THE FIRST TWO OIL SHOCKS: POLICY RESPONSE AND EFFECTIVENESS

A simultaneous, comparative review of the attempts by different countries and country groupings to react to the economic problems caused by the two oil shocks. of the 1970s can help us evaluate the relative success of those efforts. In general, the world has yet to recover from those shocks, with various combinations of slow growth, high unemployment, high inflation rates, and substantial governmental andlor international debt still facing countries everywhere. It appears that different combinations of traditional fiscal and monetary policy largely shifted the temporal impact of the shocks or altered the trade-offs among problem categories. It also appears that energy policy may be a more powerful tool with which to approach the possibility of future shocks than any combination of economic policies.     

Developments in juvenile justice during the decade of the 70s: Juvenile detention facilities

A number of important developments in juvenile justice during the decade of the 70s are identified. Data were obtained from a sample of juvenile detention facilities in the late 1960s and again, from the same sample, in the late 1970s. The data obtained included the perceived purpose of detention, information concerning the detainees and personnel, and procedural and program information. The two sets of data were compared to determine whether the developments in the juvenile justice system were reflected in the detention segment of the system.     

Homeownership affordability series Clashing demographics: Homeownership and affordability dilemmas

Abstract

This paper examines the competing effects of the major demographic factors affecting homeownership affordability in the 1990s. It briefly views the transition in housing eras and then examines long‐term demographic fundamentals, which represent parameters that can be anticipated with reasonable certainty and that define the broad boundaries of future housing demand. The first section, on household segmentation‐diversification, focuses on changes in household configurations and future living‐arrangement choices. Income variations by age and household configuration are evaluated next, after which homeownership variations by age and household configuration are reviewed. Both the uncertainty of future household segmentation and clashing demographic variations in income levels and home‐ownership rates define future housing market complexity and uncertainty.

Following that is a summary of the key demographic parameters and dilemmas emanating from the preceding analyses. A final section then explores the net effect of these factors on various housing market segments for the balance of the decade.     

Private market provision of low‐income housing: Historical perspective and future prospects

Abstract

The unaided private market provision of new low‐income housing is substantially a fantasy. There is little on the horizon to alter this situation in the next decade. The income/cost gap is so substantial as to overcome the decline in household formation and positive changes in job patterns that have been advanced as bridge mechanisms.

To set the debate in context, an overview of the demographic and economic future of the United States is provided and mainstream forecasts of economic and demographic trends affecting housing supply and demand are reviewed. Particular attention is given to demographic maturation and shrinkage, household diversification and segmentation, and income and poverty dynamics.     

Participation in a residential mobility program from the client's perspective: Findings from Gautreaux Two

Abstract

In 2002, the Gautreaux Two housing mobility program provided low‐income families living in Chicago public housing with the opportunity to move to more affluent, less racially isolated communities. This article presents findings on their complex search and moving process. Only about one‐third of enrolled families actually moved through the program ("leased‐up"). In‐depth interviews with a randomly chosen sample of 71 families and an additional 20 “likely mover” families showed that movers fell into four groups distinguished by personal characteristics that made it easier for them to move or by residence on Chicago's North Side.

Nonmovers faced a variety of obstacles, both external (a tight rental market, discrimination, and bureaucratic delays) and internal (limited experience and program comprehension, large household size, and health problems). Also, some nonmovers were too busy with work or school to engage in what proved to be an onerous process of identifying a suitable unit and moving.     

The United States in a world of rising regional powers: farewell Lilliput,hello Shanghai

Regional powers such as China, India, Russia, and to a lesser degree Brazil and South Africa, now occupy a significant role on the world stage. The United States, while still enjoying superpower status, has taken note. At the same time, the transnational nature of the challenges facing the world will require multilateral and bilateral co-operation perhaps unprecedented in modern history. How will the United States respond to these new requisites within the context of this changed world? While it is too early to assess the Obama administration's foreign policy substantively, it looks to be adopting an approach emphasising the building of consensus and multilateralism in its international engagement. Moreover, there is reason to expect that it will actively seek a more constructive set of relationships with regional powers. United States domestic political constraints may yet hamper Obama in this new approach, as might the type of response the new administration receives from old and new powers to its overtures. Whether the changes are more in tone than substance remains to be seen.