ‘fragile states’, encouraging an examination of the power relations involved.     

Improved Area of Origin Estimation for Bloodstain Pattern Analysis Using 3D Scanning

An important component of crime scene reconstruction is bloodstain pattern analysis (BPA). Where BPA concerns impact patterns, estimating the area of origin is critical information for scene reconstruction. Traditionally, this is achieved by measuring individual bloodstains and performing trigonometric calculations; however, 3D scanning has been proposed as a viable alternative for overcoming logistical and practical concerns with the manual method. Therefore, this project aimed to establish whether the FARO Focus 3D scanner and FARO Zone 3D software can improve the accuracy of area of origin estimates relative to the manual method. We created a series of eight bloodstain impact patterns and performed paired analysis using the two methods to estimate areas of origin for each pattern. Our data suggested that FARO-derived estimates were generally more accurate than using the manual method. FARO-estimated heights of origin areas were generally closer to the true distance. Both methods underestimated the distance from the wall for most patterns originating 150mm or greater from the wall, but overestimated distances for patterns originating closer to the wall. The degree to which distances were underestimated increased significantly the further the blood source was from the wall and was greater for FARO-derived estimates. The results of this research contribute to the validation of these instruments for operational implementation for BPA and should be considered alongside the practical benefits of 3D scanning relative to manual methods. Further, 3D scanning can provide reliable BPA reconstruction documentation for technical review and court presentation.     

Procedural justice,obligation to obey,and cooperation with police in a sample of Jamaican citizens

ABSTRACT

Procedural justice theory plays a central role in understanding police–citizen relationships. To test the universality of procedural justice theory, researchers have tended to assess the relative impacts of normative and instrumental models of policing in different geopolitical contexts. Building on Reisig and Lloyd’s study in Jamaica, we test in the current study the relative impacts of procedural justice (a normative factor) and police effectiveness and risk of sanctioning (instrumental factors) on Jamaicans’ obligation to obey the police and willingness to cooperate with police. We found that procedural justice predicted both obligation to obey and cooperation, although obligation did not predict cooperation. And while effectiveness predicted obligation, it was not significantly related to cooperation. Lastly, older citizens were more willing to cooperate with police. The study’s implications for policy and future research are discussed.     

Two Contrasting Constituencies in the Heart of England

This article compares two parliamentary constituencies in Warwickshire: one which might be expected to be Conservative but is held by Labour, and the other, a Labour seat for over fifty years, but now held by the Conservatives. Constituency level analyses permit a more fine-grained analysis of electoral trends, taking account of demographic factors otherwise being overlooked. Labour needs to be able to appeal to the aspirational voters moving into Nuneaton.     

Gender differences in European volunteer rates

The main goal of this research is to identify the reasons for gender differences in European volunteer rates in different types of voluntary organisations. To that end, we focus in volunteer rates at individual and national levels. We have drawn our data from the European Values Survey (EVS, 1999 and 2008). We have employed Logit models carrying out independent estimations for the individual likelihood of working as a volunteer for four categories: social awareness, professional, education and social justice. We have carried out independent estimations and we have also repeated estimations by gender subsamples. Our main result is that social factors might be even more relevant for decisions to volunteer than individual socio-economic factors. Specifying the peer group as much as possible allows better control of social variables. For example, studying the female volunteer rate is more relevant to control for the female national NGO membership rate than the total national rate. We also highlight important gender differences. For example, education is positively correlated with decisions to volunteer for both genders in all categories, but the educational effect is stronger for men in relation to professional activities and stronger for women in relation to social awareness and social justice activities.     

Evaluating local government performance in times of crisis

In recent years, Spanish local governments have come under increasing pressure to accommodate severe economic restrictions while maintaining their provision of local public services. We analyse overall cost efficiency in Spanish local governments during the period of the economic crisis (2008–2013), under four different non-parametric methodologies. Moreover, given how problematic it is to precisely define what municipalities do, we compare three different output models with various measures of quantity as well as quality. Results suggest that Spanish local government efficiency improved over the period 2008–2013 since budget expenditures (inputs) fell while local public services and facilities (outputs) were maintained. We also find evidence of the possible implications of service quality when measuring municipalities’ efficiency, and of structural differences in the average efficiency between municipalities located in different Spanish regions. Finally, our results confirm that the level and variation of efficiency scores are affected by the approach taken.