When Choice of Data Matters: Analyses of U.S. Crime Trends, 1973–2012

Objectives

This study uses UCR and NCVS crime data to assess which data source appears to be more valid for analyses of long-term trends in crime. The relationships between UCR and NCVS trends in violence and six factors from prior research are estimated to illustrate the impact of data choice on findings about potential sources of changes in crime over time.

Methods

Crime-specific data from the UCR and NCVS for the period 1973–2012 are compared to each other using a variety of correlational techniques to assess correspondence in the trends, and to UCR homicide data which have been shown to be externally valid in comparison with other mortality records. Log-level trend correlations are used to describe the associations between trends in violence, homicide and the potential explanatory factors.

Results

Although long-term trends in robbery, burglary and motor vehicle theft in the UCR and NCVS are similar, this is not the case for rape, aggravated assault, or a summary measure of serious violence. NCVS trends in serious violence are more highly correlated with homicide data than are UCR trends suggesting that the NCVS is a more valid indicator of long-term trends in violence for crimes other than robbery. This is largely due to differences during the early part of the time series for aggravated assault and rape when the UCR data exhibited consistent increases in the rates in contrast to general declines in the NCVS. Choice of data does affect conclusions about the relationships between hypothesized explanatory factors and serious violence. Most notably, the reported association between trends in levels of gasoline lead exposure and serious violence is likely to be an artifact associated with the reliance on UCR data, as it is not found when NCVS or homicide trend data are used.

Conclusions

The weight of the evidence suggests that NCVS data represent more valid indicators of the trends in rape, aggravated assault and serious violence from 1973 to the mid-1980s. Studies of national trends in serious violence that include the 1973 to mid-1980s period should rely on NCVS and homicide data for analyses of the covariates of violent crime trends.

     

Responses of Police Officers to Cases of Officer Domestic Violence: Effects of Demographic and Professional Factors

Although the perpetration of domestic violence by police officers has received more attention lately, little research has examined the topic. This study investigated common responses of police officers (n = 1108) to officer-perpetrated domestic violence case scenarios and the relationships between officer characteristics and such responses. Common responses included encouraging the victim to file a formal report, assisting in finding help for domestic abuse, and referring the offending officer to an employee assistance program (EAP) or counselor. Arrest was a likely response when officers were asked to imagine they witnessed a victim’s injuries and heard statements about an assault in a case scenario. Supervisors had the most victim-supportive responses, suggesting they may be very good trainers of front-line officers.     

Official incidents of inmate-on-inmate misconduct at a women’s prison: using importation and deprivation theories to compare perpetrators to victims

Importation and deprivation theories have long been used to explain prison misconduct and victimization among male inmates. However, the key variables from these theories have rarely been tested on female inmates. In addition, many of these existing studies use combined samples of males and females, while ignoring female-only samples of prisoners. Using data from official misconduct reports collected from 2007 to 2012 from a large women’s prison in Ohio, the current study sought to compare the characteristics of perpetrators of inmate-on-inmate misconduct to their victims. Findings reveal that variables from both importation (age, race, and current violent offender status) and deprivation (mental health status and prior violent disciplinary reports) theories were significant in predicting perpetrator vs. victim likelihood. Policy implications and suggestions for future research are discussed.     

Suicidal ideation in a United States jail: demographic and psychiatric correlates

Suicidal behavior is a significant problem in United States jails. Suicidal ideation (SI) is an established precursor to suicidal behavior in incarcerated populations. No studies to date have examined the prevalence of SI or its correlates in a mixed-gender U.S. jail sample. The purpose of the present study was to document rates of SI in a mixed-gender jail sample and examine socio-demographic and psychiatric correlates. This study of 511 jail inmates found that approximately 16% of participants reported clinically significant SI upon incarceration. White participants, suicide attempters, and those with a psychiatric diagnosis history endorsed greater SI. Reported SI did not differ by sex and was not correlated with age. Clinically, results indicate that screening for SI in jail samples is necessary to identify high-risk individuals for intervention to prevent suicidal behavior.     

Parenting in Families of Low Socioeconomic Status: A Review with Implications for Child Welfare Practice

Families involved in the child welfare system overwhelmingly draw from low socioeconomic (SES) populations. Impoverished children are placed in foster care at disproportionate rates. Addressing this dynamic requires understanding the adaptations low‐income families make when parenting under adversity so that accurate assessments of their needs occur. This article focuses on two aspects of child welfare practice: the evaluation of parenting capacity and service delivery. It examines, in particular, how well current practices and guidelines, as outlined in the literature, fit with more general research on families and parenting in low‐SES environments and offers suggestions for improving practice.     

Appropriately Using People Merely as a Means

There has been a great deal of philosophical discussion about using people, using people intentionally, using people as a means to some end, and using people merely (or just, or only) as a means to some end. In this paper, I defend the following claim about using people: NOT ALWAYS WRONG: using people—even merely as a means—is not always (prima facie or pro tanto or all-things-considered) morally objectionable. Having defended that claim, I suggest that the following claim is also correct: NO ONE FEATURE: when it is morally objectionable to use people (either as a means or merely as a means), this is for many different kinds of reasons—there is no one wrong-making feature that every morally objectionable using has in common. After discussing these claims, I use them to present and motivate what I call the “precaution” theory of norms against using people. I conclude by considering a few cases from the criminal law context—cases that are naturally described as using people—to assess the moral appropriateness of this kind of use in these cases, and to demonstrate how the theory applies to the real world.     

President Perot or Fundamentals of Voting Theory Illustrated with the 1992 Election

Different voting systems can lead to different election outcomeseven when voter preferences are held constant. Using the 1992 election as anexample, it is shown how the outcome of every positional votesystem can be found. Similarly, every possible cumulative andapproval vote outcome is shown. Multiple vote systems, likeapproval and cumulative voting, have disturbing properties. Usingthe 1992 election as illustration, it is shown how a candidate whowins under every positional vote system, who wins every pairwisevote (i.e. is the Condorcet winner), and who has the most firstplace and least last place votes may nevertheless lose underapproval or cumulative voting. Similarly, it is shown how acandidate who loses under every positional system, who loses everypairwise vote (i.e. is the Condorcet loser), and who has the leastfirst place and most last place votes may nevertheless win underapproval or cumulative voting.     

Mitigating the negative effects of emotional labor: A study of disaster response and recovery workers after the 2010 Haiti earthquake

One of the most pressing governance challenges around the globe is managing disasters and their underlying risk factors. Little is known about effective strategies to minimize burnout and posttraumatic stress disorder among practitioners involved in addressing this challenge, especially in countries that rely mainly on international aid agencies for the delivery of basic services to their citizens. This article draws on the emotional labor literature to identify routes addressing the negative consequences of doing response and recovery work in postdisaster contexts. Based primarily on surveys and interviews with response and recovery workers involved after the 2010 Haiti earthquake, it advances and extends previous emotional labor theory on the mitigating factors of service workers' burnout. It points to the importance of autonomy and training as well as five coping mechanisms: relying on informal support, utilizing humor, leaving work at work, decompressing alone, and rotating job positions.     

The role of ECB communication in guiding markets

Public Choice - Economists and central bankers nowadays believe that forward guidance has become more important in a world in which key interest rates have hit their effective lower bounds (ELB)....