False positive and false negative rates in self-reported intentions to offend: A replication and extension

Purpose

Studies of criminal decision making commonly rely on college students’ self-reported intentions to commit a hypothetical offense. The current study evaluates the predictive validity of these intentions to offend.

Methods

Undergraduate students (n = 726) read a fictitious but seemingly realistic newspaper article describing an illegal opportunity for acquiring digital music files, and then reported their intentions to act upon the opportunity. Afterward, participants’ real world attempts to follow-through on the opportunity were monitored covertly.

Results

Findings reveal that participants who reported weak intentions to offend typically refrained from the act, resulting in a low false negative rate. However, those who reported strong intentions to offend also typically refrained from the act, thereby resulting in a high false positive rate.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that while participants’ predictions of criminal abstention are generally accurate, their predictions of criminal involvement are more problematic. Such faulty intentions have important implications for research on criminal decision making.     

Prior problem behavior accounts for the racial gap in school suspensions

Purpose

A large body of empirical research finds a significant racial gap in the use of exclusionary school discipline with black students punished at rates disproportionate to whites. Furthermore, no variable or set of variables have yet to account for this discrepancy, inviting speculation that this association is caused by racial bias or racial antipathy. We investigate this link and the possibility that differential behavior may play a role.

Methods

Using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class (ECLS-K), the largest sample of school-aged children in the United States, we first replicate the results of prior studies. We then estimate a second model controlling for prior problem behavior.

Results

Replicating prior studies, we first show a clear racial gap between black and white students in suspensions. However, in subsequent analyses the racial gap in suspensions was completely accounted for by a measure of the prior problem behavior of the student – a finding never before reported in the literature.

Conclusions

These findings highlight the importance of early problem behaviors and suggest that the use of suspensions by teachers and administrators may not have been as racially biased as some scholars have argued.     

Toward a Theory of Terrorism: Human Security as a Determinant of Terrorism

In this article, we investigate the relationship between human rights conditions and terrorist activity. We begin by outlining a theory for the genesis and growth of terrorism and argue that states which deny subsistence rights along with civil and political rights create an environment that is conducive to the development of terrorism. However, we conclude that it is the denial of security rights that is a necessary condition for the creation and growth of terrorism. We then examine the causes of terrorism in Northern Ireland in light of this theory. Specifically, we explore the extent to which human rights abuses contributed to the formation and growth of terrorists within Northern Ireland. We find that limits on the civil and political rights of the Catholic minority in Northern Ireland played a significant role in the genesis of terrorism. More importantly, British abuses of security rights increased the number of Irish citizens who supported and participated in terrorist activity.     

Suggestibility and children with mild learning disabilities: The use of the cognitive interview

Abstract

The aims of this paper were firstly to identify any differences in the level of suggestibility between 20 7–9-year-old children with mild learning disabilities and 20 children with average academic ability using the Gudjonsson Suggestibility Scale 2 (GSS2) and, secondly, to note the impact of the cognitive interview on the response patterns of children with mild learning disabilities.

On the GSS2, average academic ability children recalled significantly more correct details than children with mild learning disabilities. There was no significant difference between the two groups of children on distortions, fabrications, total confabulations or on any of the four measures of suggestibility.

In the second part of the study, 38 children with mild learning disabilities watched a filmed event and then were interviewed using either a standard or a modified version of the cognitive interview. Following this, all participants were asked specific questions, some of which incorporated misleading information. One week later each participant was re-questioned. This time critical questions were included about the truth of the presuppositions introduced in the initial interview session. It was found that the cognitive interview elicited significantly more correct and incorrect details than a standard interview with no significant difference in fabrications. Use of the cognitive interview did not significantly affect susceptibility to subsequent misleading suggestions.     

QUESTIONING SEQUENCES IN CANADIAN POLICE INTERVIEWS: CONSTRUCTING AND CONFIRMING THE COURSE OF EVENTS?

A content analysis of 19 Canadian police interviews with adult witnesses revealed that several of the interviewing strategies used by officers ran counter to the recommendations in the literature. Specifically, interviewers interrupted the witness more than was necessary, rarely employed any cognitive techniques to enhance memory recall and asked far more closed than open-ended questions. Further, in terms of the sequencing of questions, a pattern emerged across interviews that suggested that officers first “help” the witness construct the event and then, through a rapid sequence of “yes/no” questions, seek to confirm the account. We argue that this pattern of questioning may suggest that officers are pursuing an assumed version of events and that exploring interviews from a sequencing perspective may prove beneficial in identifying possible biased versions of events.     

The impact of gender roles on verdicts and sentences in cases of filicide

Although mothers and fathers are equally likely to kill their children, maternal filicide cases tend to draw more media coverage and community outrage. While traditional gender role expectations appear to contribute to the community response that follows a report of filicide – and influence media representations – little is known about the offenders’ treatment in the criminal justice system. Drawing on theorizing within gender studies, this article examines relationships between traditional gender role expectations and court case outcomes in cases of maternal and paternal filicide. Findings indicate that both verdicts and sentences in these cases vary by gender and that, for female offenders, the differential treatment is related to how well they appear to fit traditional gender roles.     

British Pharmaceuticals: a cautionary tale

British pharmaccuticals is generally represented as a successful sector which illustrates the potential of knowledge-intensive, high-valve-added activities. This article presents a revisionist account based on evidence and argument. Pharmaceuticals is a small sector which combines high-value-added and average wages to benefit capital not labour. The knowledge base in the laboratory creates imitative product with marketing then applied to capture social expenditure. When product-market growth slows, the sector restructures defensively without solving its problems.     

Book notes

Jean‐Pierre Cabestan, Le système politique de la Chine Populaire (No. 2863 in the series Que sais‐je) Paris: Presses Universitaires de France, 1994. 127 pp. ISBN 2–13–046516–1.

Frederick C. Teiwes Politics and Purges in China: Rectification and the Decline of Party Norms 1950–1965 Armonk, NY and London: M.E. Sharpe, 1993. 593 pp. $70.00, ISBN 1–56324–226–5. Paperback $27.95, ISBN 1–56324–227–3.

Erroll Hodge Radio Wars: Truth, Propaganda and the Struggle for Radio Australia Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1995. 324 pp. £35.00. ISBN 0–521–47380 2.

Richard A. Baker (ed.) The Anzus States and Their Region: Regional Policies of Australia, New Zealand and the United States Westport CT and London: Praeger, 1994. 228 pp. £51.95. ISBN 0–275–94693–2.