Decoding Negotiation Systems in the Middle East and North Africa: A Framework for Analysis

Regional conflicts are becoming increasingly complex due to the involvement of an ever more numerous and interconnected set of actors. Previous research has focused on regional conflict systems and has generated theoretical approaches such as the regional security complex paradigm. However, when complex, multifaceted, seemingly contradictory webs of relationships are spun in a region, new tools are needed to analyze and evaluate them. Drawing on previous regional conflict models, we propose a negotiation-oriented framework of regional conflict analysis that explores the type and intensity of relationships between state and nonstate actors in a conflict system. We offer a seven-step scale of relationships (ranging from ally to active armed opponent) that represents a novel contribution to the methodological efforts to analyze relationships in conflict systems. This framework brings to light the relational imbalance of the MENA region and has the potential to contextualize for negotiators and mediators the complex system of conflicts within, and possibly outside, the region.     

Terrorist Assassinations and Target Selection

This research note examines political institutional changes in the aftermath of terrorist assassinations. Contemporary assassinations are more often a component of wider campaigns of political violence rather than a singular attack on a head of state. The Global Terrorism Database counts 16,831 terrorist assassinations from 1970–2014, indicating significant frequency of these events and includes a wide range of targets from law enforcement officials to foreign diplomats. Utilizing survival analysis, the span of time from a terrorist assassination event to a change in political institutions within states is measured between target types. Outcome differences between target types are identified.     

Using Preferred Applicant Random Assignment (PARA) to Reduce Randomization Bias in Randomized Trials of Discretionary Programs

Randomization bias occurs when the random assignment used to estimate program effects influences the types of individuals that participate in a program. This paper focuses on a form of randomization bias called “applicant inclusion bias,” which can occur in evaluations of discretionary programs that normally choose which of the eligible applicants to serve. If this nonrandom selection process is replaced by a process that randomly assigns eligible applicants to receive the intervention or not, the types of individuals served by the program—and thus its average impact on program participants—could be affected. To estimate the impact of discretionary programs for the individuals that they normally serve, we propose an experimental design called Preferred Applicant Random Assignment (PARA). Prior to random assignment, program staff would identify their “preferred applicants,” those that they would have chosen to serve. All eligible applicants are randomly assigned, but the probability of assignment to the program is set higher for preferred applicants than for the remaining applicants. This paper demonstrates the feasibility of the method, the cost in terms of increased sample size requirements, and the benefit in terms of improved generalizability to the population normally served by the program.     

Transitional Justice, Interdisciplinarity and the State of the 'Field' or 'Non-Field'

¹Transitional justice appears to be an established field ofscholarship connected to a field of practice on how to dealwith past human rights abuses in societies in transition. Theoriginal focus of transitional justice discourse was that humanrights law requires accountability in transitions, rooted inthe discipline of law. Over time, this focus has been expandedto include a much broader range of mechanisms, goals and inquiriesacross a range of disciplines. In order to probe the currentstate of the field, this article argues against the currentconception of transitional justice as a praxis-based interdisciplinaryfield. It suggests that there is a hidden politics to how transitionaljustice has been constructed as an interdisciplinary field thatobscures tensions between the range of practices and goals thatit now incorporates.     

A Method to Interpolate Osteon Volume Designed for Histological Age Estimation Research

Aging adult skeletal material is a crucial component of building the biological profile of unknown skeletal remains, but many macro- and microscopic methods have challenges regarding accuracy, precision, and replicability. This study developed a volumetric method to visualize and quantify histological remodeling events in three dimensions, using a two-dimensional serialized approach that applied circular polarizing microscopy and geographic information systems protocols. This approach was designed as a tool to extend current histological aging methodologies. Three serial transverse sections were obtained from a human femoral midshaft. A total sample size of 6847 complete osteons from the three sections was identified; 1229 osteons connected between all sections. The volume of all connected osteons was interpolated using ArcGIS area calculations and truncated cone geometric functions. Each section was divided into octants, and two random samples of 100 and of 30 connected osteons from each octant were generated. Osteon volume was compared between the octants for each random sample using ANOVA. Results indicated that the medial aspect had relative uniformity in osteon volume, whereas the lateral aspect showed high variability. The anterolateral–lateral octant had significantly smaller osteon volume, whereas the posterior–posterolateral octant had significantly larger osteon volume. Results also indicated that a minimum of 100 osteons is statistically more robust and more representative of normal osteon distribution and volume; the use of 30 osteons is insufficient. This research has demonstrated that osteon volume can be interpolated using spatial geometry and GIS applications and may be a tool to incorporate into adult age-at-death estimation techniques.     

‘Quality’, Cinema and the ‘Superior Woman’ Persona: understanding women’s film criticism in post‐war Britain (1945–59)

Criticism was a particularly buoyant area of film culture in Britain during the post‐war period, a regular feature in newspapers, periodicals, magazines, and BBC radio programmes. What has not been widely recognised is the central role that women played as critics of film at this time, and where their interests differed from those of their male peers. This article recovers the contribution made by women film critics, arguing that middle‐class writers such as C. A. Lejeune and E. Arnot Robertson adopted a form of ‘distanced amusement’ with regard to themes of sentimentality and romance (associated with low‐brow female pleasures). This strategy permitted them to engage with the broader cultures of film‐watching, commenting on subjects such as female crying and character identification, and recognising cinema‐going as a pleasurable activity for women, subjects which male critics did not discuss. These findings expand knowledge about film criticism in the post‐war period and reconfigure received understandings of film culture to account for women’s gendered contribution to the critical field.     

Book reviews

Frontline Diplomacy: The U.S. Foreign Affairs Oral History Collection (Arlington, VA: Association for Diplomatic Studies and Training, 2000). CD-ROM.

Peter Jackson, France and the Nazi Menace: Intelligence and Policy Making, 1933-1939 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2000), xii + 446 pp. £48, ISBN 0-19-820834-0.

R.A.C. Parker, Churchill and Appeasement: Could Churchill have Prevented the Second World War? (Basingstoke: Macmillan, 2000), xi+290 pp. ISBN 0-333-67583-5.

David Carlton, Churchill and the Soviet Union (Manchester and New York: Manchester University Press, 2000). vi +234 pp. £45hb. ISBN 0-7190-4106-6; £11.99 pb. ISBN 0-7190-4107-4.

Jill Edwards, Anglo-American Relations and the Franco Question 1945-1955 (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1999) xviii + 291 pp. ISBN 0-19-822871-6.