Experimental Intelligence

This article explores the use and application of experimental methodologies in intelligence analysis. Previous experimental work has much to tell us about how people process information in making judgments. Calibration, and how appropriate levels of confidence might be improved with systematic feedback, is addressed. Training around uncertainty biases is covered. Extant experimental work suggests mechanisms and tests which might be used to better screen potential analysts for personality characteristics that might make them more suited for some tasks over others. The paradigm of experimental manipulation serves as a useful template for exploring alternative conceptualizations of uncertain environments.     

Divide and Pacify

This paper explores the process of Europeanisation of party politics by examining the regulation of political parties by supranational European organisations. Despite the increased relevance of the regulation of the activity, behaviour, organisation and finances of political parties in European democracies, the supranational dimensions of this phenomenon have hitherto received relatively little systematic scholarly attention. This paper adopts an interdisciplinary perspective, combining approaches from the Europeanisation literature with legal theory and party scholarship. For the purpose of this paper, the rulings and regulations of the European Union, the various organs of the Council of Europe, and the European Court of Human Rights are analysed. The paper highlights the horizontal and vertical patterns of norm creation and diffusion and demonstrates that, despite a certain convergence of European standards, conceptions of democracy and corresponding regulatory paradigms have not become so similar as to be virtually indistinguishable from one another.     

The Missing Link: Explaining the Political Mobilisation of Islam in Indonesia

Abstract

Why has an increase in personal piety among Indonesia's Muslims not translated into electoral gains for Islamic political parties? To help explain this conundrum, this article focuses on the role of Indonesia's mass Islamic social organisations, Nahdlatul Ulama (NU) and Muhammadiyah. Using a political economy lens, it argues that control over state resources and the provision of social welfare facilities have helped political parties maintain power over the years and that NU and Muhammadiyah have at times played important mediating roles in this process. Extending this analysis into Indonesia's contemporary politics, it then proposes that since 2004 in particular, the health and education facilities provided by NU and Muhammadiyah are becoming less important to ordinary people in relation to the services provided by the state. It concludes that this trend has weakened the ability of these organisations to channel public support to political parties/candidates and is one reason why Islamic parties have not been able to capitalise on increased religiosity in the social sphere.     

Gender differences in the incidence of rural to urban migration: Evidence from Kenya

This article examines gender differences in the incidence of rural to urban migration in developing countries, particularly those of Sub‐Saharan Africa. The study distinguishes itself from current migration literature by suggesting that the gain in returns to observable attributes, as a result of migration, may differ by gender and could provide an explanation for gender differences in migration. Using data from Kenya, we estimate the urban‐to‐rural wage gap, separately for each gender, and decompose the gap into the components due to urban to rural differences in observable attributes and differences in returns to observable attributes. We find that the portion of the wage gap that is due to the gain in returns to observable attributes is larger for males, suggesting that males receive larger monetary returns as a result of migration and, consequently, have greater incentive to migrate to urban areas.     

Towards a Working Definition and Application of Social Age in International Development Studies

An emerging body of literature in childhood studies addresses the socially constructed nature of age that varies across time and place. However, despite the robustness of existing theory, few practitioners working in development contexts, where children and young people make up a large percentage of the population, consistently distinguish between biological facts of human development and the social meanings ascribed to different stages in the life cycle. Drawing on feminist theory and practical experiences of ‘gender mainstreaming’ in development studies, this article proposes and applies a working definition of ‘social age’ to supplement the prevailing focus on chronological age, embodied in legal definitions of ‘the child’.     

Qiagen's Investigator™ Quantiplex Kit as a Predictor of STR Amplification Success from Low‐Yield DNA Samples,

Qiagen's Investigator? Quantiplex kit, a total human DNA quantitation kit, has a 200‐base pair internal control, fast cycling time, and scorpion molecules containing a covalently linked primer, probe, fluorophore, and quencher. The Investigator? Quantiplex kit was evaluated to investigate a value under which complete short tandem repeat (STR) failure was consistently obtained. Buccal swabs were extracted using the Qiagen QIAamp^® DNA Blood Mini Kit, quantified with the Investigator? Quantiplex kit using a tested half‐volume reaction, amplified with the ABI AmpFlSTR^® Identifiler kit, separated on the 3100Avant Genetic Analyzer, and data analyzed with GeneMapper^® ID v.3.2. While undetected samples were unlikely to produce sufficient data for statistical calculations or CODIS upload (2.00 alleles and 0.82 complete loci on average), data may be useful for exclusionary purposes. Thus, the Investigator? Quantiplex kit may be useful for predicting STR success. These findings are comparable with previously reported data from the Quantifiler? Human kit.     

The transfer of property rights by theft: an economic analysis

This article studies the voluntary transfer of property that had been stolen—a topic almost unexplored in the law and economics literature. The question is whether a buyer of a stolen good should obtain title to the good if he/she has purchased it in good faith. As described in the article different jurisdictions treat this issue differently. The traditional theory suggests that there is a trade-off between the costs of protecting the good and the costs of verifying the ownership. However, as shown, the rule of law concerning this issue significantly affects parties’ incentives. Specifically, it is shown that a rule of law where good faith is irrelevant in determining the issue of property rights Pareto dominates a rule where good faith may protect an innocent buyer. Thus, an owner of an asset will spend more resources on protecting his property and potential buyers will incur higher costs in order to verify the ownership when good faith is decisive for the transfer of property rights.