Measuring and Modeling Repeat and Near-Repeat Burglary Effects

We develop a mathematical framework aimed at analyzing repeat and near-repeat effects in crime data. Parsing burglary data from Long Beach, CA according to different counting methods, we determine the probability distribution functions for the time interval τ between repeat offenses. We then compare these observed distributions to theoretically derived distributions in which the repeat effects are due solely to persistent risk heterogeneity. We find that risk heterogeneity alone cannot explain the observed distributions, while a form of event dependence (boosts) can. Using this information, we model repeat victimization as a series of random events, the likelihood of which changes each time an offense occurs. We are able to estimate typical time scales for repeat burglary events in Long Beach by fitting our data to this model. Computer simulations of this model using these observed parameters agree with the empirical data.

Theory Competency for MPA-Educated Practitioners

In this issue, Cynthia McSwain and Orion White, writing under the nom de plume O.C. McSwite, address the issue of theory in MPA education. This is an important aspect of the larger theory–practice question in public administration, especially given the large number of MPA students who are mid-career managers rather than pre-service students. McSwite's position is that theoretical competency does not consist of specific content, such as theories of the budgeting process; rather, it is a frame of mind that helps practitioners "know what kind of situation they are in." While McSwite's path to this conclusion is unique, it is also consistent with the approach taken in Donald Schon's The Reflective Practitioner. Both McSwite and Schon recognize how basic to good practice is this ability to size up situations in a systematic and useful way. As always, readers are invited to comment either directly to the authors or to the associate editor.     

International terrorism as a force of homogenization? A constructivist approach to understanding cross-national threat perceptions and responses

Has the emergence of international jihadist terrorism led to common threat perceptions and responses in Europe? The article argues that the homogenization thesis is based around a misguided functionalist notion of a single ‘optimal response’ to an alleged new and potentially catastrophic kind of threat with uniform consequences for all ‘Western’ countries. Drawing on insights from different bodies of literature, the article elaborates a theoretical framework to understand variations in threat perceptions vis-à-vis international terrorism and enrich the socio-linguistic securitization approach of Barry Buzan, Ole Wæver and Jaap de Wilde (Security: a new framework for analysis, London: Lynne Reinner, 1998). The article then empirically examines the rise and fall of threat perceptions among selected European publics between 2000 and 2008. Threat perceptions did converge in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks, but soon afterward started diverging. The article considers the reasons for this finding as well as the implication for the evolution of counter-terrorist policies in the European Union.     

Adolescents’ Reports of Parental Engagement and Academic Achievement in Immigrant Families

The purpose of this study was to add to the understanding of the effects of perceived parental engagement on adolescents’ academic achievement in immigrant families. Self-report data were collected from 1,245 adolescents in immigrant families from four high schools in Los Angeles County. The sample characteristics follow: 13–16 years old (M = 14.5); 58.9% female, 41.1% male; 57.5% Latino; 40.6% 1st generation youth (i.e., foreign born), 59.4% 2nd generation youth. After controlling for parental educational attainment, parental engagement variables were indirectly related to grades through youths’ academic engagement. Multigroup SEM indicated some differences between genders, generational statuses, and ethnicities (Latinos versus others). Adolescents’ perceptions of monitoring by mothers and fathers were indirectly related to grades through academic engagement. Perceived educational advice by mothers was indirectly related to grades through academic engagement for non-Latinos, boys, and 2nd generation youth. Perceived mothers’ schoolwork help was positively related to adolescents’ academic engagement in all the models (except 2nd generation youth), yet fathers’ schoolwork help was significant only for girls and 2nd generation youth.

德国应对世界经济危机的措施

本文全面分析了德国政府迄今采取的应对当前经济危机的各项举措,包括金融市场稳定措施和两套经济振兴计划。与此同时,本文也简要介绍了欧盟层面的经济振兴计划。作者最后指出,德国所采取的应对危机的经济政策措施带有明显的凯恩斯主义的赤字开支政策的特征,并提出忠告,要避免重蹈六、七十年代凯恩斯主义经济政策的覆辙。     

When the Data Source Writes the Conclusion: Evaluating Agricultural Policies

Statistics describe realities, but they also shape them, since they are used to design or support policies. As such accurate statistics are important. Using the agricultural sector in Rwanda as a case study, we demonstrate that dubious statistics can spread quickly. According to data from the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), yields have increased by 60 per cent since the implementation of large scale agricultural reforms, while other datasets point towards more modest gains. Yet, estimates in line with those of the FAO dominate the official discourse. We suggest that the discrepancies between datasets may be explained by the difficulties of collecting accurate agricultural statistics combined with an incentive to overestimate yields to show that the reforms have worked.