Predictions put into practice: a quasi-experimental evaluation of Chicago’s predictive policing pilot

Objectives

In 2013, the Chicago Police Department conducted a pilot of a predictive policing program designed to reduce gun violence. The program included development of a Strategic Subjects List (SSL) of people estimated to be at highest risk of gun violence who were then referred to local police commanders for a preventive intervention. The purpose of this study is to identify the impact of the pilot on individual- and city-level gun violence, and to test possible drivers of results.

Methods

The SSL consisted of 426 people estimated to be at highest risk of gun violence. We used ARIMA models to estimate impacts on city-level homicide trends, and propensity score matching to estimate the effects of being placed on the list on five measures related to gun violence. A mediation analysis and interviews with police leadership and COMPSTAT meeting observations help understand what is driving results.

Results

Individuals on the SSL are not more or less likely to become a victim of a homicide or shooting than the comparison group, and this is further supported by city-level analysis. The treated group is more likely to be arrested for a shooting.

Conclusions

It is not clear how the predictions should be used in the field. One potential reason why being placed on the list resulted in an increased chance of being arrested for a shooting is that some officers may have used the list as leads to closing shooting cases. The results provide for a discussion about the future of individual-based predictive policing programs.

     

1‐800‐Skype‐Me

It is increasingly common that children of divorce are geographically separated from one of their parents. This article considers the challenges that arise from that reality by exploring this problem from a variety of perspectives and by providing practical tips to minimize the impact of the distance. A review of the Ontario caselaw and Arizona Guidelines reveal that certain factors are important in the resolution of these disputes, including: the age of the child, mode of transportation between homes, distance, prior contact, and feasibility of virtual access. Court‐ordered access may include remedies that, absent the distance issue, may be considered extreme, including moving to overnight/extended access periods for young children, permitting children to travel unaccompanied, favoring the nonresident parent for holidays and vacation time, allowing children to decrease contact with the nonresident parent, and decreasing or terminating child support. Where distance dictates the in‐person and virtual access schedules, creative solutions are critical to the successful resolution of these cases. Forward thinking family law professionals can meaningfully help parents to achieve better outcomes for children.     

The effectiveness of social skills training (SST) for juvenile delinquents: a meta-analytical review

Journal of Experimental Criminology - To examine the effectiveness of social skills training (SST) for juvenile offenders and for whom and under which conditions SSTs are the most effective....     

Putting More Public in Policy Analysis

A persistent criticism of policy analysis is that it undermines basic democratic institutions and processes by replacing public participation with expert analysis. Many decision makers shun broader participation because of the complexity of an issue or the cost, uncertainty, and delay often associated with public involvement. This article presents a model for the systematic inclusion of public input into relatively complex public policy decisions. It outlines two determinants of success in public participation efforts: the purpose for public involvement and the nature of the issue; furthermore, it applies the model to two issues in recent Utah history that have involved public participation. Using these principles, decision makers should be able to design and implement public participation strategies that both inform the public about substantive policy questions and improve the quality of the final decision.     

Perforation of the superior vena cava during ECMO catheterization in two neonates with congenital diaphragmatic hernia: a cause of accidental death

Congenital diaphragmatic hernia (CDH) is a defect seen in approximately 1 in 3500 live births. A complication of CDH is the herniation of abdominal contents into the chest cavity through the defect, which may prevent normal intrauterine development of the lungs. The resultant pulmonary hypoplasia and pulmonary hypertension causes respiratory distress in the newborn, usually requiring some form of intervention before the defect is surgically corrected (Embryology for Surgeons. Baltimore, MD: Williams & Wilkins; 1994:491-539). Extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, which involves cannulation of the superior vena cava (SVC), is often used to manage these infants. However, the mediastinal shift that often occurs with CDH can cause an abnormal acute angulation of the SVC, which during cannulation can result in trauma and possible perforation of the SVC. We present 2 autopsy cases where the infants accidentally died as a result of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation cannulation.     

Body Disposal Patterns of Sexual Murderers: Implications for Offender Profiling

Offender profiling postulates that crime scene behavior should predict certain offender characteristics. The aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between offender characteristics, situational factors, and body disposal patterns. Sequential logistic regression analysis on a sample of 85 sexual murderers shows that those who were in a relationship at the time of the crime and who present organized psychological characteristics are more likely to move the victim’s body after the homicide. However, when the victim is older and a conflict with the offender occurred prior to the crime, the body is more likely to be left at the crime scene. Implications for offender profiling are discussed in light of the results.

Canine Population Data Generated from a Multiplex STR Kit for Use in Forensic Casework*

Abstract: Canine biological specimens are often part of the physical evidence from crime scenes. Until now, there have been no validated canine‐specific forensic reagent kits available. A multiplex genotyping system, comprising 18 short tandem repeats (STRs) and a sex‐linked zinc finger locus for gender determination, was developed for generating population genetic data assessing the weight of canine forensic DNA profiles. Allele frequencies were estimated for 236 pedigreed and 431 mixed breed dogs residing in the U.S. Average random match probability is 1 in 2 × 10³³ using the regional database and 1 in 4 × 10³⁹ using the breed dataset. Each pedigreed population was genetically distinct and could be differentiated from the mixed breed dog population but genetic variation was not significantly correlated with geographic transition. Results herein support the use of the allele frequency data with the canine STR multiplex for conveying the significance of identity testing for forensic casework, parentage testing, and breed assignments.     

Settlement of refugee women and children following the Second World War: challenges to the family

Abstract

Following the Second World War, refugees that were displaced as a result of conflict became a global concern. Many of these displaced persons were resettled under the auspices of the International Refugee Organization. Large numbers of European displaced persons settled in Australia, with significant numbers living in Queensland. The wartime and migration experiences of refugees have the potential to influence settlement experiences, and for displaced persons who settled in Queensland, these prior experiences continued to resonate within the family throughout the settlement process. Many refugee children became separated from their families, and while some were reunited, the process was lengthy and not without its difficulties. The effect of separation and loss experienced by these families dominated the post-war experience. It presented challenges to mothers, children and families as they negotiated the uncertainty of displacement and the potential for resettlement, and affected their approaches to separation and reunification. The separation and reunification of children and families played a significant role in the settlement process, influencing interactions with Australian organisations and the development of familial and social network connections during settlement. The legacy of conflict and separation continued to resonate within families and influenced perspectives of the ongoing settlement process for child refugees.