Turnout as a Habit

It is conventional to speak of voting as “habitual.” But what does this mean? In psychology, habits are cognitive associations between repeated responses and stable features of the performance context. Thus, “turnout habit” is best measured by an index of repeated behavior and a consistent performance setting. Once habit associations form, the response can be cued even in the absence of supporting beliefs and motivations. Therefore, variables that form part of the standard cognitive-based accounts of turnout should be more weakly related to turnout among those with a strong habit. We draw evidence from a large array of ANES surveys to test these hypotheses and find strong support.     

The weakness of the strong: re-examining power in transboundary water dynamics

This article proposes a re-examination of how power is conceptualized within transboundary hydropolitics by arguing that power has been misrepresented in the water resources literature. Overemphasis on the factors of a country’s relative power, riparian position, and technological potential to exploit the resource has led to assumptions that the non-hegemon(s) is often unable to achieve their own positive outcomes and that the outcomes of interactions between hegemons and non-hegemons are predictable and detrimental. However, it appears that there are many examples that run counter to the power narrative that employs these factors. This study argues that this overemphasis neglects hegemonic vulnerabilities, which, when included with hegemonic capacities, are much more instructive in explaining transboundary water dynamics. The sources of the weakness of the strong of the alleged hegemon originates from several sources, including interlinkages between water and non-water issues, internal and external expectations, and consideration of whether the water-related issue at hand is crucial to each party’s survival or whether the party has the luxury to survive the outcome of the resolution. These factors allow for non-hegemons to achieve more favorable outcomes and, when incorporated in analysis, provide a fuller picture of the true power balance in each transboundary water interaction. We therefore call for a reconceptualization of power dynamics in transboundary waters that accounts for structural weaknesses present within all parties.     

Horse‐race Journalism and pollsters' performance in Israel

Abstract

This paper examines the interaction between the horse‐race attitude of the press in covering election campaigns and pollsters’ performance in Israel. Attempting to provide highly processed and more exciting reports, the press encourages pollsters to switch from relatively conservative approaches to projecting election results, into more daring ones, prone to situational errors. Moreover, criticizing such errors when they occur, the press focuses mainly on those errors consistent with its horse‐race orientation. Professional and political implications of the press's orientation and pollsters’ performance are discussed.     

The Effects of Continuous Application of the TASER X26 Waveform on Sus scrofa,

This study investigated and evaluated the safety margins of the continuous long duration (up to 30 min) effect of the TASER X26 waveform, using a Sus scrofa model. Long duration continuous stimulus has not been evaluated on humans or human surrogates prior to this study. Swine were used as models due to similarities with humans in their skin and cardiovascular systems. Very long duration was used to determine both exposure dose and possible adverse physiological effects of dose. The trial began with an application of 10 min, and subsequent animals received increasing exposure time up to a survived maximum duration of 30 min. At the onset of this work, it was hypothesized that there would be a time limit after which most animals would not survive consistent with increased dose response. However, this hypothesis was not supported by the experimental results. All animals (10 of 10) survived up to 3 min. Seven of the 10 animals survived up to a 10‐min exposure and 3 of 5 animals with a 30‐min target exposure survived the full exposure. Surviving animals were recovered and observed for 24 h, with no postrecovery deaths. This suggests that swine (based on physiology) will not experience a fatal event when exposed to the TASER X26 for a continuous 3 min. Conclusions regarding longer duration (10–30 min) are not as certain due to the small sample sizes at these time intervals.     

Book reviews

Lena Jonson, The Tajik War: A Challenge to Russian Policy (Discussion Paper No. 74) London: Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1998. Pp.54, no index. NP. ISBN 1‐ 86203–061–8.

Charles‐Philippe David and Jacques Lévesque (eds.), The Future of NATO: Enlargement, Russia and European Security. Montreal: McGill‐Queen ‘s University Press, 1999. Pp.xii + 261, incl. notes, no index. Cdn $65 (cloth); Cdn $22.95 (paper). ISBN 0–7735–1850–9 and 1872‐X (paper).

Emanuel Adler and Michael Barnett (eds.), Security Communities. New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998. Pp.xiii + 462, index. $69.95 (cloth); $24.95 (paper). ISBN 0–521–63953–0 and ‐63051–7.

