The Transformation of the Western State: The Growth of Democracy,Autocracy, and State Power Since 1800

This article uses POLITY II, a new dataset on the authority traits of 155 countries, to assess some general historical arguments about the dynamics of political change in Europe and Latin America from 1800 to 1986. The analysis, relying mainly on graphs, focuses first on the shifting balance between democratic and autocratic patterns in each world region and identifies some of the internal and international circumstances underlying the trends, and deviations from them. Trends in three indicators of state power also are examined in the two regions: the state's capacity to direct social and economic life, the coherence of political institutions, and military manpower. The state's capacity has increased steadily in both regions; coherence has increased in the European countries but not Latin America; while military power has fluctuated widley in both regions. The article is foundational to a series of more detailed longitudinal studies of the processes of state growth. Ted Robert Gurr is a professor of government and politics at the University of Maryland and Distinguished Scholar at the University's Center for International Development and Conflict Management (Mill Building, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742). Among his 14 books and monographs areWhy Men Rebel (awarded the Woodrow Wilson Prize as best book in political science of 1970).Patterns of Authority: A comparative Basis for Political Inquiry (with Harry Eckstein, 1975), andViolence in America, (3d edition. 1989). He is engaged in a long-term global study of minorities' involvement in conflict and its consequences and resolution. Keith Jaggers is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Colorado and research assistant in the Department's Center for Comparative Politics, Campus Box 333, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309. He is co-author with Will H. Moore of “Deprivation, Mobilization, and the State,” recently published in theJournal of Developing Societies, and is currently working on an empirical study of the impact of war on the growth of the state. Will H. Moore is a Ph.D. candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Colorado and research assistant in the Department's Center for Comparative Politics. He is also a co-author with Maro Ellena of a forthcoming article inWestern Political Quarterly on the cross-national determinants of political violence. His current research interests include the resolution of internal wars and the formation of coercive states.     

Governmental policies to reduce tax evasion: coerced behavior versus services and values development

Governments generally have at their disposal two types of tax compliance policies. One set of policy options coerces tax compliance by increasing risks for practicing tax evasion, while a second set of policies emphasizes development of supportive taxpaying values among citizens through service improvement and informational strategies. Tax agencies tend to favor coercive policies, but empirical research suggests that such policies are not in themselves fully adequate to fight tax evasion. Four hypotheses are offered which suggest the utility of service and values based policies and the need for increased investment in those areas of tax administration.     

The relationship between life satisfaction, risk-taking behaviors, and youth violence

This study builds on existing criminological theories and examines the role of life satisfaction and self-control in explaining youth violence. Using data from a stratified cluster sample of 5,414 public high school students who responded to the South Carolina Youth Risk Behavior Survey, the study examines the relationship between adolescents'perceptions of life satisfaction, behavioral risky acts, and self-reported acts of violence. Analyses indicate that higher levels of life satisfaction are associated with lower violence. Participation in work and involvement in health-related risk-taking behaviors pertaining to sex, drugs, and alcohol are also associated with increased violence. The implications of these findings for criminological theory and for school-based violence prevention programs are discussed.     

Voting for Pareto optimality: a multidimensional analysis

We compare unanimity rule and majority rule in their abilities to produce Pareto superior and Pareto optimal alternatives in fixed number of rounds of voting using a two-dimensional spatial voting model with random proposals, sincere proposals, and strategic proposals. Our findings show that for random or sincere proposals, majority rule is at least as likely to select a Pareto optimal outcome as unanimity rule. For strategic proposals, the subgame perfect equilibrium under unanimity rule is Pareto optimal. For other k-majority rules, the outcome is Pareto optimal or very close to it. For outcomes that are both Pareto optimal and Pareto superior, unanimity rule outperforms majority rule.     

