From devil’s advocate to crime fighter: confirmation bias and debiasing techniques in prosecutorial decision-making

ABSTRACT

This research examines the role of confirmation bias in prosecutorial decisions before, during and after the prosecution. It also evaluates whether confirmation bias is reduced by changing the decision maker between arrest and prosecution. In Experiment 1, Swedish prosecutors (N?=?40) assessed 8 scenarios where they either decided themselves or were informed about a colleague’s decision to arrest or not arrest a suspect. Participants then rated how trustworthy the suspect’s statement was as well as the strength of new ambiguous evidence and the total evidence. They also decided whether to prosecute and what additional investigative measures to undertake. In Experiment 2 the same method was used with Law and Psychology students (N?=?60). Overall, prosecutors’ assessments before the prosecution indicated that they were able to act as their own devil’s advocate. Also, their assessments while deciding about whether to prosecute were reasonably balanced. However, after pressing charges, they displayed a more guilt-confirming mindset, suggesting they then took on the role as crime fighters. This differed from the student sample in which higher levels of guilt confirmation was displayed in relation to arrested suspects consistently before, during and after a prosecution decision. The role of prosecutors’ working experience is discussed.     

Reconsidering the Party Distances and Dimensionality of the Danish Folketing

Using the index of distances and the Optimal Classification method, the party positions and the dimensionality of the Danish Folketing is calculated from 1920 to 2005. The empirical results suggest that a one-dimensional model explains around 85 per cent of the legislative dimensionality in Denmark over time with only a modest presence of two or more dimensions in the 1970s. The rank order of party positions derived through the index of distance has higher face validity than the rankings derived through the Optimal Classification method. The Optimal Classification method produces a dimensionality measure which, when analysed, can be used to explain most of the events in Danish politics over the last 80 years. It is further argued that the shifts in the dimensionality can be explained by the number of parties in parliament and by historical incidents.     

Mental Health Problems among Prison Inmates: the Effect of Welfare Deficiencies,Drug Use and Self‐Efficacy

In this paper, we investigate the differential contribution of accumulated welfare deficiencies, drug use, and self‐efficacy on inmates' current symptoms of mental health problems. Few studies so far have investigated inmates' mental health based on empirical data covering both social and psychological predictors. Our analyses are aimed at the following research questions: (a) what is the relationship between welfare deficiencies, drug use, and symptom reporting among prison inmates? (b) is this relationship influenced by inmates' perceived self‐efficacy? and (c) how might this information be used to inform the discussion of challenges in prisoner re‐entry? Findings are based on a national survey among prison inmates in Norway, focusing on living conditions generally, as well as mental distress, drug use, and self‐efficacy. The findings indicate serious accumulation of disadvantage, and more welfare deficiencies among drug users and those suffering from mental distress. When it comes to prediction of mental distress, accumulation of welfare deficiencies and self‐efficacy both turned out as significant contributors. The findings are discussed both in terms of practical implications, and in terms of how they illustrate some of the shortcomings inherent in a traditional welfare research perspective.     

The Effects of Mixing Offenders with Non-Offenders: Findings from a Danish Quasi-Experiment

This study examines the effects of mixing offenders with non-offenders at Skejby half-way house in Denmark. Skejby half-way house constitutes an outstanding social experiment, as offenders are deliberately mixed with non-offenders in order to reduce their risk of recidivism. The treatment group consists of offenders who have stayed at Skejby half-way house while the controls are selected from residents of four other half-way houses. A Cox regression analysis reveals that the probability of reoffending is 21% lower for the treatment group than it is for the control group.     

Why negotiate a legally binding mercury convention?

The purpose of this paper is to explain how and why consensus was reached on a legally binding approach given the opposition of powerful actors. Why did the United States and key emerging economies change their positions? We apply tools from the regime formation literature—classical perspectives on power, interests and knowledge—and the use of different leadership tools to shed light on the issue. Knowledge-based intellectual leadership was exercised by the UNEP Secretariat, providing new information on the seriousness and scope of the problem. Power-based leadership through unilateral action was provided by the United States. When the United States changed position after change in domestic leadership, political costs increased for other opponents. Finally, interest-based instrumental leadership was provided by many proponents, with UNEP and among others the EU in the lead. Still, conflicts remain on control measures and the form of financial mechanism.     

