Bounding the number of contributors to mixed DNA stains

We derive a simple inequality for the probability of observing a given DNA profile when assuming a fixed number of unknown persons have contributed to the mixed stain. We then show how this inequality can be used to obtain an upper bound for the number of unknown contributors needed to be considered.     

Development assistance: Ruined hopes and great expectations in Africa

This paper highlights the difficulties and complexities of development assistance projects through an analysis of 2 Urban Functions in Rural Development projects conducted by the US Agency for International Development (AID) in Upper Volta and northern Cameroon in 1977-82. The general objectives of the Upper Volta project were to carry out urban function studies, develop a plan for strengthening the contributions of urban centers to rural development, develop a list of investment priorities for facilities and services, and increase the capacities of the Ministry in planning processes and methods. The 2-year project was hindered by a 1-year delay in initiating assistance due to difficulties in locating a contractor. In addition, the contractor and other team members felt there was little justification for studies of spatial organization in a country with so much evident need; rather, they focused on a small rural works program and establishment of effective local government, producing an inconsistency between team activities and the original project agreement. A request by the team to extend the project 1 year beyond its official completion date to compensate for early delays was rejected by USAID. Nonetheless, there was agreement that the project had a small positive impact in Upper Volta. Key lessons from Upper Volta were transferred to the Cameroon project. Although this project was judged to have achieved its objective of preparing a regional plan and of identifying programs for facilities, services, and small-scale enterprises, it was beset by problems of inexperience and technical underqualification of team members, poor communication, inconsistency of USAID guidelines, and methodological confusion. It is suggested that a central challenge for such programs is to create a body of qualified Americans who can work with their local counterparts in meeting the challenges of development. A measure of the success or failure of these projects should be the degree to which learning contributes to improved performance.     

Book reviews

William C. Green and Theodore Karasik (Eds.), Gorbachev and his Generals: The Reform of Soviet Military Doctrine (Westview Press, 1990, 239pp. ISBN 0–8133–7898–2)

Daniel Patrick Moynihan, On the Law of Nations (Harvard University Press, 1990)

Peter J. Stavrakis, Moscow and Greek Communism, 1944–1949. Cornell University Press, Ithaca and London. 1989. ISBN 0–8014–2125–X.

Scalpino, R.A., The Politics of Development: Perspectives on Twentieth‐Century Asia (Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Mass., 1989, pp.131)

Sean M. Lynn‐Jones, Steven E. Miller and Stephen van Evera (Eds.), Soviet Military Policy (MIT Press, 1989. £26.95 [cloth]; £13.50 [paperback]).     

C. Reviews: general

THE HISTORY OF AL‐TABARI. VOL. III: THE CHILDREN OF ISRAEL. Translated by WILLIAM M. BRINNER. Albany, N.Y., SUNY Press, 1991. xii, 194 pp. $44.00 (hb), $14.95 (pb).

THE HISTORY OF AL‐TABARI. VOL. XXXIII: STORM AND STRESS ALONG THE NORTHERN FRONTIERS OF THE ‘ABBASID CALIPHATE. Translated by C.E. BOSWORTH. Albany, N.Y., SUNY Press, 1991. xix, 239 pp. $57.50 (hb), $18.95 (pb).

THE AWAKENING OF PERSIA: THE REIGN OF NASR AL‐DIN SHAH 1848–1896. By A.J. ABRAHAM. USA, Vande Vere Publishing, 1992. 64pp. $18.95.

THE EMERGENCE OF KURDISH NATIONALISM AND THE SHAIKH SAID REBELLION, 1880–1925. By ROBERT OLSON. Austin, University of Texas Press, 1992.

THE ARAB BUREAU: BRITISH POLICY IN THE MIDDLE EAST, 1916–1920. By BRUCE WESTRATE. University Park, PA, Pennsylvania State University Press, 1992. xvi, 240 pp. $35.

DIE TÜRKEI UND ÄGYPTEN IN DER WELTWIRTSCHAFTSKRISE 1929–1933. By CAMILLA DAWLETSCHIN‐LINDER. (Studien zur modernen Geschichte, 40). Stuttgart, Franz Steiner Verlag, 1989. xviii, 187 pp. 20 tables, 6 diagrams. DM 68‐.

EGYPT FROM INDEPENDENCE TO REVOLUTION, 1919–1952. By SELMA BOTMAN. Syracuse, Syracuse University Press, 1991.

EXPULSION OF THE PALESTINIANS: THE CONCEPT OF ‘TRANSFER’ IN ZIONIST POLITICAL THOUGHT 1882–1948. By NUR MASALHA. Washington, DC, Institute for Palestine Studies, 1992. iii, 235pp. $24.95 (hb), $11.95 (pb).