A.S. Panarin, Global'noe politicheskoe prognozirovanie v usloviyakh strategicheskoy nestabil'nosti [A Global Political Forecast under Conditions of Strategic Instability]. Moscow: Editorial URSS, 1999, Pp.277. NP. ISBN 5–8360–0027–1.

Nikolai Bindyukov and Petr Lopata, Osobaya tret'ya sila: Novyy politicheskiy fenomen [The Special Third Force: A New Political Phenomenon]. Moscow: ITRK, 1999. Pp.321. NP. ISBN 5–88010–066–9.

A. Podberezkin and V. Makarov, Stategiya dlya budushchego prezidenta Rossii: Russkiy put’ [A Strategy for the Future President of Russia: The Russian Path]. Moscow: Dukhovnoe Nasledie, 2000. Pp.168. 21 Rubles. ISBN 5–86014–106–8.

Nash put’: Strategicheskie perspektivy razvitiya Rossii v XXI veke: Tezisy kontspetual'nogo proekta [Our Path: Strategic Perspectives on the Development of Russia in the 21st Century: The Theses of a Conceptual Project], Moscow: ZAO ‘Russkoe Zoloto (A. P. Tarantsev), 1999. Pp.143. 49 Rubles. ISBN 5–8186–0002–5.     

What Do We Know About Village-Level Change and Stasis in India?

The study documents considerable spatial variation in change and stasis in development outcomes over the decade from 2001 to 2011 (proxied by women’s literacy and child sex ratio) even across villages within the same micro-region (taluk or sub-taluk) and with similar starting points. However, neither decentralization policy / practice nor other forms of public policy has identified village-level factors that mediate the impact of policy. Although extant literature has explored spatial variation, it has not explored such variation across different micro-regions of India, nor has it used methodologies that validate explanatory inference from spatial-longitudinal comparisons. The article notes that the degree of spatial variation in change over such a short period of time is remarkably similar across different micro-regions of the country. It also proposes a tentative methodology for identifying village pairs to produce more rigorous comparative longitudinal analysis of the drivers of development change and stasis.     

Ties That Bind? Effects of Inter‐level Mobility on MP Attitude to Local Government in Two Scandinavian Countries

The aim of this article is to examine to what degree the movement of elected representatives from local to central level affects the outlook of the ones who move ‘upwards’. Two Scandinavian countries – Sweden and Norway – serve as comparative cases. In both countries a high share of members of parliament (MPs) has served as local councillors before being elected to parliament. According to conventional wisdom, this high share of inter‐level mobility would strengthen ties between government tiers. Hence, parliamentarians with local political background are assumed to have greater confidence in the capacities of local government. It turns out that Sweden corresponds to this assumption, while the Norwegian results to some extent contradict the same hypothesis. In the Norwegian case, MPs who previously held office as local councillors are actually more sceptical towards local government than MPs with no experience from local politics. In the last section of the article a number of explanations for the disparate findings are being discussed. For one, it appears to be a higher level of controversy related to local government in Norway than in Sweden. In turn, this accounts for some of the scepticism being expressed by the very MPs who themselves have held local office. Second, greater financial dependency in the Norwegian case creates incentives for strategic action which, in turn, might undermine confidence between levels of government. These are strategies that are harder to conceal vis‐à‐vis MPs who have themselves gained experience from local politics.     

Labor Unions and White Racial Politics

Scholars and political observers point to declining labor unions, on the one hand, and rising white identity politics, on the other, as profound changes in American politics. However, there has been little attention given to the potential feedback between these forces. In this article, we investigate the role of union membership in shaping white racial attitudes. We draw upon research in history and American political development to generate a theory of interracial labor politics, in which union membership reduces racial resentment. Cross‐sectional analyses consistently show that white union members have lower racial resentment and greater support for policies that benefit African Americans. More importantly, our panel analysis suggests that gaining union membership between 2010 and 2016 reduced racial resentment among white workers. The findings highlight the important role of labor unions in mass politics and, more broadly, the importance of organizational membership for political attitudes and behavior.