Studying survivors of near-lethal suicide attempts as a proxy for completed suicide in prisons

Sex determination is a necessary step in the investigation of unidentified human remains from a forensic context. Teeth, as one of the strongest tissues in the human body, can be used for this purpose. Most studies of sexual dimorphism in teeth are based on the traditional mesiodistal and buccolingual crown measurements. The purpose of this study is to examine the degree of sexual dimorphism in permanent molars of modern Greeks using crown and cervical diagonal diameters, and to evaluate their applicability in sex determination. A total of 344 permanent molars in 107 individuals (53 male and 54 female) from the Athens Collection were examined. Crown and cervical diagonal diameters of both maxillary and mandibular molars were measured. It was found that males have larger molars than females and in 19 out of 24 dimensions measured male molars exceeded female molars significantly (P<0.05). The most dimorphic molars are the maxillary second molar, and the mandibular second and first molars. Although other molars were also sexually dimorphic they did not have a statistically significant difference in all dimensions. Cervical diagonal diameters have found to be more sexually diamorphic than crown diagonal diameters. In discriminant function analysis the variables entered more frequently were the cervical diagonal diameters mainly of mandibular molars. Classification accuracy was found to be 93% for the total sample, 77.4% for upper jaw, and 88.4% for the lower jaw. Accuracy rates were higher for cervical than crown diagonal diameters. The data generated from the present study suggest that this metric method can be useful and reliable for sex determination, especially when the traditional dental measurements are not applicable.     

Conceptualising Party-State Governance and Rule in Laos

ABSTRACT

This article develops a framework for conceptualising authoritarian governance and rule in the Lao People’s Democratic Republic. After introducing the national and academic context, which go a significant way towards understanding the paucity of comparative political work on Laos, we propose an approach to studying post-socialist authoritarian and single-party rule that highlights the key political-institutional, cultural-historical and spatial-environmental sources of party-state power and authority. In adopting this approach, we seek to redirect attention to the centralising structures of rule under the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party, illustrating how authoritarian institutions of the “party-state” operate in and through multiple scales, from the central to the local level. At a time when the country is garnering greater attention than at any time since the Vietnam War, we argue that this examination of critical transitions in Laos under conditions of resource-intensive development, intensifying regional and global integration, and durable one-party authoritarian rule, establishes a framework for future research on the party-state system in Laos, and for understanding and contextualising the Lao People’s Revolutionary Party regime in regional comparative perspective.     

Exit,voice and loyalty: Analytic and empirical developments

Abstract. This paper seeks to reconstruct and revitalize the famous Hirschman framework by providing a comprehensive review of the current use of 'exit, voice and loyalty'. We begin by critically examining Hirchman's original account, and then look at the way his argument has been extended in different fields both conceptually and empirically. We suggest that while advances have been made, the results so far are somewhat disappointing given the perceptiveness of the original insight. We believe this is because his apparently simple schema is more complex than it first appears, and different aspects of exit, of voice, and of empirical foundations of loyalty need to be analytically distinguished in order to produce testable empirical hypotheses about their relationships.     

Competing Risks, Persistence, and Desistance in Analyzing Recidivism

A statistical procedure is developed to analyze recidivism in samples whichare subject to the presence of desisters and to multiple modes ofreconviction. This allows for a more accurate study of individuals'transition and hazard in the type and timing of offenses following aspecific type of conviction. The use of a nonparametric approach forinvestigating failure in the presence of other acting causes is shown;initial estimators of the probabilities of reconviction for different typesof offenses are obtained, and the method can be used both to display thedata and to choose an appropriate parametric family for the survivaltimes. An exponential mixture model for competing risks is presented insuch a way that it allows us to adjust for concomitant variables and toassess their effects on the probabilities both of reconviction forpredetermined types of offenses and desistance and of the hazards ofreconviction; a method for assessing calibration of predicted survivalprobabilities is suggested. A 21-year follow-up of persons convicted ofindecent assault on a female in 1973 illustrates the methods; we find ahigh probability of sexual reconviction for individuals with previoussexual convictions and evidence of diversity and a raised hazard ofreconviction for young chronic offenders.