Securitizing “spiritual-moral values” in Russia

This article examines how “spiritual-moral values” (SMV) became securitized, or defined as a matter of national security in Russia. I analyze speech acts to show how moves to securitize SMV spread from the political fringe to the center of power, and from individual sectors to the strategic level. This “moral turn” in Russian politics is not merely a superficial attempt of the elite to distract the masses and rally the conservative electorate. The securitization of SMV has wider implications: It is, in the most direct way, the regime’s way of preventing a “color revolution.” By introducing a “state of siege” to the sphere of fundamental moral values, this securitization aids the construction of a national identity that is incompatible with basic human rights. An existential threat is constructed in order to justify extraordinary measures and establish a new social contract in which modernization is sacrificed at the altar of security.     

Local Officials’ Support for PILOTs/SILOTs: Nonprofit Engagement,Economic Stress,and Politics

Nonprofit property tax exemption has become a major policy issue as the collapse of the housing market, the Great Recession, and property tax caps have threatened local tax collections. Consequently, many local governments have sought to obtain payments in lieu of taxes (PILOTs) from charities that are formally exempt from property taxes. Using a 2010 survey of local government officials in Indiana, this article examines whether support for PILOT policies is related to officials’ personal involvement with nonprofits, their views on government–nonprofit relationships, the type of position they hold, the level of economic distress in the county, local political conditions, and local nonprofit wealth. The findings support most of these hypotheses but also show that attitudes toward PILOTs appear to be shaped by somewhat different concerns than attitudes toward services in lieu of taxes (SILOTs).     

Interpreting Performance Information: Motivated Reasoning or Unbiased Comprehension

A main rationale of performance information is to empower citizens to make informed decisions by presenting them with unambiguous information about the performance of institutions. However, even objective, clear, and unambiguous performance information is subject to biased interpretation depending on whether the information is consistent with the prior beliefs held by those who receive the information. Integrating the theory of motivated reasoning with the literature on performance information, the authors hypothesize that performance information that is inconsistent with prior beliefs is less likely to be interpreted correctly than belief‐consistent information. Using randomized survey experiments in which respondents were presented with quantitative performance data, the authors show that subjects systematically interpret performance information in ways that conform with their prior beliefs. The findings question the assumption that providing performance information automatically increases knowledge about government performance, let alone improves political decisions.     

Drugged drivers in Norway with benzodiazepine detections

Norwegian drugged drivers with benzodiazepine (BZD) detections have been studied with regard to drug use pattern and rearrest rate. During 1995, 3343 drivers were apprehended by the police in Norway due to the suspicion of influence by drugs. Blood samples from all drivers were sent to the National Institute of Forensic Toxicology (NIFT). The samples were analysed using a standard program covering the most commonly abused drugs on the marked in Norway. BZDs, representing some of the most frequently detected drugs, were found in approximately 30% (n = 1051) of the cases, represented by 14% (n = 150) female and 86% (n = 901) male drivers. In 8% of the cases, one BZD only was detected, half of these cases with one BZD could reflect therapeutic use. One or more BZDs were combined with illegal drug(s) (73%), other prescribed drugs (10%), and/or alcohol (24%). 62% of the drivers with BZD detections, had earlier been arrested for the same offence, or six cases per rearrested driver. The frequency of earlier arrests were lower for female (34%) than for male (67%) drivers. Alcohol was most frequently found for those arrested for the first time before 1992, while BZD or illegal drugs were most frequently found for those with their first arrest during 1992-1995. Our study shows that apprehended drivers using BZD are mainly represented by drug abusers due to frequent multi-drug use, blood concentrations representing doses above therapeutic levels and high rearrest rate for the same offence. A treatment program or other reactions, are thus necessary in addition to fines, prison penalty and suspension of driving licence.