TRANSITION TO SELF‐GOVERNMENT: PRACTICAL STEPS TOWARD ISRAELI‐PALESTINIAN PEACE. Report of a study group convened by the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, ANN MOSELY LESCH, principal author. Indiana University Press, 1993. 160pp. £22.50 (hb), £9.99 (pb).

GREATER SYRIA: THE HISTORY OF AN AMBITION. By DANIEL PIPES. New York and Oxford, Oxford University Press, 1990. viii, 240pp.

IBN SAUD: FOUNDER OF A KINGDOM. By LESLIE McLOUGHLIN. Basingstoke, Macmillan in association with St Antony's College, Oxford, 1993. 240pp. £40.00.

THE DESPAIRING DEVELOPER: DIARY OF AN AID WORKER IN THE MIDDLE EAST. By TIMOTHY MORRIS. London, Tauris, 1991.

A MODERN CULTURAL HISTORY OF BAHRAIN. By SAMI A. HANNA. Bahrain, National Council for Culture Arts and Literature, 1991. 107pp.

THE ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE GULF WAR. By KAMRAN MOFID. London, Routledge, 1990. xxiv, 177pp.

EARLY ARABIC POETRY: MARATHI AND SU'LUK POEMS, Vol. 1. Edition, translation, and commentary by ALAN JONES. (Oxford Oriental Institute Monographs, 14.) Reading, Ithaca Press, 1992. ix, 270 pp. Map. £25.00.

RELIGION, LEARNING AND SCIENCE IN THE ‘ABBASID PERIOD. Edited by M.J.L. YOUNG, J.D. LATHAM and R.B. SERJEANT. (The Cambridge History of Arabic Literature.) Cambridge, Cambridge University Press, 1991. xxi, 587pp. £ 60.00 (hb).

THREE SHADOW PLAYS. By MUHAMMAD IBN DANIYAL. Edited by PAUL KAHLE. Critical apparatus by DEREK HOPWOOD. Introductory Essay by MUSTAFA BADAWI. (E.J.W. Gibb Memorial, New Series, 32.) Cambridge and Warminster, Gibb Memorial Trust/Aris and Phillips, 1992. 154pp. in Arabic and 30pp. in English. £12.00.

GENRE AND LANGUAGE IN MODERN ARABIC LITERATURE. By SASSON SOMEKH. Wiesbaden, Harrassowittz, 1991.

DER ARABISCHE DIALEKT DER JUDEN VON ‘AQRA UND ARBIL (Semitica Viva, 5.) By OTTO JASTROW. Wiesbaden, Harrassowitz, 1990. 438pp. DM 112.‐

1 For technical reasons, the symbol ‘e’ has been substituted for the ‘inverted e’ of the original throughout this review. [—Ed.]

WADAAN: REINFORCING READING/WRITING/FIRST LEVEL ARABIC COURSE, Vol.4. By DIONISIUS A. AGIUS, and PARWEEN N. ARIF. Leeds, University of Leeds, 1991. 65 pp.

HAYYAN BINA: KITAB AL‐TAMARIN. DRILLS/FIRST LEVEL ARABIC COURSE, Vol.5. By DIONISIUS A. AGIUS. Leeds, University of Leeds, 1991. 111 pp.

MUGHAMARAT ‘AJIBA FI QISAS MUFIDA: THIRD LEVEL ARABIC COURSE BOOK 1. By PARWEEN N. ARIF and DIONISIUS A. AGIUS. Leeds, University of Leeds, 1991. 64 pp.

UNVEILING ISLAM. By ROGER DU PASQUIER. Cambridge, Islamic Texts Society, 1992. viii, 157pp. £6.95.

CULTURAL SCHIZOPHRENIA. By DARYUSH SHAYEGAN. London, Saqi Books, 1992. vii, 188pp.     

Reviews

Susan Gross Solomon (ed.), Beyond Sovietology: Essays in Politics and History. New York and London: M.E. Sharpe, 1993, 254 pp., £38.00.

Alice H. Amsden, Jacek Kochanowicz & Lance Taylor, The Market Meets Its Match. Restructuring the Economics of Eastern Europe. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1994, 250 pp.

Robert E. Ebel, Energy Choices in Russia. Washington, DC: Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1994, xii + 152 pp., $16.95.

Michael Waller, The End of the Communist Power Monopoly. Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1993, viii + 287 pp., £35.00 h/b., £9.99 p/b.

Minxin Pei, From Reform to Revolution: The Demise of Communism in China and the Soviet Union. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1994, 253 pp., £29.95.

William G. Rosenberg & Lewis H. Siegelbaum (eds), Social Dimensions of Soviet Industrialisation. Bloomington and Indianapolis, IN: Indiana University Press, 1993, xix + 296 pp., £12.99 p/b.

