Backing Out or Backing In? Commitment and Consistency in Audience Costs Theory

Audience costs theory posits that domestic publics punish leaders for making an external threat and then backing down. One key mechanism driving this punishment involves the value the public places on consistency between their leaders’ statements and actions. If true, this mechanism should operate not only when leaders fail to implement threats, but also when they fail to honor promises to stay out of a conflict. We use a survey experiment to examine domestic responses to the president's decision to “back down” from public threats and “back into” foreign conflicts. We find the president loses support in both cases, but suffers more for “backing out” than “backing in.” These differential consequences are partially explained by asymmetries in the public's treatment of new information. Our findings strongly suggest that concerns over consistency undergird audience costs theory and that punishment for inconsistency will be incurred, regardless of the leader's initial policy course.     

Approaches to Reduce Conflict when Insuring the Environmental Cleanup of Closed Military Bases Intended for Redevelopment

Base Realignment and Closure (“BRAC”) of military bases has occurred in waves over the last few decades. Many of these properties were operational through World War I, World War II, the Korean War, the Vietnam conflict, and into the modern Cold War. As part of the United States military's transfer of these properties to the local municipalities, which includes significant funds to cleanup remaining chemicals of concern, contract terms of the transfer typically require insurance policies that have the intention of mitigating the risk of additional future cleanup costs. As a result, numerous BRAC sites have established contracts with environmental consultants who have provided guaranteed fixed price contracts for cleanup of the site. To mitigate additional future cleanup costs, the environmental contractor is required to purchase a stop loss or cost cap insurance policy for their guaranteed fixed price contract to share the risk that there will be cost overruns in the cleanup of the known pollution. The redeveloper is required to purchase Premises Pollution or Environmental Liability insurance to share the risk that any newly discovered contamination will not result in additional cleanup costs for the redeveloper. This paper will discuss some of the recent lessons learned regarding (1) the terms of the initial cleanup transfer agreement, (2) efforts for project scoping/set-up, and (3) subsequent implementation dynamics of the relationships between the US Military, local municipality, redeveloper, and environmental contractor.     

The myth of my widow: A dramatistic analysis of news portrayals of a terrorist victim

Mythic aspects of news portrayals of a terrorist victim are the focus of this study. Using the dramatistic approach of Kenneth Burke, the study reviews New York Times coverage of Leon Klinghoffer, who was killed by terrorists aboard the Achille Lauro cruise ship in October 1985.

Myth is defined not as a false or incredible tale, but as a symbolic narrative that attempts to explain and give meaning to practice and belief. The study shows that news reports used dramatic details of the suffering and grief of the widow to develop around her husband a compelling myth—the sacrifice of the innocent, heroic victim.

In dramatic and psychological terms, the victim is a symbol of the self. Through this myth, then, the news reports appear to invite intense identification of the reader with the terrorist victim.

Although the study is exploratory, implications can be considered. Mythic portrayals suggest that the power of terrorism may stem from its ability to forge symbolic links between victims and individual members of an audience. Mythic images in the news may help terrorists communicate with their audience. Too, public policy makers may attempt to arouse support for measures of prevention and reprisal by drawing from the mythic power of the victim.     

Barnard and morality in organizations

Since Chester I. Barnard wrote The Functions of the Executive in 1938 numerous authors have cited his many ideas about organizational and individual behavior. Barnard believed that an individual's willingness to cooperate and function within an organization related to his or her “zone of indifference,” and the amount of authority the individual was willing to grant to a superior. Barnard's ideas concerning the zone of indifference are related in this article to “Stages of Moral Development” as measured by protocols developed by Lawrence Kohlberg.     

The Origins of Conflict in Polycentric Governance Systems

Natural resources are governed by polycentric systems, which can be conceptualized as an “ecology of games” in which policy actors participate in multiple policy forums governing interdependent issues. This article analyzes why actors perceive different payoffs across the forums in which they participate, ranging from mutually beneficial games of cooperation to conflictual zero-sum games in which one actor's gain means another actor's loss. The authors develop hypotheses at the level of the individual, the forum, and the overall polycentric system and test them using survey data collected in three research sites: Tampa Bay, Florida; the Paraná River delta, Argentina; and the Sacramento–San Joaquin River delta, California. The empirical findings suggest that levels of conflict in policy forums are higher when the actors who participate in them are concerned with hot-button issues, when the forums have large and diverse memberships, and in systems with a long history of conflict. The results shed new light on the drivers of conflict and cooperation in complex governance systems and suggest ways to manage conflict.