Campaign Persuasion and Nascent Partisanship in Mexico's New Democracy

Despite ample evidence of preelection volatility in vote intentions in new democracies, scholars of comparative politics remain skeptical that campaigns affect election outcomes. Research on the United States provides a theoretical rationale for campaign effects, but shows little of it in practice in presidential elections because candidates’ media investments are about equal and voters’ accumulated political knowledge and partisan attachments make them resistant to persuasive messages. I vary these parameters by examining a new democracy where voters’ weaker partisan attachments and lower levels of political information magnify the effects of candidates’ asymmetric media investments to create large persuasion effects. The findings have implications for the generalizability of campaign effects theory to new democracies, the development of mass partisanship, candidate advertising strategies, and the specific outcome of Mexico's hotly contested 2006 presidential election. Data come primarily from the Mexico 2006 Panel Study.     

Explaining the unpopularity of public funding for congressional elections

This article uses data from the 2008 Cooperative Congressional Election Study to explain weak support for public financing of congressional campaigns. Previous studies lack theory to explain variation in support and use a flawed measure of the dependent variable. We argue that low support reflects a failure resulting from a collective action dilemma. Citizens desire a campaign finance system that weans politicians from private donors, but are unwilling to pay a small amount in taxes to support public financing. In contrast to conventional wisdom, we show that support for public financing is highest among those perceived to benefit the most from the current system. Our results suggest that most Americans would rather not pay for politics, and that reform proposals must avoid incurring transparent costs on individual citizens to pay for reform.     

Condorcet Polling

For a single-winner multi-candidate election, it is broadly accepted that the Condorcet candidate (if one exists) should win. Voting systems do not always elect the Condorcet winner. Public opinion polls are not generally designed to try to identify a Condorcet candidate. They could easily be constructed to do so, however. The resulting process may be called Condorcet polling, for which various designs are presented herein. Information from Condorcet polling may enable some voters, under a plurality or runoff system, to bring about an outcome they prefer by voting strategically for the Condorcet candidate when they would not otherwise do so.     

Accounting for Future Generations: Intergenerational Equity in Australia1

Australian governments have published three intergenerational reports since 2002. In line with a general international trend these reports pointed to a problem said to arise from an ageing population which exposes Australia to the risk of a future major fiscal crisis. In this article we argue that by failing to use a generational accounting framework, the reports privilege the elderly at the expense of young people. Added to this, they fail to engage any discussion of intergenerational equity defined as distributive fairness and justice. In this article we explore the value of various approaches to intergenerational justice, focusing on the Principle of Intergenerational Neutrality derived from Rawls' theory of justice. We argue that this does not work as well from a policy point of view as Sen's freedom‐as‐capabilities approach. We conclude that linking Sen's approach to justice to a generational accounting will enable governments to address future issues of equity.     

Gas chromatography/tandem mass-spectrometry assay for trace amounts of 3'-hydroxystanozolol

3'-Hydroxystanosolol detection in biological fluids at pg levels by gas chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry is described. Gas chromatography/high resolution mass spectrometry results can be confirmed with gas chromatography/tandem mass-spectrometry.     

Lethal paradoxical cerebral vein thrombosis due to suspicious anticoagulant rodenticide intoxication with chlorophacinone

Superwarfarin exposure is a growing health problem, described in many countries. The authors report a case of suspicious chlorophacinone poisoning with a problematic diagnosis. They review the literature and discuss particularities of anticoagulant rodenticide intoxication, as well as the apparent contradiction between anticoagulant intoxication and lethal thrombosis.     

Cocaine profiling for strategic intelligence purposes, a cross-border project between France and Switzerland. Part I. Optimisation and harmonisation of the profiling method

Optimisation and harmonisation of analytical and statistical methodology have been carried out between two forensic laboratories (Lausanne, CH and Lyon, F) in order to provide drug intelligence for cross-border cocaine seizures. The aim was to improve the gas chromatographic analysis of cocaine samples for profiling. Some important validation parameters were tested to verify the developed method and demonstrate its profiling capacity: the selectivity of the method with retention time reproducibility, the choice of a derivatisation agent improving the chromatography (MSTFA, BSA, TMSI and BSTFA+TMCS 1%), the cutting agents influence (matrix effect), the influence of the sample storage conditions and the sample quantity to weigh for analyses. Eight main alkaloids, which represent the sample signature, have been selected: ecgonine methyl ester, ecgonine, tropacocaine, benzoylecgonine, norcocaine, cis- and trans-cinnamoylcocaine and 3,4,5-trimethoxycocaine. Their stability in the solvent used (CHCl(3)/pyridine) was demonstrated. In order to reach the final objective, which is the comparison of samples seized and analyzed in two different laboratories, the harmonisation of the profiling method between the two laboratories had to be ensured and is the subject of ongoing research.     

Different assays for hingamine in the study of biological fluids

The authors present a method of hingamine identification in non-biological substances (tablets, powder, syringes) and biological fluids (blood, urine). Isolation was made with chloroform in pH 10. Identification was conducted with thin-layer chromatography, gas chromatography/mass-spectrometry, high-performance liquid chromatography, spectrophotometry in UV region. The quantity was estimated with spectrophotometry in UV region, high-performance liquid chromatography and high-performance thin-layer chromatography. The results of the three methods are comparable.     

Youth Psychopathy and Criminal Recidivism: A Meta-Analysis of the Psychopathy Checklist Measures

Although narrative reviews have suggested that "youth psychopathy" is a strong predictor of future crime and violence, to date no quantitative summaries of this literature have been conducted. We meta-analyzed recidivism data for the Psychopathy Checklist measures across 21 non-overlapping samples of male and female juvenile offenders. After removing outliers, psychopathy was significantly associated with general and violent recidivism (r (w)'s of .24 and .25, respectively), but negligibly related to sexual recidivism in the few studies examining this low base rate outcome. Even after eliminating outliers, however, considerable heterogeneity was noted among the effects, with some of this variability being explained by the gender and ethnic composition of the samples. Effect sizes for the small number of female samples available for analysis were mostly small and nonsignificant, and psychopathy was a weaker predictor of violent recidivism among more ethnically heterogeneous samples. In relation to predicting both general and violent recidivism, psychopathy performed comparably to an instrument designed specifically to assess risk, the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (Hoge & Andrews, 2002).