Estimating the Effect of Elite Communications on Public Opinion Using Instrumental Variables

A central question in the study of democratic polities is the extent to which elite opinion about policy shapes public opinion. Estimating the impact of elites on mass opinion is difficult because of endogeneity, omitted variables, and measurement error. This article proposes an identification strategy for estimating the causal effect of elite messages on public support for European integration employing changes in political institutions as instrumental variables. We find that more negative elite messages about European integration do indeed decrease public support for Europe. Our analysis suggests that OLS estimates are biased, underestimating the magnitude of the effect of elite messages by 50%. We also find no evidence that this effect varies for more politically aware individuals, and our estimates are inconsistent with a mainstreaming effect in which political awareness increases support for Europe in those settings in which elites have a favorable consensus on the benefits of integration.     

Together Forever? Explaining Exclusivity in Party–Firm Relations

Parties and firms are the key actors of representative democracy and capitalism, respectively, and the dynamic of attachment between them is a central feature of any political economy. This is the first article to analyse systematically the exclusivity of party–firm relations. We consider exclusivity at a point in time and exclusivity over time. Does a firm have a relationship with only one party at a given point in time, or is it close to more than one party? Does a firm maintain a relationship with only one party over time, or does it switch between parties? Most important, how do patterns of exclusivity impact on a firm's ability to lobby successfully? We propose a general theory, which explains patterns of party–firm relations by reference to the division of institutions and the type of party competition in a political system. A preliminary test of our theory with Polish survey data confirms our predictions, establishing a promising hypothesis for future research.     

The anatomy of Liberal support in Britain, 1974–1997

This article uses data from the British Election Study series since 1974 and qualitative data from interviews with key party personnel to investigate the social and political basis of Liberal support in Britain. There are three main sections to the article: the first deals with the social and demographic profile of the Liberal vote, while the second examines the political characteristics of its supporters. In the final section these findings are used to assess the Liberal Democrats' electoral strategy at the 2001 General Election and beyond. We find that Liberals tend to be drawn from a similar social background to Conservative supporters (particularly in term of class), but politically there has been an increasingly close relationship between the Liberal Democrats and the Labour Party.     

Adjustment of Homeless Adolescents to a Crisis Shelter: Application of a Stress and Coping Model

The present study examined the utility of a stress and coping model of adaptation to a homeless shelter among homeless adolescents. Seventy-eight homeless adolescents were interviewed and completed self-administered scales at Time 1 (day of shelter entry) and Time 2 (day of discharge). The mean duration of stay at the shelter was 7.23 days (SD = 7.01). Predictors included appraisal (threat and self-efficacy), coping resources, and coping strategies (productive, nonproductive, and reference to others coping). Adjustment outcomes were Time 1 measures of global distress, physical health, clinician- and youthworker-rated social adjustment, and externalizing behavior and Time 2 youthworker-rated social adjustment and goal achievement. Results of hierarchical regression analyses indicated that after controlling for the effects of relevant background variables (number of other shelters visited, sexual, emotional, and physical abuse), measures of coping resources, appraisal, and coping strategies evidenced distinct relations with measures of adjustment in ways consistent with the model's predictions with few exceptions. In cross-sectional analyses better Time 1 adjustment was related to reports of higher levels of coping resources, self-efficacy beliefs, and productive coping strategies, and reports of lower levels of threat appraisal and nonproductive coping strategies. Prospective analyses showed a link between reports of higher levels of reference to others coping strategies and greater goal achievement and, unexpectedly, an association between lower self-efficacy beliefs and better Time 2 youthworker-rated social adjustment. Hence, whereas prospective analyses provide only limited support for the use of a stress and coping model in explaining the adjustment of homeless adolescents to a crisis shelter, cross-sectional findings provide stronger support.     

An Examination of the Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN) and New Political Participation

The mobilisation of the Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN) on New Years Day 1994 in Mexico attracted considerable attention from those concerned with the democratic deficits of neoliberal globalisation and the increasing sense of individual powerlessness as states synchronise economic and public policy with the ideas and institutions of global capital. The paper argues that as a critical social movement the EZLN explores the meaning and practice of economic, political and social democracy. The EZLN practises a politics of radical democracy that incorporates a variety of strategies for enriching the democratic project. However, the EZLN's democratic project has little in common with the inclusive democracy project and yet the EZLN's project of radical democracy does cultivate a useful way of rethinking the site and nature of democracy in an age of globalisation when such institutions seem so increasingly inept.     

Electoral Cycles, Party Organization and Mobilization in Canada

Canadian political parties oscillate between periods of inter-election quiescence and electoral year mobilization. In this paper we measure, across a series of elections, organizational activity in inter-election periods as parties develop strategic positions and seek to reshape their bases, and then their subsequent mobilization strategies and successes. Our research strategy employs ecological models rooted in electoral district level data including party resources and activity (from annual financial accounts), census data describing the electoral districts, as well as conventional aggregate electoral data. Our initial models utilise evidence from Ontario, Canada's largest province, and cover several electoral cycles that witnessed a string of governmental turnovers. This analysis provides a more nuanced model of party systems than those based on simple election results. Even in a period of remarkable electoral flux, party activity and success appear to be deeply rooted in the diverse constituency social and political contexts of the system.     

Risk Aversion and the Pricing of Municipal Bonds

Risk aversion in the municipal bond market has been an assumption of most discussions regarding the municipal bond market, but has not been formally documented. The research in this article tests for the presence of risk aversion through comparing a risk-neutral bond yield with the observed yields on municipal bonds. A significant level of risk aversion is found to exist in the municipal bond market.     

Parkinson's Law and the New Public Management? Contracting Determinants and Service‐Quality Consequences in Public Education

Why is contracting used more frequently under some circumstances than others? What is its impact on spending for core mission and on service quality? These questions are explored with data from more than 1,000 Texas school districts. The evidence for a recent three‐year period shows that contracting is negatively related to spending on school districts' central task and is not positively associated with district performance. Why, then, do districts contract? While several variables are associated with the degree of contracting, the most interesting is the relative size of a district's bureaucratic staff. Furthermore, the relationship between contracting and bureaucracy is reciprocal: Each is associated with subsequent growth in the other. The dynamic suggests an updated version of Parkinson's law. These findings indicate the need for researchers to probe the causes and consequences of contracting more thoroughly to help public managers assess this important option.