The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal

This paper offers new insights on theinteractions between economics and politicsin Portugal. We use two unexplored datasets consisting of monthly polls on voteintentions for the main political partiesin Portugal and responses to a consumersurvey containing a battery of questions oneconomic evaluations. The analysis coversthe interval from 1986 to 2001. We findthat: (1) right-wing governments arepenalized for higher inflation while theleft-wing ones are not, (2) left-winggovernments are more penalized forincreases in the unemployment rate; (3)voters base their evaluations ofincumbents' performances on perceptions ofpast and current economic conditions,rather than on expected future economicoutcomes.     

Court Discretion

All mention of specific types and dimensions of dangerous behavior, given by witnesses in testimony in 414 civil commitment hearings of allegedly dangerous mentally ill adults in one state, was recorded to see how such evidence affects court decision. A positive association between involuntary commitment and evidence of dangerous behavior as defined by appellate courts was found. Commitments increased with movement up a continuum of action and physical harm and with recency and recurrency. Much of the variance in involuntary commitment is explained by court concern with substantive justice.     

Trends in the Study of Public Administration: Empirical and Qualitative Observations from Public Administration Review, 2000–2009

What are the apparent research and methodological trends in PAR’s content over the past decade? From the perspective of the journal’s 70‐year history, with its aim to “mesh” practitioner and academic knowledge creation, topical coverage since 2000 reflects striking continuity, emphasizing many of the “bread and butter” administrative issues such as planning, human resources, budgeting, and public management. A marked increase in coverage is apparent in the application of more sophisticated quantitative statistical methodology, as well as in the number of female authors, while the number of practitioner authors declined sharply. Throughout the first turbulent decade of the twenty‐first century, three intellectual themes stood out: evaluations of New Public Management, connections between practitioners and academicians, and responsiveness to immediate social, economic, and political challenges. Given the constant demand for usable knowledge, scholars seem to have marginalized attention to the historical context and epistemological foundations of the study. The central challenge in the years ahead will be to effectively use research methods in response to the big questions of government and society that defy measurement. Since many [empiricists], especially the younger, do not know very much about epistemology, they tend to be quite dogmatic about the one set of canons that dominate them. —C. Wright Mills, 1959     

Election results and opportunistic policies: A?new?test?of?the?rational political business cycle model

The literature on the rational PBC suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections to increase their chances of reelection. Most tests of this theory look for evidence of pre-election distortions in fiscal policy. We propose a new test that explores the two-way interaction between the magnitude of the opportunistic distortion and the margin of victory. The test is implemented using a large panel of Portuguese municipalities. The results show that opportunism leads to a larger win-margin for the incumbent and that incumbents behave more opportunistically when their win-margin is small. These results are consistent with the theoretical model.     

SUB‐NATIONAL GOVERNMENT CAPITAL SPENDING IN INDONESIA: LEVEL,STRUCTURE, AND FINANCING

Sub‐national government capital spending is important for both public service delivery and economic development. Currently, Indonesian sub‐national public capital spending appears barely sufficient to cover the annual depreciation of its fixed assets. A substantial proportion of local government investment spending goes to create relatively unproductive assets, such as administrative office buildings. Sub‐national governments finance their capital acquisitions out of gross operating budgets and have thus far not used, to any great extent, either borrowed funds or their significant cash reserves for such purposes. Indonesian sub‐nationals need to spend more on capital than they do now and also need to focus that spending on more useful types of infrastructure. The major constraints to increasing capital spending at the sub‐national level are not related to a dearth of finance, but regulatory rigidities in budget preparation and implementation and, most importantly, a lack of capacity to plan, design and implement investment projects. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Distribution of the minutiae in the fingerprints of a sample of the Spanish population

One of the fundamental aspects of the process of identification through fingerprints is the comparison of the minutiae between the fingermark obtained at the scene of the crime and the suspect's corresponding finger. There is no scientific basis in this process that allows the use of numerical standards, such as those kept in different countries, to obtain the identification. The recent mistakes made in the field of dactyloscopy, together with the growing rigor and scrutiny that forensic evidence undergoes in the legislative and scientific areas, have resulted in the need to reconsider some of the basic principles that support this discipline. A probabilistic estimation of the evidential value is especially necessary; therefore, it is indispensable to know and quantify the variability of the features used in the identification process. The sample studied for this research was obtained from 100 Caucasian men and 100 Caucasian women from the Spanish population, which amounts to a total of 2000 fingerprints. The different types of minutiae were located, identified, and quantified visually on the fingerprint, in four sectors, and inside and outside of a circle, whose radius cut, perpendicularly, fifteen ridges starting from the center cut of the axes that defined the sectors. According to the results obtained in this study, through dactyloscopic identification, the weight of the evidence of a minutia, such as the ridge endings, with frequencies between 55% and 65%, according to the area and gender evaluated, cannot be the same as that of a bifurcation or convergence, with frequencies of 13-18% or those of other minutiae that show frequencies lower than 3%. The significant differences found in the topological distribution of the endings, bifurcations, and convergences show the need to take into account, for its demonstrational value, the finger area in which they are evaluated. The significant association observed between the types of minutiae and the different fingers revealed a greater frequency of endings on the thumb and index fingers, and bifurcations and convergences on the middle, ring, and little fingers.     

Small-scale social-environmental enterprises in the green economy: supporting grassroots innovation

To achieve a top-to-bottom growth of the “green economy”, incentives and enablers need to be identified for those micro enterprises working at the grassroots level. A three-year study of 1,300 social and environmental enterprises in developing countries reveals how they are developing new products and services for their communities, using new business models. But their scale-up is hampered by lack of access to research and technology support and gender barriers, as well as challenges with complex partnerships, progress monitoring, and financial viability. A large pool of innovative ideas remains untapped and an opportunity to build a sustainable economy is being missed.