Taras Kuzio & Andrew Wilson, Ukraine: Perestroika to Independence. Basingstoke: Macmil‐lan Press, 1994, xiv + 260 pp., £40.00.

Russell F. Farnen (ed.), Nationalism, Ethnicity, and Identity. Cross National and Comparative Perspectives. New Brunswick, NJ, and London: Transaction, 1994, xiv + 538 pp., £49.95.

Edwin Thomas Bacon, The Gulag at War: Stalin's Forced Labour System in the Light of Archives. Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1994, xii + 190 pp.

Robert S. Ross, China, the United States and the Soviet Union: Tripolarity and Policy Making in the Cold War. Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1993, x + 204 pp., £42.00.     

Book reviews

Robert Service, Lenin: A Political Life. Vol. 3: The Iron Ring. Basingstoke and London: Macmillan, 1995, xxi + 393 pp., £45.00.

Stephen Kotkin, Magnetic Mountain: Stalinism as a Civilization. London: University of California Press, 1995, xxv + 639 pp., £45.00.

Yilmaz Akyüz, Detlef Kotte, Andràs Köves & László Szamuely (eds), Privatization in the Transition Process. Recent Experiences in Eastern Europe. Geneva: United Nations, 1994, x + 418 pp.

Jerzy Hausner, Bob Jessop & Klaus Nielsen (eds), Strategic Choice and Path‐dependency in Post‐Socialism. Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, 1995, xiii + 330 pp. £49.95.

Wladimir Andreff (ed.), Le Secteur Public à I'Est. Restmcturation Industrielle et Financière. Paris: L'Harmattan, Collection ‘Pays de I'Est’, 1995, 238 pp.

Jonathan Klavens & Anthony Zamparutti, Foreign Direct Investments and Environment in Central and Eastern Europe: A Survey. Washington DC: The World Bank, 1995. x + 44 pp., $7.95.

Valdas Samonis, Foreign Investment in the East. New York: Nova Science Publishers, Inc., 1995, 77 pp., £22.50.

Taras Kuzio, Ukrainian Security Policy. Washington DC: Praeger, 1995, xiv + 168 pp., £13.50.

Anssi Paasi, Territories, Boundaries and Consciousness: The Changing Geographies of the Finnish‐Russian Border. Chichester: John Wiley, 1996. xxi + 353 pp., £45.00.

Tuomo Polvinen, Imperial Borderland, Bobrikov and the Attempted Russification of Finland, 1898–1904. London: Hurst, 1995, x + 342 pp. £32.50.

Hugh Poulton, Who are the Macedonians? London: Hurst, 1995, xvii + 218 pp., £12.50.

Jacob M. Landau, Pan‐Turkism. From Irredentism to Cooperation. London: Hurst, 1995, viii + 275 pp., £14.95.

Kenneth Lieberthal, Governing China: From Revolution through Reform. New York: W. W. Norton and Company Inc., 1995, xxii + 498 pp., £22.00.

Robert Benewick & Paul Wingrove (eds), China in the 1990s., Basingstoke: Macmillan, 1995, x + 272 pp., £11.99.

A. James Gregor, Marxism, China and Development. New Brunswick: Transaction Books, 1995, xi + 283 pp., £34.95.

David G. Marr, Vietnam 1945: The Quest for Power. Berkeley, Los Angeles, London: University of California Press, 1995, xxviii + 602 pp., $50.00.

Janet W. Salaff, Working Daughters of Hong Kong: Filial Piety or Power in the Family. New York: Columbia University Press, 1995, xxxvi + 317 pp., $17.50.

Irene Bloom (ed.), Knowledge Painfully Acquired. New York: Columbia University Press, 1996, ix + 226 pp., £14.95.

Walter Laqueur, The Dream that Failed: Reflections on the Soviet Union. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1994, ix + 231 pp., £18.99.

David Iosifovich Ortenberg. Stalin, Shcherbakov, Mekhlis, i drugie. Moscow: MP ‘Kodeks’, Ob"edinennaya redaktsiya MVD Rossii, 1995, 208 pp.

Lewis H. Siegelbaum & Ronald Grigor Suny (eds), Making Workers Soviet: Power, Class and Identity. Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 1994, xiii + 399 pp., £41.50 h/b, £16.50 p/b.

Walter S. Dunn, Jr, The Soviet Economy and the Red Army, 1930–1945. Westport, CT: Praeger, 1995, ix + 256 pp., £53.95.

A. J. Heywood & I. D. C. Button, Russian Locomotive Types, The Union Legacy. Malmo: Frank Stenvalls Forlag, 1995, vi + 175 pp. Obtainable in UK from Luddenden Press, 19 Goitside, Booth, Halifax HX2 6SY, £14.45.

George Orwell, Animal Farm. London: Seeker and Warburg 1995, 180 pp.